interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/21/21
- 12/21/21 09:55 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic data to report today. With the short-week, most of this week's data will be reported tomorrow. The Markets are taking their cues from headline news and realizing that the concerns over the Omicron may have been a bit exaggerarated; so, investment dollars are starting to flow back from MBS/Treasuries and into the Equity Markets. As a result, Mortgage Rates have worsened a little bit today, as the MBS is currently Down 19bps. Treasuries have been climbing higher and currently sit just under 1.49%.
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/20/21
- 12/20/21 12:51 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we have the Leading Economic Indicators Indexe for the month of November, which rose by 1.1% in November. This idex gives us a good view of the upcoming economy over the next 6 months; however, it can change with the outstanding variables, like Inflation and the Corona virus. Stocks are Down today, as Investors worry about global growth, as many European places are implementing lockdowns over the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, they're also reacting to the latest obstacle for the Build Back Better program. My opinion, it's good that it doesn't pass! Meanwhile, MBS started Up 9bps and had moments … (0 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/17/21
- 12/17/21 09:22 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's nothing on the Economic Calendar today! Next week will be a short week, due to Christmas! Most of the important data next week will be on Wednesday! Today, Stocks are Mixed; as DOW and S&P are Down on global Central Banks becoming a bit more hawkish. NASDAQ is Up today, as Treasuries have dropped below 1.40%. NASDAQ is made up of primarily High Growth type stocks which Treasuries affect their profit (low number means more profit; whereas, high number is opposite). MBS broke above their 25 DMA yesterday (Up 34bps) and today is in process of breaking above it's … (1 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/16/21
- 12/16/21 11:10 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's a lot on the Economic Calendar today, so we'll start off with the Philly Fed Index, which measures the Business and Manufacturing sectors around the Philadelphia region. It plummeted from 39.0 in November to 15.4 in December. Anything above 0 is expansion, so it's still ok, but it was a sharp drop! Housing Starts jumped up from 1.52 million seasonally adjusted units in October to 1.679 million in November. Also, Building Permits (future Housing Starts) spiked from 1.653 million in October to 1.712 in November. Yesterday, we saw improvement with the Home Builder Confidence; and this is evidence of … (0 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/15/21
- 12/15/21 12:05 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are a few items on the Economic Calendar, which we'll start with this week's most important: Retail Sales for November, which only came in 0.3% MoM. Very dismal, considering it's the Holiday Season! The Empire State Index, which measures manufacturing around the New York region, jumped up to 31.9 for December. Anything above 0 is growth, and it's doing extremely well! The NAHB Home Builders Index are showing more confidence, as it moved up from 83 to 84. Also, the Business Inventories rose 1.2% in October. Now, what everybody (especially Wall Street) have been waiting for! The FOMC finally … (1 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/14/21
- 12/14/21 10:48 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Inflation for the Wholesale sector spiked in November, as the PPI rose 0.8%. It's Core PPI (excludes food & energy) rose 0.7%; and it's YoY rose from 7.0% in October to 7.7% in November. Highest in Decades!!! Today starts the first of 2 days for the FOMC, whom already indicated some upcoming policy changes (most notably increasing the pace of tapering; which also, alludes to them raising interest rates thereafter). Based on today's inflation data, it's spooking the Markets a bit, as many projections are now coming out that the Fed may double their pace of tapering, which will … (2 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/13/21
- 12/13/21 12:04 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic data to report today. The rest of the week will be full, but the most important one will be Retail Sales, which will be released on Wednesday. Tomorrow will start off the 2 day FOMC, which will give their announcement on Wednesday. Currently, the Markets have their eyes on what the Fed's next step will be... They're mainly going to check on their new pace of tapering and the dot plot; as to how many rate hikes and when they'll start. Currently Stocks are down and investment dollars are flowing into MBS/Bonds. MBS is currently Up 16bps, … (0 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/10/21
