interest rates: Daily Market Report 8/2/21 - 08/02/21 11:59 AM  The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped below 60 for the first time this year, as constraints in the supply chain show it's effect in Manufacturing data.  It came in at 59.5 for July.  Construction Spending only rose 0.1% for June.  Stocks are Up today, as comments by Fed Member Brainard indicated that the Fed will most likely not begin tapering talk at it's Jackson Hole meeting later this month.  She indicated they will want to see some data after kids have returned to school and people begin to go back to work.  So, Investors are thinking that the earliest that the … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/30/21 - 07/30/21 11:29 AM  The PCE, the Fed's favorite measure for Inflation, rose 0.5% MoM in July, as it's YoY rose to 4.0%; whereas it's Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4% MoM in July and it's YoY rose only to 3.5% (beating hotter estimates of 3.7%+).  The Employment Costs for Q2 rose 0.7% (lower than estimates).  Personal Income rose 0.1% in June; and Personal Spending rose 1.0% in June.  Business activity in the Chicago region spiked in July, as the Chicago PMI rose from 66.1 to 73.4.  According to the UofM Survey for Consumer Sentiment, it rose from 80.8 in June to … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/29/21 - 07/29/21 10:55 AM  Initial Jobless Claims continue to disappoint again, as they remain in the 400k range; which happens to be this week's report (400k exactly).  Another trend popped up, is the Continuing Claims, which is starting to rise again.  Something we'll need to watch closely!  We get our first look at Q2 GDP, which forecasts are calling for 8.5%; however, the report is very disappointing, as it is being reported at 6.5%.  We will get 2 more looks, which could be revised.  Pending Home Sales dropped 1.9% in June, which some are saying that it could be a cooling off period for … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/28/21 - 07/28/21 09:46 AM  The FOMC will wrap up their 2 day meeting today and give their announcement at 11am PST.  We're not expecting any rate changes and there won't be any dot plot released today.  Currently, the Market is waiting on the Fed, so it could get really choppy out there in the afternoon.  Investors are tiring of hearing the same rhetoric; and many are pushing for tapering to happen sooner than later, as inflation continues to rise.  The Stock Market is Mixed, as the DOW is currently the only index in the Red; however, it's very light trading, so it can quickly … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/27/21 - 07/27/21 09:55 AM  The Durable Goods Orders revised their May's numbers from 2.3% to 3.2%; whereas, it's June data disappointed with 0.8%.  Because of the May revision, it didn't affect the overall Markets.  When you exclude Transportation, then it only rose 0.3% in June (also, disappointing, as it was forecasted at 0.8%).      The FHFA Home Price Index (HPI), which measures homes with Conforming loans (loan amounts up to $548,250) rose 18.0% YoY in May; and Case Shiller, which measures the 20 largest cities in the US, rose 17.0% YoY in May.  Needless to say, Home Prices continued to rocket into the … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/26/21 - 07/26/21 10:44 AM  New Homes Sales dropped by 6.6% in June to 676k seasonally adjusted annualized units.  This is also on the heels of a lower revision to May's numbers, which dropped from the initial 769k to 724k.  Stocks are Mixed today, as they look ahead in the week, as the Fed will begin their 2 day meeting tomorrow and we'll have some members of the FAANG releasing their Q2 Earnings reports this week, including Tesla's being released after hours today.  NASDAQ is the lone index in Red, as US and China's relationship become a bit more contentious.  MBS started the morning a … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/23/21 - 07/23/21 11:05 AM  Today, we have IHS Markit PMI releasing their 2 reports, Manufacturing and Services.  The Services sector dropped down to 59.7; however, the Manufacturing sector rose to 63.1 in July.  Stocks continue their upward trend, based on Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports and keeping an eye toward next week's schedule of events (Q2 Earnings Reports for much of the High Tech Companies and FOMC).  MBS started the morning much lower, which Lenders whom release their ratesheets earlier on may have priced for the worse; however, MBS is Up 6bps.  So, Mortgage Rates should be priced now to the same pricing we found … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/22/21 - 07/22/21 11:15 AM  The Initial Jobless Claims spiked last week to 419k (breaking back above the 400k level).  The good news is the Continued Claims dropped slightly.  NAR reported that Existing Home Sales increased from 5.78 million annualized units in May to 5.86 million in June.  Lastly, the Leading Indicators shows a 0.7% improvement for the month of June.  Stocks continue to rise today on continued strong Q2 Corporate Earnings releases.  MBS and Yields got a boost from the ECB's announcement today, which was very dovish and Bond friendly.  MBS is Up 19bps, which brings us back to same levels on Monday/Tuesday; whereas, … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/21/21 - 07/21/21 11:33 AM  There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are continuing upward trend on more good Q2 Earnings Reports.  The ECB announced a bit of a dovish signal on their stance with inflation, which sounds similar to that of our Fed's current stance.  This set a tone for the Bond/Treasury Market.  MBS is currently Down 19bps, as Mortgage Rates worsen a bit today.  Yields jumped Up to 1.29%.
