home values: All Real Estate Is Local, But... - 08/17/09 03:40 PM
The NAR published their quarterly metro home value report this past week.  While there were some bright spots like Elmira, NY, which showed 11.3% year over year appreciation, there is also continued systemic weakness throughout our countries housing markets.
Broadly speaking, the median home value fell -15.6% from the 2Q of 2008 to the 2Q of 2009, this is the steepest decline on record for this quarterly report.
Additionally, all four regions within the United States were down.  The Northeast, Midwest, South, and West experienced home value declines of -9.7%, -8.6%, -10.3%, and -26.6% respectively.  While all real estate is local, every … (4 comments)

home values: CNNMoney: "Home prices up for 1st time in 3 years" - 07/28/09 03:49 PM
With all of the headlines being thrown around, often times things are taken out of context, this is one of those times.
CNNMoney.com is reporting today that according to the S&P Case Shiller home price index that home prices are up.  And they were...month over month.
Home prices were also up month over month in June according to the National Association of REALTORS.
Unfortunately, month over month changes in home prices is highly unreliable due to seasonal variances.
In fact, month over month changes are deemed so unreliable that the NAR does not even measure the percentage change on their monthly existing … (5 comments)

home values: Case-Shiller: Home Values Down -18.1% Year Over Year - 07/01/09 05:42 AM
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, home values declined by -18.1% from April of 2008 to April of 2009.
While real estate bulls will tout that the rate of decline is slowing down, there are two counter arguments that need to be considered.
First, according to the NAR, home values declines are not slowing down, in fact they jumped in May.  Here is what the year over year percentage change in the median home value has looked like over the past several months according to the NAR:
Jun 2008:  -6.1%
Jul 2008:  -7.1%
Aug 2008:  -9.5%
Sep 2008:  -9.0%
Oct 2008:  -11.3%
(2 comments)

home values: Shiller, Bank Stress Tests, And 48% Home Value Declines - 06/07/09 10:50 AM
According to an article in The New York Times by Robert Shiller of the Case-Shiller home price index, the recent government bank stress tests were in the anticipation of a 41% fall in home values.  The tests also included a "more adverse" drop of 48 percent from the high water mark in 2006.
In 2006, according to the NAR, the median home value was $221,900.  As recently as April of 2009, the median home value in the United States had plunged to $170,200.  In other words, the median home value has already fallen over 23%.  And yes, I know all real estate is local, but … (9 comments)

home values: Case-Shiller: Home Prices Fall By 19.1% In First Quarter - 05/26/09 01:30 AM
According to Case-Shiller, home prices dropped -19.1% in the first quarter and are now down -32.2% since peaking in the second quarter of 2006.
While we can debate the accuracy in terms of the percentage changewith the Case-Shiller index as there are a couple of other indexes that track home values with varrying percentage declines, the on thing that is not up for debate is the trend that the housing market is still in a free fall in terms of home values. 
The NAR data also points to continued and precipitous home value declines.
Now while this data is concerning, keep in mind … (2 comments)

home values: Home Prices Lost For A Generation? - 05/11/09 12:13 PM
This past week John F. Wasik wrote an article on Bloomberg.com titled, "U.S. Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation".
While I think a "generation" may be an extreme analogy, a lost decade for real estate values is well within our sights based on the continuing supply and demand imbalance for real estate.
A couple of things are worth pointing out:
The big picture is that the current month's supply of housing represents the relationship between supply and demand; this is the relationship which drives home values.  The month's supply of housing has only improved by 2% from last year.  In March of 2009 … (5 comments)

home values: Home Prices Fall 19% From Last Year - 03/31/09 05:21 AM
According to article by Reuters, Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller is reporting that home values fell -19% in January from last year, this is the largest year over year decline on record.  In other words despite all of the efforts by the government, home value losses are actually accelerating.
All 20 of the metro areas that are included in the report showed a decline in home values from last year.
Additionally, home values for the 20 metro index are down 29.1% from their peak in the second quarter of 2006.
Ordinarily I don't put too much stock in past appreciation because it represents only what happened last … (3 comments)

 
Mark MacKenzie

Mark MacKenzie

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