home buying: Daily Market Report 7/19/21
- 07/19/21 10:54 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NAHB Home Builder Sentiment dropped one point to 80 for June. This index gauges the confidence with Home Builders. This week will mostly be about housing data. Stocks are WAY Down today (comparable to last October). Investors are concerned that the Markets may have Peaked and the rising Delta variant cases globally. Along with that, Investors are watching tensions rise between the US and China. MBS Is Up 31bps, as Mortgage Rates improve from Friday's close. Yields plunged all the way down to just under 1.19%.
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home buying: Daily Market Report 7/15/21
- 07/15/21 09:57 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Philly Fed dropped from 30.7 in June to 21.9 in July. This is still a great number; however, the size of the drop is a bit alarming. Jobless Claims continue to improve, as 360k applied for first time benefits last week. This is a new low, not seen since last March. Also, we're seeing improvement with Continued Claims, as more people are going back to work. The Empire State Index rose to an all time high in July, as it jumped from 17.4 in June to 43.0 in July. Lastly, Industrial Productions came in below estimates (0.6%) in June … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 7/14/21
- 07/14/21 10:07 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Both the Producer Price Index headline number (PPI) and it's Core PPI (excludes food and energy) rose 1.0% MoM in June. The Core PPI is now up to 5.6% YoY, which brings us to inflationary levels last seen in 2008 when price of a barrel of oil reached all time highs of $150/barrel. Stocks are back in Positive Territory after yesterday's losses. We will receive more Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports today; and Fed Chair Powell has testified before the House Finance Committee today. Nothing has changed, but the Investors like hearing the message repeated. MBS is regaining it's losses yesterday; … (1 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 7/13/21
- 07/13/21 09:43 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core CPI (excludes food & energy) rose 0.9% in June. The CPI rose from 5.0% in May to 5.4% in June; while, the Core CPI rose from 3.8% in May to 4.5% in June. This is the highest spike we've seen in 30 years (Sept, 1991). Markets initially reacted negatively, but has since subsided. Currently, only the DOW is in Negative Territory. Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports are beginning to be released, as several of the Major financial institutions (like Chase and Goldman Sachs) released their reports today. Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 7/12/21
- 07/12/21 11:05 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing really on the Economic Calendar; however, there are some Treasury Auctions this morning (3yr and 10yr). The 3yr didn't go as well as hoped and did negatively affect the Markets (usually it doesn't impact); and the 10yr came in rather decent, which wiped out the negative movement caused by the 3yr. Stocks are Mixed today, as NASDAQ is the lone index in the Red. Investors are primarily looking ahead for this week's data. This week, we have the beginning of Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports, Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Testimony and a new look at Inflation data (CPI and PPI). … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 7/9/21
- 07/09/21 11:38 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Wholesale Inventories rose 1.3% in May. Meanwhile, Stocks are rebounding today, after a bit of a pullback the last few days. They're expected to end the week on a high note. Investors are torn between "good news and Fed tapering sooner" and "bad news and keeping the easy money flowing". Next week, they'll have a bit more of a distraction, as Corporations release their Q2 Earnings Reports. Currently MBS is Down 22bps, so Mortgage Rates are off by about an .125% to it's rate. They and Yields are currently looking for it's next range, so we'll experiences some of these … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 7/8/21
- 07/08/21 11:18 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims revised last week's report from 364k to 371k; and reported this week at 373k. However, we are still seeing a dropoff in the Continued Claims (by nearly 150k) from last week. Stocks are Down on the trend of Yields dropping today. Investors are changing their worries of surging inflation to is this all the growth we'll see (?) attitude. Yields seem to be falling more on a Technical level, which has many Investors confused. It touched near a new Technical level (1.25%) and is currently sitting at 1.29%. Investors are also keeping an eye on the … (1 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 7/7/21
- 07/07/21 09:09 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Later today, the FOMC Minutes will be released, which will be our most impactful economic data for this week (as it will be a rather light week). However, the BLS released a report showing that there were 9.2 million Job Openings for the month of May. The Markets are holding back today, as NASDAQ goes into the Red. MBS are currently Up 6bps, but it's still within our range yesterday, after it pulled back some to close +22bps. This basically means that Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing. Yields continue their decent, as it hit 1.31%, and it currently … (1 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 7/6/21
- 07/06/21 09:33 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The drop in the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, from 64.0 in May to 60.1 in June, added fuel to the fire today, as trading was very light until the report was released. Stocks are all in Negative Territory this morning. This piece of data is really the only thing being reported today, which is having the most impact with the Markets. However, MBS is Up 27bps, so Mortgage Rates have seen an improvement with their pricing today. Yields have fallen below another Technical level to just under 1.37%. These levels haven't been seen since end of February/early March.
