mortgage bankers association: MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Inch Up - 07/22/09 04:19 PM
After falling 9.4% last week to a 7-week low, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage purchaseapplications moderated and rose 1.3% to 262.1.  This was despite the fact that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped from 5.05% to 5.31% for the week ending July 17th.
The 262.1 reading represents continued reluctance of consumers to apply for new credit to purchase real estate despite record housing affordability and an $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit.
In fact, neither the historically low mortgage rates nor the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit has had any meaningful impact on demand.  Here is a … (3 comments)

mortgage bankers association: MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Fall As Rates Ease - 07/01/09 01:52 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the weekly mortgage purchase application index fell -4.5% to 267.7 as mortgage rates eased from 5.44% to 5.34%.
The weekly purchase application had hit a 10-week high last week when it rose to 280.3.
And while the index did slip this past week, what we continue to see is that mortgage purchase applications, much like the actual demand for real estate, has been largely unaffected by sub 5% mortgage rates.
Here is a comparison between NAR's seasonally adjusted existing home sales and Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate mortgage survey over the past several months, this data reveals that record … (0 comments)

mortgage bankers association: MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Hit 10-Week High - 06/24/09 12:58 AM
In the latest sign that the housing market is indifferent to sub 5% mortgage rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the mortgage purchase application index jumped 7.3% to 280.3, the highest reading in over 10 weeks.  This was despite the fact the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.44% for the week ending June 19th.
Here is a comparison between NAR's seasonally adjusted existing home sales and Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate mortgage survey over the past several months, this data reveals that record low mortgage rates have had no meaningful impact on demand.  You can call it the law of diminishing returns, price … (6 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Slip 3.5% For The Week - 06/18/09 04:13 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association and their weekly survey of mortgage applications, the mortgage purchase application index slipped 3.5% to 261.2 as rates moderated from 5.57% to 5.5% for the week.
The four-week moving average for the purchase index is up 0.7% since rates have surged nearly a full percentage point.
This data gives further support to my argument that mortgages rates below 5% have had or will have little if any impact on stimulating new demand for real estate.  In fact, to take it one step further, rates below 6% have had virtually no impact on demand.  Unfortunately, it cost the Fed … (3 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Hold Steady - 06/10/09 02:29 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association and their weekly survey of applications, mortgage purchase applications are holding steady despite a recent surge in mortgage rates.
The purchase application index rose 1.1% from last week to 270.7 despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage surging from 5.25% to 5.57%.
Not that anybody should be surprised by this "resilience" as there has been virtually no stimulative impact on demand for mortgage purchase applications or demand for real estate as rates plunged to historic lows.
Here is a comparison between NAR's seasonally adjusted existing home sales and Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate mortgage survey over the past several months:
Sep … (4 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Rates Jump To 4-Month High - 06/05/09 02:26 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced on Wednesday that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped from 4.81% to 5.25%, the highest rate since the week of February 3rd when the 30-year hit 5.28%.
While this may be a concern for some in Washington or at the NAR, the past several months of home sales tell a different story.  What we have seen over the past five months is that there has not been any difference in the demand for real estate as rates have fallen nearly 1.5 points, from 6% to nearly 4.5%.  It was never about lower mortgage rates.
With housing affordability already the … (2 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Indifferent To Rising Rates - 06/04/09 03:27 PM
Despite mortgage rates surging from 4.81% to 5.25% for the past week, mortgage purchase applications increased 4.3% to a reading of 267.7.
While 267.7 is still not indicative of strong demand for real estate, what is interesting is that at least for the interim, demand was not negatively impacted by rising rates, nor will it be as long as rates stay below 6%.
Over the past several months, going all the way back to December 3rd of 2008, when mortgages rates plunged from 5.99% to 5.47%, demand for real estate has been largely unaffected by historically low mortgage rates.
Here is … (2 comments)

mortgage bankers association: A (New) record 12.07% of mortgages at least 30 days late - 05/31/09 01:35 AM
About three months ago the Mortgage Bankers Association published their quarterly national delinquency survey which showed that a record 11.18% of mortgages were at least 30 days late.
Now, here we are 90 days later and we have a new record, 12.07% of mortgages were either at least one payment past due or were in foreclosure.
Already during the first quarter of this year, foreclosure actions have been started on 1.37% or approximately 616,000 homes.  And considering that major foreclosure moratoriums didn't expire until the end of March, you can see how these numbers are going to accelerate.
Rick Sharga, the senior vice president … (5 comments)

