interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/21/21 - 09/21/21 11:08 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts rose by 3.9% in August, while Building Permits (future Housing Starts) rose by 6.0%.  If you recall yesterday, that we had a slight uptick in the Home Builder Confidence.  Stocks are Up after yesterday's bloodbath (being blamed on Evergrande).  Investors are buying on the Dip.  Meanwhile, MBS started lower, but quickly recovered and are Up 2bps.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Likewise, Yields started a little higher, but has settled down to about 1.32%.
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/20/21 - 09/20/21 10:06 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The NAHB Home Builders Index rose 1 point to 76 in September, as Home Builders gain some confidence.  Stocks are taking a beating today, as China's Evergrande HK is making big headlines.  They're a top 3 real estate developer that is facing financial collapse, as approximately $100 million in interest payments will be due over next 2 weeks for maturity on some bonds.  This is being compared to (level wise) to Lehman's collapse during Credit Crisis even though this has been going on for months; and having a major impact on Global Markets.  Meanwhile, Investors will be looking ahead to … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/17/21 - 09/17/21 09:01 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Consumer Sentiment reported it's mid-September number rose from 70.3 to 71.0.  We'll receive September's final reading toward the end of the month.  Meanwhile, Stocks are facing volatility, as today is the Quadruple Witching (expiration of options for 4 different sectors).  Stocks are all in the Red today.  Also, heading into next week is the FOMC, which will hold very high relevance, as many investors are uncertain if the Fed will begin tapering this year or next due to the recent data.  MBS is also taking a bit of a beating today too, as it's currently Down 11bps.  It was … (1 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/16/21 - 09/16/21 11:14 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales surprised the Markets by posting an increase of 0.7% in August, as economists were projecting a drop.  When you exclude Autos, then it jumped up 1.8%.  The Philly Fed Index jumped up from 19.4 in August to 30.7 in September.  This index gauges the business activity in the Philadelphia region.  However, the Initial Jobless Claims rose to 332k last week for people applying for first time benefits.  Lastly, Business Inventories rose 0.5% July.  Stocks are Down today, as they brace for tomorrow's volatile day (Quadruple Witching Day) and ahead to next week's FOMC.  Meanwhile, MBS is Down 19bps, … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/15/21 - 09/15/21 12:04 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing in the NY region spiked in September, as the Empire State Index reported it jumping from 18.3 in August to 34.3 in September.  Also, Industrial Production rose 0.4% in August.  Investors were pleased with the data, as Stocks are trading in Positive Territory today.  However, they're keeping one eye toward next week's FOMC, as uncertainty on when tapering will begin unfolds.  Based on the tamer CPI yesterday, then the Fed may not be so anxious to begin tapering sooner and wait for better Jobs data before proceeding ahead with tapering.  Meanwhile, economic data out of China is not looking … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/14/21 - 09/14/21 08:50 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The big report for this week was released, which is the CPI, or Consumer Price Index.  This index measures inflation on the Consumer level.  The CPI rose 0.3% in August, however, it's YoY dropped by 0.1% to 5.3%.  The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy (and viewed more closely), rose only 0.1% in August and it's YoY dropped by 0.3% to 4.0%.  This may indicate that we've reached out peak with inflation and may see it reside a bit further, as we continue to reopen the economy.  This may create some confusion as to the Fed's next move next … (1 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/13/21 - 09/13/21 09:18 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no economic data to report today, but the CPI tomorrow and retail sales on Thursday will be the big headline items for this week.  Also, we need to look toward next week when the FOMC begins their 2 day meeting.  Here, we'll find out if the Fed will proceed to begin it's taper this year, or hold on until possibly next year.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, with NASDAQ in the Red.  There was a survey, done by Deutsche Bank, for Investors, which "2/3 are expecting at least a 5% decline in stocks by end of the year. … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/10/21 - 09/10/21 08:54 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% in Aug.  It's Core PPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.6%; however, it's YoY rose from 6.2% in July to 6.7% in Aug.  The PPI measures inflation on the Wholesale sector.  This index doesn't always receive the Market's respect, as it doesn't always carry over to the Consumer Market.  Lastly, the Wholesale Inventories continued the pace of 0.6% growth in July.  Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory after Biden's address yesterday, which he is looking to mandate vaccinations on a Federal level.  Investors are hopeful that this will help to fully reopen … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/9/21 - 09/09/21 11:32 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims came in at it's lowest level since March 2020, as it was reported that only 310k applied for first time unemployment benefits.  The 30 year Bond Auction went well, as did yesterday's 10 year Treasury Auction.  This has helped Mortgage Rates, which we'll touch on in a bit.  Meanwhile, Stocks are Down today.  The ECB announced they will reduce their asset purchases, but are not calling it tapering.  Seems like it's more or less semantics; however, the Market responded positively to it's announcement.  Investors are watching for any further announcements by Biden, as it's being reported that … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/8/21 - 09/08/21 09:39 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no major economic data to report today; however, later this morning will be the 10 year Treasury Auction.  This could impact Mortgage Rates.  Yesterday, the 3 year Treasury had good results, even though there were about $35 billion in Corporate Bonds competing with those investment dollars.  Typically, a busy week for Corporate Bonds is $20 billion for a WEEK.  Today, there will be more Corporate Bond offerings (including Walmart and Toyota).  Stay Tuned!  Stocks are Down today, as investors begin to rebalance their positions again for end of quarter.  Most Investors are resigned to the sentiment that the Fed … (2 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/7/21 - 09/07/21 11:48 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Light week, this week, for economic data!  