home loans: Daily Market Report 5/19/22
- 05/19/22 09:46 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Philly Fed Index dropped from 17.6 in April to 2.6 in May. This index measures the manufacturing around the Philadelphia area. This has been see quite a bit this month, so we'll monitor to verify if this is becoming a trend or not. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 218k. Housing data continues to disappoint this week, as the Existing Home Sales dropped by 2.4% to 5.61 million annualized units in April. Lastly, the Leading Indicator dropped 0.3% in April. Stocks are Mixed today, as Investors continue to worry about shrinking profit margins and investment dollars are flowing over into … (0 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/18/22
- 05/18/22 11:52 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts dropped by 0.2% in April, as March data was revised lower (from 1.793 million seasonally adjusted units to 1.728 million). April's data reported at 1.724 million. Likewise, Building Permits dropped 3.2% in April. However, it's March data was revised higher (from 1.870 million to 1.879 million). April's data came in at 1.819 million. We'll continue to monitor this data, as we saw yesterday that confidence with Home Builders dipped in May. This trend could continue. Meanwhile, there's a massive selloff with Stocks today, as Investors continue to review Corporate Earnings Reports, which many large Retailers are releasing their … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/17/22
- 05/17/22 11:08 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales rose 0.9% in April, after a sharp higher revision to March (from 0.5% to 1.4%). This, on the surface looks very good, but Rick Santelli made a great point about this data. The point is related to the data not being adjusted for inflation. The reported data may be over-inflated due to the spike in inflation. Even Walmart disappointed with their Earnings Reports that was just released yesterday. More retailers will be releasing their data this week. In other Economic data, Industrial Production rose 1.1% in April. The NAHB Home Builders Index, which measures confidence with Home Builders, … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/16/22
- 05/16/22 11:27 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing in the NY region contracted in April, as the Empire State Index reported that it declined 11.6 on it's index on forecasts of +17.00. The week ahead has Retail Sales (which may coincide with many Corporate Earnings releases for some of the largest Retailers), Housing data and Manufacturing. Today, Stocks are down again on pessimism by Investors on the possibility of a smooth landing with the path of the Fed policy, as many economists revise global economic growth lower. Part of the issue lies with China's current COVID lockdowns, which is having a major constraint with the supply chain. … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/13/22
- 05/13/22 09:28 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Sentiment dropped fairly significantly in May, as it went from 65.2 in April to 59.1 in May. This is an important index to gauge, as Consumer behavior affects whether the economy will weaken or strengthen; and if they're not feeling it, then it could eventually lead to a recession (and possibly, "Stagflation"). It's impact with the Markets today was only brief. Stocks are rebounding today after a week of beatdowns. As a result, MBS is currently Down 16bps. This is simply a movement of investment dollars flowing from MBS to equities, as Investors are buying low. But this … (0 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/12/22
- 05/12/22 11:57 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly from last week to 203k. This is people applying for first time benefits. The good news is that Continuing Claims has continued to decline. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures Wholesale Inflation, rose only 0.5% in April. This is after a big spike in March, which it rose 1.6%. The Core PPI, which excludes food & energy, rose only 0.4% (beating out estimates of 0.6%), while it's YoY dropped from 9.6% in March to 8.8%. Normally, this data doesn't get much respect, but due to inflation being the hot topic, the it's value … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/11/22
- 05/11/22 12:02 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Priced Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in April while it's YoY dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, missing expectations of 8.1%. The Core CPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.6% while it's YoY dropped from 6.5% to 6.2%, also missing it's forecasts of 6.0%. One of the real reasons behind this drop was due to a big spike in March 2021, which fell off the YoY average. This is still concerning, especially when you look at the MoM data. Some Economists are now calling on the Fed to hike rates at 0.75%, which they announced last week was off the … (2 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/10/22