mortgage bankers association: MBA: Mortgage Rates Hit 9-Week High - 05/28/09 11:36 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association and their weekly mortgage application index, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped from 4.69% last week to 4.81% this week, a new 9-week high.
While this modest rise in mortgage rates off of their recent historic lows will negatively impact housing affordability, it is not likely to have any impact on actual demand for real estate.  As I have written about before, it is no longer about housing affordability, housing affordability, according to the NAR, even as recent as November of 2008 when mortgage rates were at 6.26%, was already the highest on record dating back to 1973. 
(1 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Remain Sluggish - 05/27/09 02:00 AM
Despite historically low mortgage rates, a first time home buyer tax credit, record housing affordability, and a significant but albeit skeptical surge in consumer confidence (if consumer confidence is so high, why aren't more people applying to purchase a home?) yesterday, the mortgage purchase application index remains anemic.
The mortgage bankers association announced today that their mortgage purchase index rose just 1% from last week to 256.6, well below a rating that would support meaningful demand for real estate. In fact, out of the past 17 weeks, only once has the index risen above 268.
To put this into perspective, from December … (2 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Down 4.4% - 05/20/09 01:51 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the mortgage purchase application index was down -4.4% from last week to a seasonally adjusted rate of 254.
I continue to write about this index every week waiting for a signal that demand for real estate is going to pick up for the peak buying season this summer but there simply has not been any indication of this.
The systemic problem that continues to plague the housing market is that there are too many homes for sale and not enough demand for them, in other words, there is a supply and demand imbalance.
What we are seeing is … (0 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Remain Sluggish - 05/14/09 01:21 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association released their weekly mortgage purchase application index on Wednesday which showed a modest 0.5% increase from the previous week to 265.7.
The 265.7 is an indication of continued weak demand for real estate.  To give you an example, during the four weeks in January, the purchase index averaged 309.4.  And yet even despite this higher reading in January, the seasonally adjusted pace of home sales in February and March were only 4.71 million and 4.57 million home sales respectively.
What the past several weeks of this index is indicating is that home sales in June and July, the peak … (6 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Off Of Their 8-Week Low - 05/07/09 03:49 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced on Wednesday that the mortgage purchase application rose 5% to 264.3 despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumping from 4.62% to 4.79%.
While the reading of 264.3 is an increase from the previous weeks' reading which was an 8-week low, the 4-week moving average is still down -3.1% for the mortgage purchase application index. 
The important question that these numbers bring up is whether or not we will see a surge in home sales during the summer season as many people have been hoping for.  What we do know is that as major foreclosure moratoriums have expired in March, we can … (3 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Sink To 8-Week Low - 04/30/09 03:31 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association released their weekly mortgage application survey on Wednesday which showed that the mortgage purchase application index has dipped to an 8-week low to 251.6.  This was despite the fact that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage declined from 4.73% to 4.62% this week.
The mortgage purchase application index has shown continued weakness over the past 13 weeks or approximately 3 months.  During this span the purchase application index has averaged only 258.  This would indicate that home sales in April, May, and possibly June will reflect weak demand for real estate.
To give this 258 number some perspective, the index hit a … (3 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Decline Again - 04/22/09 03:29 PM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the mortgage purchase application index fell to its lowest level in nearly six weeks to 253, a decline of 4.2% from the week before.  This was despite the fact that the average 30-year fixed rate mortgatge continues to hover at 4.73%.
If you are wondering what home sales are going to look like in May and June, based on the past couple of weeks of this data, there is a pretty good chance home sales are going to be flat, and that is a problem considering that the number of foreclosures are surging based on the expiration of … (0 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Dive Despite Historic Rates - 04/18/09 11:11 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced that mortgage purchase applications declined -11.3% to 264.1 from last week despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage holding at 4.70%.
Despite the historically low mortgage rates, the four-week moving average for the purchase index is up just 0.6%.
What this index continues to communicate is that despite four consecutive weeks in which the 30-year mortgage has averaged 4.66%, there has not been any meaningful impact on demand for purchase mortgages applications or subsequently real estate. 
And the two reasons why low mortgage rates have not had a meaningful impact on demand is because housing affordability since December of 2008 has been the … (2 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications: Fact or Fiction - 04/11/09 08:27 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage purchase applications hit a 10-week high when the index jumped 11.1% to 297.7; this despite the fact that the 30-year fixed rose from 4.61% to 4,73% this week.
The last time the index saw this type of strength was during the week ending January 28th when the index measured 294.3 and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.22%
What remains to be seen is whether or not the mortgage purchase applications will actually translate into home sales.  And the reason for my skepticism is that during December of 2008 and January of 2009, we … (4 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications Indifferent to Historic Rates - 04/01/09 05:33 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association published their weekly mortgage application survey which showed that mortgage purchase applications increased just 0.1% despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage hovering at 4.61%, the lowest on record.
I have written about it several times before, the housing market is no longer being negatively impacted by housing affordability.  And as a result of this, the declines in mortgage rates that we are seeing which are a product of the $1.25 trillion that the Fed has invested in mortgage backed securities, are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on demand for real estate.
The problem is that Washington is still … (2 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage purchase applications indifferent to lower rates - 03/26/09 06:05 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association released their weekly mortgage purchase application which showed that despite the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage plunging from 4.89% to 4.63% (the lowest on record for the survey since 1990), the seasonally adjusted purchase application index only increased 4.2% from 257.1 to 267.8. 
To give this 267.8 seasonally adjusted purchase index some context, during the week of November 26th of 2008 when the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.99%, the purchase index was 261.6.  In other words, despite the 30-year rate being nearly 1.4 points lower today than it was the last week of November of 2008, there is virtually … (2 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage purchase applications still struggling - 03/18/09 07:39 AM
The mortgage bankers association announced today that despite a surge in refinance applications, purchase applications remain at depressed levels.
Specifically, the mortgage purchase index rose only 1.5% from last week to 257.1.  While this index is the highest it has been in four weeks, it is representative of very weak demand for real estate which will likely be reflected in the April and May home sales data. 
The index is also representative of the fact that the new $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit has not had any meaningful impact on demand.  On February 13th, Congress voted to approve the … (6 comments)

 
Mark MacKenzie

Mark MacKenzie

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