interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/18/22 - 07/18/22 11:30 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  NAHB Housing Market Index dramatically dropped from 67 in June to 55 in July.  This index gauges the confidence level for Home Builders, which is extremely low in July, as this will most likely lead to a dramatic drop in Permits and New Home Sales, as Home Builders lose confidence.  However, Investors are happy with the Q2 Corporate Earnings, so Stocks are Up again today.  This week will mostly show Housing data and the most impactful will the ECB meeting on Thursday when they're expected to hike rates for the first time in 11 years.  MBS started the morning way … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/15/22 - 07/15/22 12:10 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales grew by 1.0% in June.  A report that we don't normally pay much attention is the Import Prices, which showed an increase of 0.2%.  I'm looking at it now because the Fed will be convening for their 2 day event in about 1.5 weeks and could show inflation data.  This was very tame, so it's good news.  To move on, we got more good news with manufacturing in the NY region, as the Empire State Index rose to 11.1 in July (after a few months contracting).  But Industrial Production (of course, this is for June; as the previous … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/14/22 - 07/14/22 12:36 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims continue to increase each week, as this week's report has 244k new filings for benefits.  However, the Continuing Claims did shrink from last week.  The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation on the Wholesale side, reported a 1.1% increase in June.  However, the Core PPI (excludes food & energy) rose only 0.4% and it's YoY dropped from 8.5% in May to 8.2% in June.  Both Markets are down today!  The concern that the Fed may increase it's rate hike from 75 bps to 100 bps increased to 75% chance and is having a negative reaction with … (1 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/13/22 - 07/13/22 11:29 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The CPI report came out a bit hotter for June than expected.  The CPI (headline number) went up 1.3% (higher than the 1.1% forecasts); and it's YoY jumped from 8.6% in May to 9.1% in June.  However, the Core CPI (excluding food & energy) rose 0.7%; but it's YoY dropped from 6.0% in May to 5.9% in June.  This was considered the BIG impactful report for this week, as it sent both Markets last month into a tailspin.  Stocks are still in Negative Territory; however, MBS and Treasuries have rebounded from it's initial reaction.  MBS was below it's 25 DMA … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/12/22 - 07/12/22 11:17 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The NFIB Small Business Index continued it descent to 89.5 for June.  This is lowest since the height of the Pandemic; and prior it was just after the Great Recession in 2013.  Inflation is the biggest concern for Small Businesses.  This index is important because Small Businesses make up the bulk of employment in the US; and if they don't have confidence, then there will be less jobs available.  The 10 year Treasury Auction was much weaker than expected, so the Bond Market quickly changed it's direction.  MBS was up around 20bps early on, but is now down to about … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/11/22 - 07/11/22 11:08 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report for today, but the most impactful data to be reported this week will be the CPI report on Wednesday.  The last report didn't bode well for the Markets; but the PCE came in a bit tamer (and is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation) the other week, so it will be interesting to see if the CPI report will come in a bit tamer too.  Renewed concerns over global supply issues and inflation arose today, as China announces more lockdowns for areas with a pickup in COVID cases, as they aim for 0 … (1 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/8/22 - 07/08/22 11:43 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The waiting is over for this week's big report, Non-Farm Payrolls (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or also referred as BLS).  The Non-Farm Payrolls came in much hotter than expected to 372k in June, as forecasts were calling for 268k.  Unemployment Rate remained Unchanged at 3.6%.  Average Earnings rose 0.3% while Average Workweek Hours remained Unchanged at 34.5 hours.  Lastly, the Wholesale Inventories rose 1.8% in May.  Both Stocks and Bonds are reacting negatively to the released data today.  Stocks are down because it means the Fed will most likely continue down the path aggressively to fight inflation, which … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/7/22 - 07/07/22 01:20 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims rose by 4k from last week's number to 235k.  Also, the Continued Claims picked up a bit; and the Challenger Layoff (announced upcoming layoffs) spiked by almost 12k from last report.  Tomorrow will be the Jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will carry a bit of weight this week.  Investors will be watching fairly closely tomorrow, as there is a lot of concern of a possible recession.  Today, they're feeling a bit more optimistic, as investment dollars move over to equities.  As a result, MBS is currently Down 11bps, but was down by … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/6/22 - 07/06/22 12:26 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 55.3, which was better than the forecast of 54.3.  Anything above 50 with this index indicates expansion.  The FOMC Minutes from it's June meeting were released today.  It basically reiterated what the Fed has been saying all along.  The 50 or 75 bps rate hike is on the table for it's July meeting.  Also, if inflation persists, then they may take more restrictive measures.  Both Stocks and Bonds were in negative territory prior to the release of the Minutes, but Stocks started to improve after the release, while Bonds sank further.  This was mostly … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/5/22 - 07/05/22 01:04 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Factory Orders rose 1.6% in May; and it's April number was revised higher, from 0.3% to 0.7%.  This will be interesting to follow, as much of the manufacturing data have been contracting.  This week will feature Jobs data; however, one Jobs report will be placed on hold for a bit, as they retool it.  That will be the ADP Private Payrolls, which is typically the first of the Jobs data and released on Wednesday.  MBS is benefitting from a shift in investment dollars from the Equities Market, as Investors are concerned over recession fears.  The price of oil dropped below … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 7/1/22 - 07/01/22 12:18 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Construction Spending dropped 0.1% in May; however, it's April data was revised higher, from 0.2% to 0.8%.  