- 12/10/21 10:38 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The CPI rose 0.8% in December (slightly higher than it's forecast of 0.7%) and brought it's YoY from 6.2% to 6.8%. The Core CPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.5% and it's YoY went from 4.6% to 4.9%. Lastly, the Consumer Sentiment rose from 67.4 to 70.4 in December. People are feeling better during the Holidays ;) Both Stocks and MBS are shrugging off the Inflation data today, as they find it in the medium that will put more emphasis to next week's FOMC. They feel it was just "right" in terms of the Fed making any further adjustments to … (1 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/9/21
- 12/09/21 09:46 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims came at 184k last week, which is a new Pandemic low (and lowest since 1968); however, a word of caution, as like every Holiday season, there are lots of Temporary jobs that are created until end of the year. This temporary position can distort the numbers somewhat. Continuing Claims bumped up about 40k from previous week. The Wholesale Inventories increased 2.3% MoM in October. Later today, there will be a 30 year Bond Auction, which could play a significant role with MBS' positions. Earlier in the week, the 10 year Treasury Auction went well, which MBS … (0 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/8/21
- 12/08/21 12:30 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today; however, there was a 10 year Treasury, which went well and helped the MBS Market. Earlier in the day, Pfizer and BioNTech reported that the 3rd shot greatly increases the vaccinated from deadly variants, including Omicron. This helped to push stocks this morning, but at the expense of MBS/Treasuries. However, the 10 year Treasury Auction went well; and then we saw some improvement with MBS and Yields. MBS is currently Up 3bps, but was Down approximately approximately 17bps early on. When ratesheets came out, they were at the lows of the day; … (1 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/7/21
- 12/07/21 10:17 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we get the final reading for both the Productivity and Labor Costs for the 3rd Quarter. Productivity dropped 5.2%; and Labor Costs spiked upward to 9.6%. The latter is an index closely watched by the Fed, whom have already indicated a shift in policy in their upcoming FOMC. This new report will only add more incentive for the Fed to react quickly to stave off out of control inflation. Tomorrow, we'll have the 10 year Treasury Auction, which can impact Mortgage Rates, as we watch for any appetite from Investors. Currently, MBS is Down 16pbs, so Mortgage Rates have … (2 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/6/21
- 12/06/21 11:10 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic data released today, but the big report to watch for, will be on Friday, which is the CPI. The last time CPI was reported, then there was a fairly big spike, which the Markets reacted very negatively. So beware! The Markets are taking their cues from the weekend's news, which includes recent reports on the the Omicron variant, which may appear to be more mild than past variants. Also, China's PBOC reduced the reserve requirements for their banks; and Evergrande is coming clean that it may not be able to repay their creditors. Currently, MBS is currently … (1 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/3/21
- 12/03/21 10:26 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today is the Big Jobs data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)! We'll start with the Average Earnings (MoM) for November, which rose 0.3%; while the Average Work Week increased by 0.1 to 34.8 hrs/week. The Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 210k, which was WAY below it's forecast of 550k. However, it's Unemployment Rate dropped from 4.6% in October to 4.2%. Meanwhile, Factory Orders increased 1.0% in October; and the ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services sector) jumped up to 69.1 (anything above 50 is expansion). The Markets showed a lot of Uncertainty early in trading, as they didn't know how to … (0 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/2/21
- 12/02/21 11:52 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims rose back above the 200k level after (it was reported at 194k last week), which 222k applied for first time benefits last week. Some good news, lies with the Challenger Layoff (announced layoffs), which dropped by nearly 8 million; and the Continuing Claims dropped below 2 million. Tomorrow will be the BLS' Jobs data, which we'll see the Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Stocks are in positive territory today after a few days of beat downs. As the old adage goes, buy on the dip! There are a few Fed Members speaking today. We already … (1 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 12/1/21
