recession: Hope on the horizon...credit markets unthawing finally.... - 10/16/08 08:34 AM
Are we finally seeing a turnaround in the credit markets.  News the past few days is steadily getting more positive in regards to rigid credit markets throughout the world.  Everyone is wondering now why stocks continue to slide, but the reality is that these tight credit markets have had a noticeable affect on small and mid sized businesses throughout the world.  Even larger manufactures like GM are taking a beating in regards to the lack of easy capital.  The world government bailouts are finally starting to take affect though, as we can see in the following articles.
 
Global News
Signs … (5 comments)

recession: Total writedown's now at 549 BILLION!!! - 09/29/08 06:00 AM
If you've been watching the "ABC" soup financial shows, you know that experts are thinking that this bailout is just the tip of the iceberg!  Here is a heart warming article in regards to the major players and how much they currently are in the hole.  549 BILLION WRITEDOWN
$700 Billion is a band-aid at this point.  We may need double that amount to ride out the rest of the storm.  We haven't even cycled through most of the "stated" and "Option-ARM" programs.  Hopefully these borrowers value their credit scores more then the subprime crowd, but there is no guarantee that … (1 comments)

recession: Do we really need a bailout? - 09/26/08 05:23 AM
Headlines blare "Bailout or else!", and politicians are taking front and center stage across media venues throughout the country.  The financial industry stands on the edge of an abyss, or that's what the press wants you to believe.  How real is the crisis, and should Congress act quickly at this juncture to restore faith in the financial markets?
The reality is this problem is much like a person who eats fast food through out most of his life.  He gets heavy, and doctors and family suggest he go on a diet and eat better foods. But the fast food is just … (3 comments)

recession: Oil Speculators beware! - 07/28/08 03:47 AM
Interesting article this morning on bloomberg regarding Asian economies.  <ARTICLE>
What this article is not saying is that inflated oil demand with these various countries is close to the end.  Malaysia, India and China are not going to be able to continue subsidizing their economies and in result these businesses will have to absorb the higher cost of fuel. 
Even though the Asian economies are still posting impressive gains, the infrastructure and reduction in subsidies will have a toll.  Stagflation is probably worse then a depression in some ways.  The painful reality is that interest rates will need to go through … (4 comments)

recession: Oil continues to drop....optimism reigns!! atleast for now.... - 07/17/08 01:27 PM
Sometimes in life your right, and hopefully I am at this point in regards to oil.  In my last few blog posts I've been suggesting that oil is going to soon be dropping to more manageable levels.  It hit the peak recently and has in the past few days began to drop and drop and drop.  I can just hear George Soros rubbing his hands in glea as his short bet's are making him BILLIONS of dollars.
This has been one of the biggest sucker plays in recent history.  I'm wondering when the SEC is going to announce an investigation of … (2 comments)

recession: All News is not negative....Recovery by 2009? - 07/14/08 11:53 AM
Despite reading headlines screaming that Oil may go to $300 a barrel, the reality is that we may see $90.00 a barrel by the first quarter of next year..  Airlines Cut oil.
It does not sound like your airfares will be dropping much, because the Airlines are also grounding a number of flights over the next two years.  But if gas goes back down to $90.00 a barrel, then say hello to $3.00 bucks or less a gallon by spring of 2009.  This will be a major relief to many, and perhaps the bank situation will have stabilized by that point … (14 comments)

recession: Interesting article on the real estate bubble.....must read! - 06/05/08 01:04 PM
I'm not sure there are many that would disagree that our economic system is in serious need of an over haul. But serious over hauls can be exteremly painful.  The following article I stumbled across while searching for the estimated value of the US real estate market.  But I think most of you will find the writers observations to be interesting if not somewhat scary. 
The doom and gloomers have been predicting depression for some time, they maybe correct ultimately, but the question is WHEN???
 
Real Estate Bubble Article
… (10 comments)

recession: The Federal Reserve may have saved us from a Depression!! - 03/17/08 12:56 PM
I may get some interesting comments in regards to this post, but there needs to be some reasonable commentary in this sea of hysteria.  Let's face the fact's everyone, the mortgage and real estate markets in certain states were simply out of control.  Rampant market inflation, and very little regards to traditional lending guidelines are the major reasons we're in this mess.  In addition we're dealing with higher energy cost's, and now those investors who can't get the big fix in real estate are pouring money into the only safe havens they know of currently, which are commodities.
So now there are … (10 comments)

recession: Should I increase my advertising budget during a recession? - 03/10/08 06:28 AM
Recession talk....I guess it's not "if" anymore, but how bad is this one going to be?  Recessions are scary words, but in reality many actually thrive.  The current credit crunch is hurting everyone in the mortgage and real estate industries, but like any market in the past, it will rebound eventually.  The damage however will be felt by everyone, and naturally people spend less during recessions.  So how do you get more loans or real estate deals during these times, the reality is you may need to spend more to acquire more deals.
Interesting quote I found while researching business to business … (11 comments)

recession: Are you worried about interest rates? - 02/27/08 05:00 AM
Most consumers are worried about interest rates, but recent bloomberg articles and headlines in my local paper are now postulating the theory that Stagflation may rear its ugly head!  What's stagflation, well the simple definition is that it means that interest rates increase, wages decrease, business decreases, and it's a self defeating spiral that is difficult to overcome.
So are these newspaper and media reports correct, or are they overblown?  Historically they maybe correct, but how long before we actually see 1980's type interest rates?  The answer maybe more complicated then this simple explanation, but hey if you can do better then … (1 comments)

recession: For yea doubters of the Deseret News story - 02/15/08 04:23 PM
This blog post is a direct response to a number of comments I read from the following Desert News article..
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,695253362,00.html 
It's interesting to read most of these comments in regards to this article.  Allot of doom and gloom and I wonder if some people post comments to just get a rise from other readers.  The fact's are the fact's though and what Mansell states in the article is actually true...LIKE IT OR NOT!
Here is the reality folks.  The Utah market didn't take off until the end of 2004, then we had an amazing spring/summer in 2005,  another great year in 2006, and … (1 comments)

recession: If your going to buy a home, you better do it soon.... - 11/13/07 03:19 AM
Are we looking at run away interest rates...Read this article and you tell me, (Bond market worried)
With higher energy costs, and the weakening dollar, not much could push this market over the edge.  Hyper Inflation would be the first result, which would then be followed by a huge deflationary spiral or what our grandpa liked to call "DEPRESSION".
In the immediate future, if your looking at buying now, you better not wait any longer.  Rates are still in the 6% range, but these type of articles are signs that things are about to change. So if you've been thinking about buying or … (0 comments)

recession: Will 2008-2009 be the Great Recession or Depression of our era? - 11/12/07 04:09 AM
I think the jury is out, and the question isn't if we're heading into a recession, but the real question is how long will this recession affect markets, and how harsh will it become.  This morning I read an alarming article about the impending recession, Impending Financial Hurricane, Now I know that you don't want to be overly negative because of some bad news you read on the Internet.  But neither should you stick your fingers in your ears and close your eyes when the train is heading towards you. I guess the question is the media over blowing the risks … (12 comments)

recession: Is recession just around the corner..... - 10/22/07 12:36 PM
According to the media, according to numerous blogs and internet posts a recession is just around the corner. But as history show's us, is a recession really going to hit in 2007-2008.  This recent article I found may make you rethink that we're heading into a recession...atleast within the next few months, but it could get ugly later on.  The article I'm speaking about can be found, "is it meltdown time for the economy"
Geralds view is particulary interesting because he actually backs it up with historical examples of previous markets.  Anyway enjoy the article.
… (0 comments)