interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/17/19 - 06/17/19 08:51 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing in the NY region had one of it's worst declines in June, according to the Empire State Index, which went from 17.8 in May to -8.6 in June.  Also, confidence is starting to wane with Home Builders, as the NAHB Home Builder Index, which is a survey to gauge their confidence dropped from 66 to 64; however, any reading above 50 is considered optimism.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as i'ts preparing for the FOMC.  A few Economists are calling for a Rate Cut at this coming meeting, but the odds are around 27% for such an occurence.  … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/14/19 - 06/14/19 08:34 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's a lot of data on the Economic Calendar to report today. We'll start with the Retail Sales and Retail Sales without Autos for May, which were both up 0.5%. This was on the heels of a positive revision the previous month for both data points. Industrial Production rose 0.4% in May. Capacity Utilization rose from 77.9% to 78.1% in May. However, Consumer Sentiment dropped from 100 to 97.9 in June. It's final number will be toward the end of the month, so we'll see if the Consumer is feeling less enthused continues for the whole month. Business Inventories rose … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/13/19 - 06/13/19 08:09 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose 3k from the previous week's numbers, going from 219k to 222k. However, the previous week's numbers were revised higher by 1k (218k to 219k). Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning. There was a more positive tone today, as President Trump indicated that there was no timetable on any further Tariffs with China, and a deal could happen. Oil is rising a bit this morning on news that a few tankers were attacked at the Gulf of Oman. Iran is suspected in these attacks, as there are growing tensions between US and Iran. MBS is … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/12/19 - 06/12/19 08:49 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Priced Index rose only 0.1% in May, which it's YoY dropped from 2.0% to 1.8%. The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose only 0.1%. It's YoY dropped from 2.1% to 2.0%. Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, despite the lower Consumer Inflation data, as Investors continue to watch the drama between the US and China' Trade Talks. President Trump recently tweeted that he's holding up the talks, and his sentiment is that the deal should be great for both US and China, otherwise, there's no sense in making an agreement. This is souring the Markets a … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/11/19 - 06/11/19 08:17 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: NFIB Small Business, which measures the confidence among Small Businesses, rose from 103.5 in April to 105.0 in May. Producer Priced Index, which measures inflation on the Wholesale sector, rose 0.1% in May. However, it's YoY dropped from 2.2% to 1.8%, further illustrating that inflation is still fairly tame. Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as China plans a new Stimulus project aimed to re-build it's infracture within it's local municipalities and is issuing Bonds for this project. MBS are Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing. Yields are now at 2.15%.
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/10/19 - 06/10/19 08:10 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today. Stocks are Up this morning after it was announced over the weekend that the US and Mexico reached an agreement over the migration issue, so the US will not impose sanctions. Steven Mnuchin and PBC's Yi Gang had reportedly very candid and constructive talks while at the G20 meeting. Reports came out of China that their Exports rose slightly and their imports dropped sharply. MBS is Down 19bps, so Mortgage Rates rose slightly. Yields rose to 2.14%.
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/7/19 - 06/07/19 08:31 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nonfarm Payroll really disappointed in May, as only 75k new jobs were created. Also, there were revisions from the previous 2 months, which were lowered by 75k combined. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%. Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% in May. Wholesale Inventories rose 0.8% in April. Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as today's Bad News (in terms of disappointing Job Numbers) is feeling like Good News because the sentiment is the Fed will cut Interest Rates sooner than later (possibly this summer). There's been some progress made on the talks with Mexico to help curb the influx of people … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/6/19 - 06/06/19 08:09 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose this week from 215k from previous week to 218k. These are still low numbers, which is why Investors shrugged off the ADP number yesterday. They're anticipating approximately 190k new jobs for tomorrow's BLS' report. Q1 Productivity was revised a bit lower, from 3.6% to 3.4%. Unit Labor Costs (Q1) was revised further declines from -0.9% to -1.6%. This can help keep inflation low. Stocks have shifted into Negative Territory this morning, as the Market Sentiment became more risk aversed due to the Dovish Speak with Central Speakers and US' Trade Talks with Mexico and China. The … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/5/19 - 06/05/19 08:30 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ADP Employment number really missed it's mark in May. It went from 271k new private jobs in April to only creating 27k in May. This didn't weigh on the Market too much, as the ADP's number doesn't always translate to the same as the BLS'. Most think the BLS' numbers on Friday will be around 190k due to the low Jobless Claims during May. The Service Industry is still humming along. We have 2 reports on this sector. First is the Markit Services PMI, which remained Unchanged at 50.9 in May; the other is ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which rose from … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/4/19 - 06/04/19 08:18 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Factory Orders dropped 0.8% in April. Starting tomorrow, we'll look at the Job Numbers for May, which begin with the ADP numbers, then Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday and BLS' Unemployment Rate and Jobs data. Stocks are rebounding after yesterday's Negative Close. Investors are watching the 4 biggest Tech Companies stave off tougher regulations, as the US Gov't aims to go after them with Anti Trust suits. Some optimism developed, as reports out of China seem to indicate that they'd like to work out the differences by resuming talks. Fed Members Bullard and Powell touch on the possibility of the … (2 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/3/19 - 06/03/19 08:43 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Overall Manufacturing dipped in May. The Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.6 to 50.5; whereas, ISM Manufacturing Index dropped from 52.8% to 52.1%. These are the lowest levels we've seen in approximately the past 20 months. Construction Spending was revised from -0.9% to -1.7% in March; and April's numbers were almost identical to the revised numbers in March, so it was flat. Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory. NASDAQ is down because of the Anti Trust concerns with Google. President Trump landed in London today. Tariffs may go up again for Mexico within the next week to two, if there's … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/31/19 - 05/31/19 08:26 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot of Economic data to go over this morning from the Calendar. We'll start off with Personal Income, which rose 0.5% in April; whereas Consumer Spending rose only 0.3% in April. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose 0.3% in April, which it's YoY rose from 1.4% to 1.5%. The Core PCE (also, known as Core Inflation) rose 0.2% in April, and rose from 1.5% to 1.6% YoY. The Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation. It removes variables, food and energy, from the PCE, and provides a controlled number. Manufacturing in Chicago region improved, as the Chicago PMI … (2 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/30/19 - 05/30/19 08:10 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose from 212k (this was revised slightly higher from 211k) to 215k (same as forecast). Still very low amount of people filing for Unemployment. Q1 GDP was revised slightly downward, from 3.2% to 3.1%. Many economists were forecasting it to drop to 3.0%. So far, it's been a great start to 2019. We've had very poor Q1 in the past, as bad weather contributed to the past low numbers. Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as the rhetoric between the US and China's trade negotiations seemed to have subsided a bit for a day. Investors were also … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/29/19 - 05/29/19 08:14 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing scheduled for the Economic Calendar today, but tomorrow will be much busier. The Stock Market is in Negative Territory this morning on more news on the escalating tensions between US and China. China is now reporting that they may restrict exports to the US on Rare Earth Minerals that are used for Micro Chips, Mobile Phones and other every day electronics. This coupled with the data supporting a possible global economic slowdown, unresolved Brexit and tensions between the EC and Italy have Investors concerned. MBS is Up 5bps, so it's not enough for any change to develop with pricing … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/28/19 - 05/28/19 08:04 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Case Shiller Home Price Index indicates that home prices continue to slow down, having a 3.9% annualized growth in February to 3.7% in March. Consumer Confidence Index represents the overall satisfaction by the Consumer with the standing of the US Economy, as it continues to rise from 129.2 to 134.2 in May. Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning, as they still watch for any news on China/US Trade discussion, and prepare for a long, drawn out Trade War developing. There was an announcement of a Merger between Fiat Chrysler and Renault that would make them the 3rd largest Auto … (3 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/24/19 - 05/24/19 08:16 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods Orders dropped 2.1% in April, and it's March's number was revised lower, from 2.6% to 1.7%. The big drop was led by lack of Boeing orders (this is after the grounding of their 737 airplanes). If you remove the Transportation, the Durable Goods would be flat. The Core Capital Goods Orders dropped 0.9% in April, as the index reflects Business Investment. This is the first drop in 4 months. Stocks are trading Up this morning on cautious optimism based on a comment by President Trump that he may allow the standing of Huawei to be negotiated into a … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/23/19 - 05/23/19 09:06 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from 212k from previous week to 211k last week; another good sign for Jobs. However, we show Manufacturing and Services Industry slowing down. Markit Manufacturing PMI flash dropped from 52.6 in April to 50.6 in May; and Markit Services PMI flash dropped from 53.0 in April to 50.9 in May. Both indexes are showing that both industries are on the verge of contracting (anything above 50 on these indices is expansion, and below is contraction). Also, New Home Sales dropped in April. They went from 723k annualized units in March to 673k in April. Stocks are … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/22/19 - 05/22/19 07:37 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The only item on the Economic Calendar today is the FOMC Minutes, which will be released at 11:15am PST. Investors are eager to review the Minutes of the Feds' last meeting and look for clues on their thoughts on the economy, rate movement and US/China. Stocks are Down, as they await the FOMC Minutes. Also, both China and US appear to be readying themselves to dig in for the long haul, as tensions continue to escalate between the two. MBS is UP 8bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged. Yields are currently sitting at 2.40%.
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/21/19 - 05/21/19 08:07 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Homes Sales slumped a bit in April, as they go from 5.21 million annualized units to 5.19 million. Stocks are cautiously trading in Positive Territory, as the US placed a Temporary (90 days) Exception on US Businesses dealings with Huawei. MBS is currently Up 3bps, which Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged. Yields have crept up to 2.42% now.
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/20/19 - 05/20/19 08:11 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report from the Calendar today. Stocks are being driven by the continued tensions between the US and China, as both parties agree they won't be meeting any time soon, as neither side is willing to negotiate further. Also, US Companies are preparing to holdback on any business relationships with Hauwei, as they will be limited on what they may sell to them. Stocks are trading in Negative Territory. MBS is down 2bps, but it's not enough to change pricing on Mortgage Rates, so they remain Unchanged. Yields are currently at 2.39%.
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