mortgage bankers association: Mortgage purchase applications continue to face a headwind - 03/11/09 03:11 AM
Despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage sinking below 5% to 4.96%, and despite housing affordability being at a record high, and despite an $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, Americans continue to show very little interest in buying homes.
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced today that the mortgage purchase index still remains low at 253.3 despite rising 7.1% from last week.  To give this number some context, three weeks ago, before President Obama signed off on the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, the purchase index stood at 257.3.
What this means, is what I have thought initially, and that was that … (1 comments)

mortgage bankers association: A record 11.18% of mortgages at least 30 days late - 03/05/09 12:49 PM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association and an article put out by Reuters, a record 11.18% of one to four unit residences were at least 30 days late on their mortgage payment.
And while some people, and I'm not one of them, may find some solace with Obama's $275 billion sweeping housing and mortgage plan, it is worth noting that despite previous loan modification efforts, nearly 60% of loans have re-defaulted within 8 months after having been modified, and that was before unemployment hit critical mass.  Why would this plan be any more successful?
What we are going to see is that … (45 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage purchase applications take a dive despite the $8,000 home buyer credit - 03/03/09 10:55 PM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the weekly mortgage purchase application index declined -5.6% from last week to 236.4.
Outside of the week of February 11th of 2009 when the mortgage purchase application hit 235.9, this is the lowest reading since 2000. 
Two reasons why this number should raise some concern.  First, according to the NAR, housing affordability is the highest on record going back to 1973.  And second, and even more importantly in my opinion, is that the new $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit has had virtually no impact on stimulating new mortgage purchase applications.  Interestingly, the index has … (5 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage purchase applications not responding to $8000 home buyer tax credit - 02/25/09 01:44 AM
Last week I wrote a post about how mortgage purchase applications remained alarmingly low despite Congress passing the recent $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit.
The goal of the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit was to get people off the fence and to stimulate demand for real estate.  And in order for first time home buyers to buy a home, they need to apply for a mortgage, and this means a mortgage purchase application.
So, after last weeks dismal mortgage purchase application index I thought to myself, let's give it another week or two and continue to watch the index before we rush to … (3 comments)

mortgage bankers association: The latest sign that lower mortgage rates aren't a solution - 02/11/09 03:44 AM
The mortgage bankers association announced today that the seasonally adjusted purchase index decreased -9.8% to 235.9, the lowest level since 2000.  This despite the fact that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate actually dipped from 5.28% last week to 5.19%.
The reason this is alarming is that the pace of home sales over the past two months is actually lower than it was when mortgage rates were nearly a full point higher.  In other words, lower mortgage rates simply have not had a stimulative impact on demand for real estate.  And now, with mortgage purchase applications plunging even further this past week, despite … (4 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage purchase applications sink again - 02/04/09 03:53 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced today that the seasonally adjusted purchase index decreased -11.2% to 261.4, its lowest index since November 26th of 2008 when it was at 261.6.  The 30-year fixed rate mortgage at that time was 5.99%, currently it stands at 5.28%.  In other words, despite rates being nearly 75 basis points lower today than during the week of November 26th, and despite the fact that we are past the holiday season and well into the new year, the demand for mortgage purchase applications is nearly unchanged, this is a problem.
The problem with this is that in order … (0 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage applications continue to lose steam - 01/28/09 04:17 PM
The reality that a lot of people within the Federal Reserve were hoping to avoid is that their efforts to jump start the housing market by plunging mortgage rates seems to have lost steam over the past couple of weeks as rates have risen and economic conditions have deteriorated.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, as a result of mortgage rates rising to 5.22% from their recent low when they fell to 4.89%, the indicator that matters, the seasonally adjusted purchase index, has fallen nearly 15% from three weeks ago to 294.3.  What this means is that despite historically low mortgage … (5 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage purchase applications fizzle out - 01/22/09 04:22 AM
According to the mortgage bankers association weekly application survey for January 22nd, the seasonally adjusted purchase index increased just 2.5% from last week and despite historically low mortgage rates, the four week moving average is actually down -1%.  
The seasonally adjusted purchase index which currently stands at 303.1 is down -16.5% from a recent peak of 361.1 that we saw during the week ending on December 3rd of 2008 when rates plunged from 5.99% to 5.47%.
The reason I emphasize the purchase index is because in order to stabilize the real estate market there needs to be increased and sustained … (5 comments)

mortgage bankers association: Mortgage Purchase Applications: Anecdotal Stories v. The Data - 01/13/09 11:34 PM
I continue to read blogs by mortgage brokers that tell me that the lower mortgage rates are having a significant impact on purchase applications, really?
As I have blogged about before when mortgage rates were hovering near six percent, I didn't think that lower mortgage rates would have a significant and stimulative effect on real estate demand, which is something that is desperately needed in order to bring the market out of a free fall.
And low and behold, lower mortgage rates are not stimulating demand, regardless of the anecdotal stories that I continue to read about.
According to the Mortgage … (4 comments)

 
Mark MacKenzie

Mark MacKenzie

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