- 12/01/21 11:20 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ADP released their Private Payrolls for November today, which is the first of 3 sets of Jobs reports this week, came in a little better than expected with 534k new jobs. The ISM Manufacturing PMI showed some improvement in November, when they announced it rising from 60.8 in October to 61.1 in November. Lastly, Construction Spending rose by 0.2% in October. The Markets are still watching for updates on the Omicron variant and the Testimony by Powell and Yellen before Congress. Yesterday, the Markets were spooked by comments by Moderna's CEO regarding the new variant and comments by Powell that … (0 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 11/30/21
- 11/30/21 11:27 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller Home Price Index (HPI), which measures the Top 20 Markets in the US, rose 1.0% in September and brought it's YoY down to 19.1%. Like it's counter-part, the FHFA HPI rose only 0.9% in September and it's YoY was brought down to 17.7%. The FHFA HPI shows homes with conforming loans. Speaking of FHFA, they released the new conforming loan limit for 2022 today, which rose to $647,200. As the HPIs address, there has been a deceleration in home prices, which means home prices continue to rise, but not at the high pace previously. Also, on the … (0 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 11/29/21
- 11/29/21 09:33 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: This week will be about November's Jobs Data, which will start on Wednesday with the ADP Private Payrolls. Today, we just have the Pending Home Sales for October, which was reported at 125,200 seasonally adjusted units. This was up 7.5% from September. Stocks are rebounding after a HUGE selloff on Friday, as the Markets were spooked on news of a new COVID variant, Omicron. MBS rebounded Upwards by 77bps, which eliminated last week's losses; and brought us back to the same levels, last seen since the previous week's Friday. Today, it started much lower (Down 19bps), but as the Market … (0 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 11/24/21
- 11/24/21 11:52 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Due to short week this week, we have a lot of data crammed into today. We'll start with Building Permits, which improved (slightly) in October. It went from 1.65 million seasonally adjusted units to 1.653 million in October. New Home Sales had a pretty steep revision in September, going from 800k seasonally adjusted units to 742k. In October, it was reported at 745k. After revisions, it improved, but it's far from September's initial report. Q3 GDP came out with it's 2nd look (final look will be in December), which moved up by 0.1%, to 2.1%. Durable Goods Orders continued to … (1 comments)
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 11/23/21
- 11/23/21 11:01 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Markit Services PMI dropped from 58.7 in October to 57.0 in November. The Markit Manufacturing PMI jumped up from 58.4 in October to 59.1 in November. Anything above 50 in either index constitutes expansion. The 7 year Treasury Auction went pretty well, and appears to be helping (somewhat) MBS/Treasuries. MBS is off it's earlier low and is currently Down 9bps; however, most Lenders priced their ratesheets prior to the Auction while pricing was worse. So, Mortgage Rates are priced a little higher this morning. Also, Yields have been hovering around 1.66% and 1.65%.
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interest rate trends: Daily Market Report 11/22/21
- 11/22/21 11:30 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Home Sales rose 0.8% in October, going from 6.29 million seasonally adjusted annualized units to 6.34 million. The big news today is the renomination of Jerome Powell for Fed Chair. Unfortunately for us, the Market wasn't too thrilled. The Bond/Treasury Market were more receptive to Brainard, apparently. As a result, MBS is Down 33bps, which the poor 5 year Treasury Auction showing contributed some to the decline. This means that Mortgage Rates worsened toward the worse levels felt last week. Also, Yields have spiked up to 1.62%. This will be a short week and may not see a lot … (1 comments)
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http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic data to report today. With the short-week, most of this week's data will be reported tomorrow. The Markets are taking their cues from headline news and realizing that the concerns over the Omicron may have been a bit exaggerarated; so, investment dollars are starting to flow back from MBS/Treasuries and into the Equity Markets. As a result, Mortgage Rates have worsened a little bit today, as the MBS is currently Down 19bps. Treasuries have been climbing higher and currently sit just under 1.49%.
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