economic markets: The Double Dip? Is it Here?
- 08/05/11 08:00 AM
Today's news was a breath of fresh air. Last night every talk show and news show talked about yesterday's market collapse. Most everyone last night believe that there's an inevitable double dip that will take our economy down again. Yesterday it was reported that one if 4 people can't afford a $2,000 repair on their car. One in 8 can't afford a $1,000 repair on their car. Today's news was relieving (for the moment) because...
v 117,000 new N0n-farm Payrolls in July. June was revised up to 46,000 from 18,000. Expectations were officially for 85,000, although the panic had investors … (4 comments)
economic markets: Tracking Mortgage Backed Securities Movement Recently....
- 06/09/09 12:59 AM
The enclosed chart includes 4.0 and 4.5 MBS (mortgage backed securities) closing prices for the past 6-weeks. I don't recall ever seeing market deterioration of this magnitude in such a short period of time. It's just amazing as there's really nothing to support this movement. Needless to say, the ONLY THING that's been helping our economy is the mortgage industry. NOW....the feds and free market are stopping that. Do you know that the end of every recession was led by the surge of the mortgage and, invariably, real estate industry? The government's going to have to act quickly otherwise we'll quickly … (2 comments)
economic markets: Economic Data
- 04/01/09 02:47 AM
Economic data should steal some headlines away from the G-20 pre-meetings today and reports from the Obama camp that bankruptcy may be the most likely option for some carmakers. The ISM Manufacturing, Pending home sales, and Vehicle sales are expected to show mild gains while ADP employment change is expected to post another massive loss of 663,000. Home prices dropped 19% in January according to the S&P/Case Shiller index. A glut of unsold properties may keep prices low, shrinking household wealth and damping spending. Sales of new and previously-owned homes rose in February, indicating the housing slump may ease as policy efforts to unclog credit and … (2 comments)
economic markets: Why Aren't the Rates Lowers????? All Signs Say Lower Rates....Why Not?
- 03/27/09 01:48 AM
This is very promising evidence that the government is now starting to direct their buying power in the lower coupon range. Yesterday, over 60% of this weeks Mortgage Backed Security purchases were in the 4.0% coupon....THAT'S a whole 1/2 percent better than what you've been looking at recently. It's huge. So...... Rates are going to drop now right? Er...NOT!!!!!!!!!!!! So why haven't rates dropped more? Three reasons why rates haven't been effected too much: 1) As rates drop, the value of existing servicing portfolio's decline due to higher potential that loans will pay off early. 2) Large whole loan purchasers (our investors) … (6 comments)
economic markets: See What I found out from the Fed....
- 12/17/08 04:45 AM
This is great...according to market reports the Fed doesn't think that the Fed lowering of the Fed lending rate is sufficient to stimulate the economy. If you think about it. If the Fed lending rate drops to -1.0.... in other words, the Government is paying to borrow money, it really doesn't matter if banks won't lend you money. I heard on the radio that in order to truly stimulate the economy we need to jump start the mortgage lending process and the fed was going to take action to overstimulate MORTGAGE RATES. This is huge for our business and the economy … (6 comments)
economic markets: Today's Stunning Economic News....Great for Rates
- 12/16/08 08:41 AM
Good afternoon, Fed cut the target Fed Funds rate from 1.00% to a range between 0.00% and 0.25%. The 75 basis point cut was larger than the consensus forecast for a 50 basis point cut. This marked the first time that the Fed has targeted a range rather than a fixed value, reflecting that it is more difficult for the Fed to precisely target a rate in the current market environment. The Fed's statement confirmed that economic conditions have worsened recently and suggested that rates will remain at extremely low levels for an extended period of time. Also notable, the Fed … (7 comments)
economic markets: One Take on the Fannie Freddie Takeover!!!!!
- 09/08/08 03:52 AM
As you no doubt know, the federal government yesterday took significant action with regard to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The basic facts are below. In addition I have attached several fact sheets from the Department of Treasury. The Treasury indicates that they are acting primarily out of concern that Fannie and Freddie's ability to fulfill their mission has deteriorated, particularly with regard to the capacity of their capital to absorb further losses while supporting new business activity. As a result, Fannie and Freddie's regulator is taking over all of the duties and powers of the management and board of the … (8 comments)
economic markets: Mortgage Rates are Dropping - - - Fannie Freddie fallout!
- 09/08/08 02:01 AM
Mortgage Backed Securities are up 94 basis points right now. That means we should see rates drop another .125 to .25% today. It's horrible that Fannie and Freddie mismanaged themselves so much that the government needed to step in over the weekend to run them. Evidently this was done so that the Japanese and Chinese would still consider Mortgage Backed Securities good investments. Let's see if this is enough stimulus to jump start the real estate market. In any event rates have dropped for today. Let's see what the full impact of this move is. … (3 comments)
economic markets: Foreclosures up 121%, but ECONOMIC REVISIONS suggest ecopnomic stabilization....Go Figure!!!!!!!
- 07/25/08 03:09 PM
U.S. new home sales fell marginally in June but the pace was much higher than expected due to +50k of revisions over the past three months. Economists were surprised by the report and said it may be a tentative sign of stabilization. Some Cheif Strategists suggest that it "paints a brighter picture (than previously portrayed). We'll see.....I can't believe that this is more than just a blip. We'll see....time will tell....the proof will be in following economic data results. Sales fell 0.6% to an annual pace of 530k sales in June's U.S. Census Bureau report on Friday. April's new home sales … (9 comments)
economic markets: Bernanke's Commentary - - Today is just like 1975
- 06/04/08 02:30 PM
Bernanke spoke......his BOTTOM LINE: In a speech focusing on two key areas -- energy and productivity -he contrasts today with 1975, the year he graduated from Harvard. For the most part, with appropriate caveats, his view on today looks more constructive. News wire headlines focusing on the fact that inflation is "significantly higher" than the Fed wants are accurate but not fully reflective of the tone of the speech, which does not comment in any specific way on near-term policy direction or risks. MAIN POINTS: 1. In a Class Day speech at Harvard, Bernanke compares the economic challenges facing the economy … (0 comments)
economic markets: High Unemployment bodes well for interest rates...unfortunately.
- 01/04/08 02:56 AM
Today's Market CommentaryThe curve steepened slightly on Thursday with the two-year's yield falling 5bp while the ten-year was little changed and the yield on the long-bond rose a touch. Trading activity was light ahead of today's payroll report. This morning, bond prices are sharply higher with two to five-year yields down 15bp to their lowest levels of this cycle following a disappointing employment report. The economy created a mere 18,000 non-farm jobs in December, well below the anemic estimates of 70,000. The prior report was revised higher by 20,000. The unemployment rate surged to 5%, up 0.3% to its highest level … (0 comments)
1 “Let not your heart be troubled; you believe in God, believe also in Me. 2 In My Father’s house are many mansions; if it were not so, I would have told you. I go to prepare a place for you. 3 And if I go and prepare a place for you, I will come again and receive you to Myself; that where I am, there you may be also. 4 And where I go you know, and the way you know.” (John 14:1-4, New King James Version)
Today's news was a breath of fresh air. Last night every talk show and news show talked about yesterday's market collapse. Most everyone last night believe that there's an inevitable double dip that will take our economy down again. 
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