interest rates: Numbers Traveling in for the Holiday. - 11/26/25 07:39 AM
We prepare for Thanksgiving, family and the start of the holiday season with a side a data. In the past 2 days we have seen several reports with fresh and delayed data from the shutdown. In my last blog Short Week, Big Data I provided a menu of of impactful economic reports that would change the debt market. Lets look at what has happened.  
Consumer confidence hits a low point as job worries grow
Core Wholesale Prices(PPI) rose less than expected 
Retail sales softer than forecasted
Losses in private payroll are accelerating over the last 4 weeks (ADP)
Initial Jobless claims rose 5,000 last week
This is pointing … (3 comments)

interest rates: What a difference a day makes! - 11/21/25 06:00 AM
What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours. 
So true. Yesterday we received the BLS Jobs Report for September and it was a mixed bag. There was 119,000 jobs created, which exceeded expectations of 50,000.
The unemployment rate went up from 4.3% to 4.4 (side note the BLS rounds using the 3rd digit. the actual number was 4.44 if it came in at 4.45 the unemployment rate would have been 4.5%) 
Revisions to July and August showed adjustments lower. August was adjusted down from a positive 22,000 jobs created to a loss of 4,000 jobs 
Initial Jobless Claims last week dropped by 8,000 so … (1 comments)

interest rates: The Fed giveth and the Market taketh! - 09/18/25 09:03 AM
So, what a day yesterday! The Federal Reserve cut their rate by 25 basis points. We knew this August 22nd, and the market had priced it in by September 15th, so that meeting was just about what happens next. So, let’s look at the message.
The term Jerome Powell used was that there is a no risk-free path to meet their dual mandate of controlling inflation and maximum employment. Their policy had been restrictive in the past.  Their focus was inflation but now there is more risk to jobs. They are watching both. Tariffs have a smaller impact on inflation and other … (3 comments)

interest rates: Know when to hold them, know when to fold them - 09/11/25 10:01 AM

With less than 1 week until the September Federal Reserve Meeting, here is what we know.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautiously opened the door to a cut at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium last month, and more recent data showed the hiring slowdown extended into August.   A slowing jobs market has prompted Wall Street to price a more aggressive trajectory of rate cuts, with a growing number of economists now seeing a quarter-point rate cut at each of this year’s three remaining meetings, from a previous forecast of just two cuts. However, the Market is pricing in a cut of over 25 … (0 comments)

interest rates: It’s a Beautiful Day!!! - 09/08/25 06:59 AM
After an Anemic Jobs report on Friday, Mortgage Bonds are in Rally Mode! That rally continues today. We are seeing the 10-year bond approaching 4%.
So, what happened? We are witnessing the continuing weakening in the job market. The August reading was expected at 75,000 jobs created and it came in at 22,000. The previous 2 months were revised lower. We had a negative -13,000 jobs in June. June’s revision was the first monthly loss in 54 months of positive job creation. In addition to Friday’s jobs report, we had a couple of employment reports that came out earlier in the week … (1 comments)

interest rates: Is it Time to Refinance my Mortgage? - 08/27/25 07:23 AM

That’s a good question. In the past 3 years rates have been between the high 6% to mid-7% range, so there is definitely an opportunity to make your home less expensive. But when? How do I maximize my savings? If I am going to pay for another closing (yes you are going to pay, whether it is rolled into the loan or subsidized into the rate) I want the biggest bang for my buck.
We should be entering a rate cutting cycle. We have indication from the Federal Reserve that they are shifting focus from inflation to labor market weakness (read all … (1 comments)

interest rates: Is that light at the end of the tunnel or a train barreling at us? - 08/26/25 08:43 AM

FRIDAY! What a day! What a speech by Jerome Powell! In case you missed it, it appears he’s laying the groundwork for a rate cut on September 17th. That had a positive effect on the Markets Friday. Equities and Mortgage-backed securities rose, and Bond yields fell.
BUT WAIT!
There are still important economic reports coming out before then, that could impact cutting, the amount cut and how many more there will be. Here are the ifs.
Inflation
 We get the favorite inflation gauge of inflation the PCE on Friday and we also get a CPI and PPI before September 17th. These are indicators of pricing … (2 comments)

interest rates: What are interest rates going to do? Part 2 The Real Fed Governors of the Reserve - 08/21/25 05:01 AM
Yesterday we asked the number #1 question in Real Estate and Mortgage lending, “What are interest rates going to do?” We mentioned that the only sure thing is the meeting will happen, and the Federal Reserve will let the world know at 2PM Wednesday September 17th.
The Federal Reserve
There will be lots of Fed Speak, Jackson Hole. Half of the Federal Reserve Governors will speak this week and next with the main event Friday at 10 AM EST Jerome Powell.
 We received the Fed Minutes from the last meeting that shows they are worried about the labor market and inflation, which are their … (1 comments)

interest rates: What are interest rates going to do? - 08/20/25 08:59 AM
That is the number 1 question I am asked, “What are interest rates going to do?” Isn’t that a wonderous question. If I only Knew! There are however some clues. So, let’s peal back the onion.
The only sure thing is that the Meeting announcement is scheduled for September 17th at 2:00 PM. 
For the next 29 days we will have Action Pack Data, Meetings and Policy turmoil to deal with. In the past Economic Fundamentals Drove the bus. This year it is Policy driving the bus and a times they tend to get lost without clear direction.
Here’s what we know will happen
Meetings … (4 comments)