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home buying: Daily Market Report 7/2/21
- 07/02/21 12:07 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We receive Job data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today, for which is the catalyst we've been waiting all week. The Average Earnings rose only 0.3% in June, while the Average Work Week (in hours) dropped to 34.7 hrs. The Non-Farm Payrolls came in above estimates, at 850k for June; however, it's Unemployment Rate rose to 5.9%. The Unemployment Rate rose because more people entered the workforce. Investors are liking the Jobs data enough to feel it's "not too hot, nor not too cold", whereas the Fed would pull it's tapering too soon. As a result, Stocks are … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 7/1/21
- 07/01/21 11:45 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 364k last week, which is a new low since the Pandemic hit; so, solid numbers! The ISM Manufacturing dropped from 61.2 in May to 60.6 in June. The data disappointed, but is still solid, as anything over 50 is in expansion territory. Manufacturing is dealing with large backlogs of new orders while dealing with supply and labor shortage issues. Lastly, Construction Spending dropped 0.3% in May. Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as NASDAQ is being weighed down by higher Yields (up to 1.48% currently). There are a few Fed Speakers, so Investors will keep … (1 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 6/30/21
- 06/30/21 11:22 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP revised it's May report from 978k private payroll jobs to 886k. However, June's data exceeded it forecasts of 600k by reporting 692k jobs. The revision in May's data made this more or less a wash. Business activity in the Chicago region dropped in June, after hitting it's highest number in May since 1983. The Chicago PMI reported 66.1 for June. Anything above 50 is considered expansion, so it's still doing well. Lastly, NAR reported that Pending Home Sales rose 8.0% in May after forecasts called for nearly a 1% drop. Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory. We enter … (1 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 6/29/21
- 06/29/21 10:10 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are 2 Home Price Indices (HPI) being reported today. The Case Shiller HPI, which measures the 20 largest Markets went up 1.6% in April and up 14.9% YoY. Meanwhile, the FHFA HPI, which measures homes with conventional loan programrs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), rose 1.8% in April and up 15.7% YoY. Lastly, Consumer Confidence spiked to 127.3 in June. Stocks are Up today! Banks passed their Stress Tests yesterday and 5 of the 6 largest banks announced an increase in their Dividends. This boosted their stocks; as it also boosted it's sector. Fed Member Barkin spoke today, which … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 6/28/21
- 06/28/21 11:12 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic data to report today; however, this week is Jobs report week. The ADP will deliver their Private Payrolls on Wednesday; Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will provide their Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate on Friday. Stocks are Mixed today, NASDAQ rebounds on improvement with Yields, as they drop back down to 1.47% range. Another reason why this week can be a bit choppy in Stocks is it's Quarter end. Portfolio Managers tend to rebalance their portfolios during this time. MBS is Up 22bps, so we're seeing improvement … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 6/25/21
- 06/25/21 11:15 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Big data day today, as we receive the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE). The Headline PCE rose 0.4% in May, while it's YoY rose from 3.6% in April to 3.9% in May. The real Inflation, or Core PCE, is derived when you exclude food and energy, which rose 0.5% in May; and it's YoY rose from 3.1% in April to 3.4% in May. So, the 3.4% is the number that the Fed determines as our inflation on a year-over-year basis. Typically, they want it at 2.0%; however, they've been stating the bottle neck with the … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 6/24/21
- 06/24/21 11:48 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Last week's Initial Jobless Claims were revised higher, from 412k to 418k; and this week's report came in at 411k. This missed the forecasts of 380k, which economists were projecting. Durable Goods revised their April data to slightly better, from -1.3% to -0.8%; and improved to 2.3%. Some were disappointed with this number, as it missed it's forecasts by 0.5%, but when you see that it's revision was improved by 0.5%, then it's almost a wash. Q1 GDP released it's final revision, which remained unchanged at 6.4%. Next month, then we'll get an initial view of Q2 GDP. Stocks are … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 6/23/21
- 06/23/21 10:31 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The IHS Markit PMI released it's 2 reports: Manufacturing and Services. The Services dropped from 70.4 in May to 64.8 in June; however, it's Manufacturing rose from 62.1 in May to 62.6 in June. New Home Sales dropped 5.9% in May, as it's April numbers were revised lower (from 863k seasonally adjusted annualized units to 817k). In May, it was reported down to 769k. All of these reports today indicate an ongoing issue with labor shortages. Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is barely in the Red. The Market didn't have much impact from Fed Chair Powell's Testimony … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 6/22/21
- 06/22/21 10:57 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Existing Home Sales dropped in May from 5.85 million annualized units in April to 5.80 million. However, this is better than the 5.72 million forecast. Stocks are Up again today before Fed Chair Powell testifies before the House Sub-Committee this afternoon. He did release an early statement that was similar to Fed Williams' comments yesterday on the timeline of a ratehike. It was stressed that the Fed feels that inflation is transitory and they will take the time to make sure Jobs are in stable ground before raising rates, which will take time (in other words, it won't come … (2 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 6/21/21
- 06/21/21 11:16 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no Economic data on the calendar to report today; however, there are a number of other data throughout the week that may make some impact (including PCE, GDP, Housing data, etc...). The Markets are following last week's hawkish tone set by the Fed and it's members. Stocks are in Positive Territory today after a lot of selling last week. Portfolio Managers are repositioning their assets as they head into a new Quarter. We have a few Fed Members speaking today, including Bullard whose comments disrupted the Markets on Friday. Investors may be interested in Fed Williams' thoughts, whom … (0 comments)
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home buying: Daily Market Report 6/18/21
- 06/18/21 09:49 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today is a new Federal Holiday, Juneteenth, so there are no economic data to report; however, the Markets are still open. Stocks are Down this morning, based on 2 events. The first event is the Quadruple Witching, which Portfolio Managers reposition their portfolios, as we approach another quarter. Also, there were some hawkish comments by St Louis Fed Bullard, which he stated that the Fed may raise rates as soon as next year (much earlier than expected). We had some really big swings in both the MBS and 10 year Treasuries this morning, which last all but 10 minutes. MBS … (0 comments)
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http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NAHB Home Builder Sentiment dropped one point to 80 for June. This index gauges the confidence with Home Builders. This week will mostly be about housing data. Stocks are WAY Down today (comparable to last October). Investors are concerned that the Markets may have Peaked and the rising Delta variant cases globally. Along with that, Investors are watching tensions rise between the US and China. MBS Is Up 31bps, as Mortgage Rates improve from Friday's close. Yields plunged all the way down to just under 1.19%.
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