The biggest factors for us (mortgage related) will be the Treasury and Bond Auctions being held throughout the week.  Today, we have the 3 yr Treasury (at the time of this video, it's results weren't released).  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory again today, as they are still reviewing the Non Farm Payrolls released from last Friday.  Now, Investors are resigned to the sentiment that the Fed won't announce any taper until end of the year; and possibly start tapering early 2022.  Meanwhile, MBS started the morning in a deep dive (down about … (1 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/3/21 - 09/03/21 09:36 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today is the BIG Day for Investors, as they await the BLS' Jobs data.  Even though there was some positive revisions (approximately 150k) to the previous 2 month's data, Investors are very disappointed with the 235k number that the BLS reported for August.  However, the Unemployment Rate still dropped from 5.4% to 5.2% in August.  Average Earnings rose 0.6% in August, which is a bit concerning, as this will be inflationary data.  The Average Workweek remained Unchanged at 34.7 hours/week.  Lastly, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped from 64.1 in July to 61.7 in August.  Anything above 50 is considered Positive/Expansion. … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/2/21 - 09/02/21 11:32 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims dropped about 14k from last week's report, to 340k applying for first time benefits.  Also, it was released that the Challenger Layoffs dropped by nearly 3 million and Continuing Claims dropped by about 150k.  This could set up for an interesting day tomorrow, as Investors await the Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment data from the BLS.  Meanwhile, Labor Costs final Q2 revision came in at 1.3%, which may be due to employers enticing employees to return to work; and this will create more inflation concerns ahead.  Also, Productivity's final Q2 came in at 2.1%.  Lastly, Factory Orders … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 9/1/21 - 09/01/21 10:54 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP was way off from it's estimates (613k) for August, which came in at 374k.  ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly rose from July to August, as it was reported at 59.9.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion/optimism.  Lastly, Construction Spending rose by 0.3% in July.  Stocks are taking it's queue from the ADP report today and all are in Positive Territory, as Bad News is Good News sentiment takes over Investors.  Why?  Because it may allow them to drink the Kool Aid a bit longer, as the Fed continues to monitor the Jobs data.  The most telling data will be released … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 8/31/21 - 08/31/21 09:49 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We have 2 Home Price Indices (HPI) being released today.  The Case Shiller rose 1.8% MoM in June and up 19.1% YoY.  The FHFA HPI, which measures single family homes with conforming loan limits, rose 1.6% MoM in June and it rose 18.8% YoY.  Manufacturing slowed down in Chicago for the month of August, as the Chicago PMI repots that it dropped from 73.4 to 66.8.  Also, Consumer Confidence dropped from 125.1 to 113.8 in August.  Stocks are Mixed for the last day of the month, as DOW is lone index in Positive Territory, however, by very thin margin.  China … (1 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 8/30/21 - 08/30/21 11:12 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  This week will be about Jobs data for the month of August.  The ADP will release their data on Wednesday; Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday; and Friday will be the BLS' Non Farm Payrolls.  However, today, we have Pending Home Sales for July, which dropped 1.8%.  Stocks continue to rise and set new records today, even though Hurrican Ida hit Louisiana.  It's estimated that $40 billion in damage; and New Orleans is without power for at least a few days, as all their power grids are unable to send out power to anybody.  MBS is currently Up 8bps today, after … (1 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 8/27/21 - 08/27/21 09:35 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Personal Income rost by 1.1% in July; whereas, Consumer Spending rose only 0.3%.  The Fed's favorite inflation gauge was released today, which is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE).  It rose 0.4% in July and it's YoY rose from 4.0% in June to 4.2% in July.  When you exclude food and energy, then you will have the Core PCE, or the Fed calls it Real Inflation (this is what the Fed watches more closely).  The Core PCE rose by 0.3% in July and it's YoY remained Unchanged at 3.6% (June's data was revised from 3.5% to 3.6%).  The Consumer Sentiment showed … (0 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 8/26/21 - 08/26/21 11:05 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly to 353k, according to this week's report.  The 2nd look at Q2 GDP rose to 6.6% (slightly lower than forecasts); which, we'll receive final reading next month.  Stocks are Down today after several days of breaking new highs.  Today is the first day of the Jackson Hole Symposium, which we're hearing from a number of Hawkish speakers (Bullard, Kaplan and George), whom are stating they'd like to taper sooner than later.  Also, there are reports out of Afghanistan, which there were a few Bomb attacks in Kabul.  Reports are stating several fatalities and wounded. … (1 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 8/25/21 - 08/25/21 10:46 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Durable Goods Orders dropped 0.1% in July; however, if you exclude Transportation, then it rose 0.7%.  The drop in airplane orders is what is bringing the Durable Goods data down.  Meanwhile, Stocks continue to break new records, as they base their economic views on Q2 Corporate Earnings (vs. reported economic data) and comments by Fed Kaplan last week (softening in the tone of tapering).  Tomorrow is the beginning of the Jackson Hole Symposium, which Investors are waiting to watch (especially on Friday when Fed Chair Powell speaks).  This will be the catalyst for the week!  MBS is currently Down … (1 comments)

interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 8/24/21 - 08/24/21 10:28 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  New Home Sales rose 1.0% in July, as June's data was revised higher (from 676k seasonally adjusted annual units to 701k); and July came in at 708k.  Meanwhile, Stocks continue in the Positive Territory after yesterday's announcement of the FDA Approval for Pfizer/BioNTech vaccinations.  So, far about 90% of corporations of released their Q2 Earnings Reports, which most of them reported positive results.  Congress is still working to pass the Infrastructure and Spending bills; and Biden met with the G7 Leaders, whom are presumably trying to appeal to him to remain in Afghanistan past the August 31st date.  Meanwhile, MBS … (0 comments)

 
Mike Bjork (Evolve Bank & Trust)

Mike Bjork

Redondo Beach, CA

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