- 05/10/22 09:48 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today. The Markets are preparing themselves for tomorrow when the CPI is released. This will have the biggest impact this week, as Investors are looking for confirmation that inflation has peaked. Stocks have been selling off over the past few days in preparation, as Investors are concerned over the Fed's tightening policy and they haven't seen signs of inflation cooling down quite yet. This has helped MBS to some degree, as it's up again today (+48bps). Mortgage Rates improve again today. Yields have also fallen down to 2.95% (after it was as high … (0 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/9/22
- 05/09/22 10:58 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Wholesale Inventories maintained their pace with 2.3% increase for March. There's not a lot of Economic Data to be released this week, so most focus will be on the upcoming inflation data by CPI and PPI. Investors will be looking for possible acknowledgement that Inflation has peaked. There's still real concern over inflation, which is what's dictating the Markets. Investors are concerned that the Fed may not be doing enough (especially when they announced the 75 bps hike is off the table) and the probability of an economic slowdown (while inflation is still high), which will lead to the worse … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/6/22
- 05/06/22 12:39 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Average Earnings rose only 0.3%, coming in under forecasts. Hopefully, this is an indicator that wage inflation is stabilizing. Non-Farm Payrolls reported 428k new jobs for April, beating expectations! However, the Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%; likewise, the Average Work Week (hrs.) remained unchanged at 34.6 hours per week. One piece of data that didn't make it onto the graph, was the Labor Participation, which dropped 0.2% to 62.2%. This is something to monitor, as there may be some concerns of another Great Resignation. Both Markets (Stocks and MBS) are reacting similarly. Yesterday, Investors were very concerned over the Labor … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/5/22
- 05/05/22 11:08 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Bank of England's announcement started off our calendar today, as they hiked their rates up by 0.25%. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims rose back up to 200k. Challenger Layoffs announced an additional 3 million job layoffs to come. However, the Continuing Claims dropped about 20k from last week. Labor Costs rose 11.6% in it's initial report for Q1, while Productivity dropped by 7.5%. This latter portion is concerning; especially the Labor Costs, as this is inflationary data. After the Fed provided their announcement yesterday, both Markets rallied quite well (DOW was up over 900 points and MBS closed Up over … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/4/22
- 05/04/22 10:59 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ADP reported 247k new jobs for Private Payroll in April, which came in much lower than forecast. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped from 58.3 in March to 57.1 in April, which it slowed with the Services sector, like it's counterpart in Manufacturing in yesterday's report. Later today, the Fed will provide their announcement after it's completion of the 2 day FOMC. It's widely expected for them hike rates by 50bps and begin the Balance Sheet reduction. Investors will listen to how aggressive of approach the Fed will take going forward. Both Stocks and Bonds opened lower for the day. MBS are … (2 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/3/22
- 05/03/22 10:42 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Factory Orders exceeded expectations for March and rose by 2.2% on forecasts of 1.1%. Also, February's data was revised from -0.5% to +0.1%. The Fed begins their 2 day meeting (FOMC), which they'll be providing their announcement tomorrow. It is widely expected they'll hike rates by 0.5% tomorrow, along with plans to implement the Balance Sheet reduction. Investors will watch for clues as to how they plan to proceed: like how aggressive will they be to reduce the Balance Sheet; and will they hike rates by 0.75% for their June & July meetings or do 4 consecutive 0.5% hikes? These … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 5/2/22
- 05/02/22 11:06 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing appears to be weakening, as inflation and supply chain issues mount, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 57.1 in March to 55.4 in April. Anything above 50 is still considered expansion with this index. A side note, Construction Spending came in underwhelmingly at 0.1% increase for March. Investors are positioning themselves ahead of the 2 day FOMC, which begins tomorrow and their announcement on Wednesday. It is expected they'll raise the rates by 0.5% and begin with the Balance Sheet reduction. There's some recent debate on the pace of the ratehikes, as some are projecting a 0.75% for … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 4/29/22
