realtytrac: Home Value Declines Continue to Drive Sales
- 08/16/09 10:06 AM
The NAR published their quarterly home sales report this past week which shows the rate of home sales for all 50 states as well as the District of Columbia. Of the 51 total markets, 41 of them showed year over year home sales declines from the 2Q of 2008 to the 2Q of 2009. The year over year data, the weather man's guide, is a better indicator than month over month data as it accounts for seasonal variances as well as providing a larger scope to interpret the information, in other words, a frame of reference. It is this year over year perspective … (6 comments)
realtytrac: Bank Failures Surge to 77
- 08/16/09 01:28 AM
Colonial Bank became the biggest bank failure this year, the 6th biggest of all time, and the largest since Washington Mutual, as the FDIC took over the company on Friday, according to an article written by Alison Vekshin, David Mildenberg and Dakin Campbell in Bloomberg.com Additionally, four more banks were taken over this weekend, bringing the total this year to 77. This is more than triple the number of bank failures that we saw in 2008 when there were only 25, and we still have over four months left to the year. The reason why the number of bank failures are escalating is because of the number … (4 comments)
realtytrac: The Weather Man's Guide To Understanding Real Estate Data
- 08/15/09 01:10 AM
Due to some recent improvements in seasonal housing data and statistics, a lot of people (Jim Cramer) and media outlets (AP) are beginning to sound the drum for a housing bottom. I thought it would be worth pointing out that much like the weather, the majority of real estate data is best interpreted in a year over year comparison versus month over month. The reason for this is because real estate is a seasonal industry, much like the weather is. Home values, the number of listings, and the number of sales, are driven by the time of the year. You don't see weather men or women comparing … (4 comments)
realtytrac: RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Filings Set New Record In July
- 08/13/09 12:30 AM
According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings set a new record in July as they rose 7% from June and are up 32% year over year. According to James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac's chief executive, "July marks the third time in the last five months where we've seen a new record set for foreclosure activity". In other words, despite calls of a housing bottom by CNBC's Jim Cramer and even the AP, the housing market is still deteriorating and home values are still eroding. This escalation of foreclosure activity also brings into question the effectiveness and long-term sustainability of the Obama Administration's $75 billion loan modification … (4 comments)
realtytrac: AP: "Welcome to the bottom: Housing begins slow rebound"
- 08/08/09 10:16 AM
For those of you who read my last post and disagreed with Deutsche Bank's report that nearly 50% of all mortgages will be underwater by 2011, a recent AP report may be more up your alley, so long as you don't think a rising tide of foreclosures will negatively impact property values. The AP writes, "It was - note the past tense - the worst housing recession anyone but survivors of the Great Depression can remember." The recent AP article goes on to say, "By every measure, except foreclosures, the housing market has stabilized and many areas are recovering, according to a spate of data … (9 comments)
realtytrac: Existing Home Sales Up 3.6% in June, Why That Is Not Enough
- 07/26/09 03:10 AM
The NAR announced this week that existing home sales rose 3.6% to a 4.89 million seasonally adjusted rate, the strongest pace since October of 2008. The rate of sales while encouraging, is still off -0.2% from last year despite an $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit and record housing affordability. Inventory of existing homes for sale fell -0.7% from last month to 3.823 million and is down -14.9% from the same time last year. The result is that the month's supply of housing is down -4.1% from last month to a 9.4 month supply and is down -14.5% from June of last year. Without … (31 comments)
realtytrac: RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Filings Surge 33% From Last Year
- 07/16/09 04:05 PM
According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings surged by 33% from June of 2008 to June of 2009. Additionally, filings are up 5% month over month from May to June. In other words, despite Obama's housing plan, the pace of foreclosures is accelerating. According to the AP, "It was the fourth-straight month in which more than 300,000 households received a foreclosure filing". Not that anybody should be surprised, Bush's loan modification plan didn't work either, why would this one? The problem of course is not just housing affordability, but home values. As long as home values continue to deteriorate, loan modifications will only … (4 comments)
realtytrac: RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Activity "Unprecedented"
- 06/11/09 02:47 AM
According to RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga, recent foreclosure activity over the past three months has been "unprecedented". As a result of broad-based forecloure moratoriums that expired in March, there have been approximately one million foreclosure filings over the past three months. To give this number some context, according to Sharga, in a typical year there would be approximately 550,000-800,000 filings. Last year there were a total of 3.1 million filings on 2.4 million households and this year there is a projected 4 million filings on 3.1 million households. Foreclosure filings dipped 6% in May from April, when there were a record number, but are still up 18% from … (1 comments)
realtytrac: April Foreclosure Filings Up 32% From Last Year
- 05/13/09 02:02 AM
According to a CNNMoney.com article written by Les Christie, RealtyTrac is reporting that 342,000 homes received a notice of default or auction notice in April, this is the highest number on record in the four plus years that they have been tracking the data. Additionally, Rick Sharga, a spokesperson for RealtyTrac, said that their original projection of 3.4 million filings for the year will need to be re-evualted, "we'll blow those numbers out of the water." Maybe I am missing something, but how can the housing market be at or near a bottom as many on Wall St. and the media, yes, you Jim Cramer, have been … (1 comments)
realtytrac: CNN's Les Christie confirms "ghost inventory"
- 01/24/09 06:24 AM
Last week I wrote a post about the three reasons why the real estate market is worse than the NAR numbers reveal. The reason that the post was relevant was because currently there is already an 11.2 month supply of housing as of the November 2008 data that the NAR published, this matches the all time high set in April of 2008. And the reason that the November 2008 number is relevant is because it shows that despite one the steepest price declines on record this past year for home values, there is no sign that the market has improved. In … (5 comments)
realtytrac: Three reasons why the real estate market is worse than the NAR numbers reveal
- 01/15/09 02:42 AM
Nothing gives you a better sense of the health of the real estate market than the relationship between the supply and demand for real estate, in other words the number of properties for sale (supply) relative to the number of properties sold (demand). This relationship is referred to as the month's supply of housing. Currently, as of November, according to the NAR, the month's supply of housing is at an all time high at 11.2, matching April of 2008. The month's supply of housing is like golf, the lower the number the better. As recently as 2005 there was a … (5 comments)
The NAR published their quarterly home sales report this past week which shows the rate of home sales for all 50 states as well as the District of Columbia.
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