The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 56.1 in May to 53.0 in June; coming in under forecasts of 54.9.  Anything above 50 with this index indicates expansion.  So, many PMIs were released globally (Asia and Europe) today, which seems to be a global trend that these are slowing down (some even contracted).  This has Investors worried, as the Fed is on trajectory with a very hawkish policy path, which they feel will lead us into a recession (if we're not already in one, … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 6/30/22 - 06/30/22 12:49 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) released it's inflation data today.  This index is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, so it holds a lot of weight (in terms of impact with Markets).  The PCE rose 0.6% in May, while it's YoY remained Unchanged at 6.3%.  The Core PCE (excluding food and energy; and the data that the Fed uses) rose 0.3% while it's YoY dropped 0.2% to 4.7% in May.  Personal Income rose 0.5% in May; and Consumer Spending rose only 0.2%.  Jobless Claims rose 2k last week to 231k while the Continued Claims rise, as well.  Lastly, the Chicago … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 6/29/22 - 06/29/22 11:22 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Q1 GDP released it's final revision, which dropped another .1% from the previous revision; and the final is a drop of 1.6% for Q1.  MBS is Up today, which it was around 17bps in the beginning of the video, then it jumped up to 25bps.  If this continues, then we could see more price improvements; but overall, Mortgage Rates improved from yesterday.  Speaking of yesterday, it rebounded late in the day to closing up 3bps, after being in negative territory all day.  Improved inflation data out of Germany started a little rally with Euro Bonds, which trickled over to … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 6/28/22 - 06/28/22 01:54 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Case Shiller Home Price Index (HPI), which measures home prices in the 20 largest metros in US, rose 1.8% in April while it's YoY rose to 21.2% (after March lower revision from 21.2% to 21.1%).  The FHFA HPI, which follows conforming loans, rose 1.6% in April while it's YoY dipped to 18.8% (from 19.1%).  Lastly, the Consumer Confidence continues to drop, as it dipped all the way to 98.7 in June.  This is important because if Consumers aren't feeling good about the economy, then they will stop buying, which in turn helps the economy to continue to move along; … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 6/27/22 - 06/27/22 12:04 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Durable Goods Orders rose 0.7% in May, exceeding expectations of 0.1%.  Pending Home Sales broke it streak of declines in May, as it rose by 0.7% to 99.9k annualized units.  There are a number of important data to watch this week, but none more important than Thursday's PCE release.  PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, which carries a bit more weight than the CPI, which the Markets reacted quite negatively a few weeks ago with it's release.  Both Markets are Down today, as MBS started the morning down around 30bps, then it subsided, but when the poor auction … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 6/24/22 - 06/24/22 10:10 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  New Homes Sales beat expectations for May, as it jumped up 10.7% to 696k seasonally adjusted units.  However, Consumer Sentiment dipped down to 50.0 in June.  A few bits that we don't normally look at, but Fed Chair Powell made a comment about it, which raised it's importance this week.  The comment was regarding the Consumer Sentiment toward inflation, or outlook of inflation over a 1 year and 5 year period.  Both were recently lower in June, compared to May's outlook.  The 1 year went from 5.4% to 5.3%; and the 5 year went from 3.3% to 3.1%.  This helped … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 06/23/22 - 06/23/22 09:51 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The weekly Initial Jobless Claims dipped to 229k last week, after last week's report was revised higher, from 229k to 231k.  Also, there was a slight increase to the Continuing Claims from last week.  The Markit PMI released their 2 reports (Manufacturing and Services) for the month of June, which anything above 50 is considered expansion.  The Markit Services PMI dropped from 53.4 in May to 51.6 in June; and the Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 57.0 in May to 52.4 in June.  Fed Chair Powell wraps up his 2 day testimony before the House Committee today.  Investors continue to … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 6/23/22 - 06/23/22 09:50 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The weekly Initial Jobless Claims dipped to 229k last week, after last week's report was revised higher, from 229k to 231k.  Also, there was a slight increase to the Continuing Claims from last week.  The Markit PMI released their 2 reports (Manufacturing and Services) for the month of June, which anything above 50 is considered expansion.  The Markit Services PMI dropped from 53.4 in May to 51.6 in June; and the Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 57.0 in May to 52.4 in June.  Fed Chair Powell wraps up his 2 day testimony before the House Committee today.  Investors continue to … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 6/22/22 - 06/22/22 09:47 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no notable items on the Economic Calendar today, but there was some positive from the MBA's Mortgage Loan Activity, which reported an increase of Mortgage Loan Origination with Purchase Transactions.  Fed Chair Powell begins his 2 day Congressional Testimony today.  His statements are pretty much the same.  He is talking very hawkish, but also trying to assure the Markets that the economy is doing well and it can handle higher rates.  Meanwhile, Investors are still concerned over the possibility of an upcoming recession due to the Fed Policy Path.  Stocks are down today, as the Money is flowing back … (1 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 6/21/22 - 06/21/22 11:33 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Existing Home Sales dipped 3.4% in May to 5.41 million seasonally adjusted units.  There's not a lot of data being released this week on the Economic Calendar, so most impact will come from headline/geopolitical news or investor sentiment.  Stocks are Up today, as investment dollars continued to flow from Bonds to Equities.  MBS started the morning down much lower and is currently Down 16bps, as Lender ratesheets have worsened since Friday's Market close.  Yields have shot up to just under 3.30% today.
**As Mortgage Rates spiked over 6% over past few days, ask me about our 7/6 ARM, which may be … (1 comments)

 
Mike Bjork (Evolve Bank & Trust)

Mike Bjork

Redondo Beach, CA

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Evolve Bank & Trust

Address: 28924 S Western Ave Ste 100, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA, 90275

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