- 04/29/22 10:17 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's a lot of important Economic Data being released today, which I'll touch on some of it after I list the reported data. Employment Costs (initial) rose 1.4% for Q1. Personal Income rose 0.5% in March while Consumer Spending rose 1.1%. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose 0.9% in March, as it's YoY rose from 6.4% to 6.6%. However, it's Core PCE (excludes food and energy) rose 0.3% as it's YoY dropped from 5.4% to 5.2%. This is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation! The Chicago PMI, which measures the manufacturing activity in the Chicago area, dropped from 62.9 in … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 4/28/22
- 04/28/22 11:08 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims dropped again to 180k, as Continued Claims have shown signs of continuous declines. All good news, as people are going back to work! However, the initial reading for the Q1 GDP reported a drop of 1.4%, after posting an increase of 6.9% for Q4 2021. This surprised the Markets, as they were forecasting an approximately 1% increase. The GDP release dropped MBS to it's lowest levels of the day, which was down approximately 30bps; however, the Market has since subsided and is currently trading Down 13bps. Overall, pricing for Mortgage Rates are a little worse than … (0 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 4/27/22
- 04/27/22 10:42 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: According to the Economic Calendar, we have Pending Home Sales for the month of March, which it dropped 1.2% from February's numbers. It came in at 103.7k seasonally adjusted units. There was an Auction for both the 2 year and 5 year Treasuries, which didn't seem to have much of an impact with the Market today (as we've seen in the past recently). MBS has been shifting between -17bps and -20bps, as I was doing this video. It's enough for Lenders to worsen their pricing on Mortgage Rates (in comparison with yesterday's pricing). Like I've been cautioning for a bit … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 4/26/22
- 04/26/22 10:14 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods improved by 0.8% in March. We have 2 Home Price Indexes (HPI) for February being released today. The first is Case Shiller HPI, which measures the 20 largest Metros in the US, rose to 20.2% YoY; and the FHFA HPI, which measures homes with Conforming limits, rose to 19.4% YoY. Consumer Confidence was revised from 107.2 to 107.6 in March, so it went down to 107.3 in April based on the revision. Similarly, New Homes Sales revised their data from February from 772k seasonally adjusted units to 835k, which it dropped down to 763k in March (again, based … (0 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 4/25/22
- 04/25/22 09:07 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today; however, this week will be packed with important data being released. Friday will be the BIG day this week, as the PCE will be released. Investors are hoping that inflation data has peaked, so we can hopefully see it to trickle downwards. Meanwhile, Investors are on the fence about the Lockdowns in China, as more cities are being locked down. This has helped to reduce the price of oil to under $100/barrel and reduce consumer consumption in China, which will reduce short-term inflation; however, it will also bottle neck the supply chain … (1 comments)
|
home loans: Daily Market Report 4/22/22
- 04/22/22 10:27 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Markit PMI released their data for 2 sectors, Manufacturing and Services for the month of April. The Manufacturing rose to 59.7 in April; while Services dropped to 54.7. Anything above 50 is considered expansion. Investors continue to review the Q1 Corporate Earnings releases; but they're currently in more in tuned with the recent Fed speak, including Fed Chair Powell's comments yesterday. The hawkish tone has both Stocks and MBS down today. They're expecting a 0.5% rate hike for May FOMC and begin the reduction of their Balance Sheet; but now they're starting to project a .75% hike for June's … (1 comments)
|
|
|
|
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Philly Fed Index dropped from 17.6 in April to 2.6 in May. This index measures the manufacturing around the Philadelphia area. This has been see quite a bit this month, so we'll monitor to verify if this is becoming a trend or not. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 218k. Housing data continues to disappoint this week, as the Existing Home Sales dropped by 2.4% to 5.61 million annualized units in April. Lastly, the Leading Indicator dropped 0.3% in April. Stocks are Mixed today, as Investors continue to worry about shrinking profit margins and investment dollars are flowing over into … (0 comments)
;)
;)
;)
