mortgage purcahse applications: Consumer Confidence Falls In August - 08/16/09 01:49 AM
According to the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, confidence fell in August to 63.2 from a July reading of 66.
Additionally, the measure of consumer expectations fell to 62.1, the lowest reading since March.
The reason these numbers are somewhat alarming is because not only has the pace of job losses slowed, but the stock market has rallied nearly 45% from March.  And yet the confidence and expectations of the consumer remain weak.
Remember, in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we saw 652,000 jobs lost.  As recently as July there were "only" 247,000.
It is possible that this … (4 comments)

mortgage purcahse applications: MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Fall Sharply As Rates Plunge - 07/15/09 03:50 PM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association and their weekly mortgage application survey, mortgage purchase applications fell 9.4% from the previous week to 258.8.  This is the lowest reading in 7 weeks when the survey fell to 256.6 during the week of May 22.
The reason the purchase application is relevant is because it is an indicator of future demand for real estate.  And the reason this anemic demand for real estate is significant is because there is another tsunami of foreclosures that will be making land-fall within the next 6-12 months.
Interestingly, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell from 5.34% last … (2 comments)

mortgage purcahse applications: MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Fall As Rates Ease - 07/01/09 01:52 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the weekly mortgage purchase application index fell -4.5% to 267.7 as mortgage rates eased from 5.44% to 5.34%.
The weekly purchase application had hit a 10-week high last week when it rose to 280.3.
And while the index did slip this past week, what we continue to see is that mortgage purchase applications, much like the actual demand for real estate, has been largely unaffected by sub 5% mortgage rates.
Here is a comparison between NAR's seasonally adjusted existing home sales and Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate mortgage survey over the past several months, this data reveals that record … (0 comments)

mortgage purcahse applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications Slip 3.5% For The Week - 06/18/09 04:13 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association and their weekly survey of mortgage applications, the mortgage purchase application index slipped 3.5% to 261.2 as rates moderated from 5.57% to 5.5% for the week.
The four-week moving average for the purchase index is up 0.7% since rates have surged nearly a full percentage point.
This data gives further support to my argument that mortgages rates below 5% have had or will have little if any impact on stimulating new demand for real estate.  In fact, to take it one step further, rates below 6% have had virtually no impact on demand.  Unfortunately, it cost the Fed … (3 comments)

mortgage purcahse applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications Decline Again - 04/22/09 03:29 PM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the mortgage purchase application index fell to its lowest level in nearly six weeks to 253, a decline of 4.2% from the week before.  This was despite the fact that the average 30-year fixed rate mortgatge continues to hover at 4.73%.
If you are wondering what home sales are going to look like in May and June, based on the past couple of weeks of this data, there is a pretty good chance home sales are going to be flat, and that is a problem considering that the number of foreclosures are surging based on the expiration of … (0 comments)

mortgage purcahse applications: The latest sign that lower mortgage rates aren't a solution - 02/11/09 03:44 AM
The mortgage bankers association announced today that the seasonally adjusted purchase index decreased -9.8% to 235.9, the lowest level since 2000.  This despite the fact that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate actually dipped from 5.28% last week to 5.19%.
The reason this is alarming is that the pace of home sales over the past two months is actually lower than it was when mortgage rates were nearly a full point higher.  In other words, lower mortgage rates simply have not had a stimulative impact on demand for real estate.  And now, with mortgage purchase applications plunging even further this past week, despite … (4 comments)

 
Mark MacKenzie

Mark MacKenzie

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