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/20/21 - 07/20/21 11:01 AM  Housing Starts increased from (lower revision) of 1.546 million annualized units in May to 1.643 million, or up 6.3%, in June.  However, Building Permits declined by 5.1%, from 1.683 million annualized units in May to 1.598 million in June.  These, of course, are future Housing Starts.  We have seen a little bit of a pullback in Home Builders sentiment recently, so this isn't too surprising.  Stocks are rebounding after yesterday's big selloff.  Investors are buying back in, as sentiment is Monday's actions were a bit overblown.  MBS are off it's earlier highs, which better pricing was very short-lived.  Mortgage Rates … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/19/21 - 07/19/21 10:54 AM  The NAHB Home Builder Sentiment dropped one point to 80 for June.  This index gauges the confidence with Home Builders.  This week will mostly be about housing data.  Stocks are WAY Down today (comparable to last October).  Investors are concerned that the Markets may have Peaked and the rising Delta variant cases globally.  Along with that, Investors are watching tensions rise between the US and China.  MBS Is Up 31bps, as Mortgage Rates improve from Friday's close.  Yields plunged all the way down to just under 1.19%.
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/15/21 - 07/15/21 09:57 AM  The Philly Fed dropped from 30.7 in June to 21.9 in July.  This is still a great number; however, the size of the drop is a bit alarming.  Jobless Claims continue to improve, as 360k applied for first time benefits last week.  This is a new low, not seen since last March.  Also, we're seeing improvement with Continued Claims, as more people are going back to work.  The Empire State Index rose to an all time high in July, as it jumped from 17.4 in June to 43.0 in July.  Lastly, Industrial Productions came in below estimates (0.6%) in June … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/14/21 - 07/14/21 10:07 AM  Both the Producer Price Index headline number (PPI) and it's Core PPI (excludes food and energy) rose 1.0% MoM in June.  The Core PPI is now up to 5.6% YoY, which brings us to inflationary levels last seen in 2008 when price of a barrel of oil reached all time highs of $150/barrel.  Stocks are back in Positive Territory after yesterday's losses.  We will receive more Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports today; and Fed Chair Powell has testified before the House Finance Committee today.  Nothing has changed, but the Investors like hearing the message repeated.  MBS is regaining it's losses yesterday; … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/13/21 - 07/13/21 09:43 AM  Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core CPI (excludes food & energy) rose 0.9% in June.  The CPI rose from 5.0% in May to 5.4% in June; while, the Core CPI rose from 3.8% in May to 4.5% in June.  This is the highest spike we've seen in 30 years (Sept, 1991).  Markets initially reacted negatively, but has since subsided.  Currently, only the DOW is in Negative Territory.  Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports are beginning to be released, as several of the Major financial institutions (like Chase and Goldman Sachs) released their reports today.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/12/21 - 07/12/21 11:05 AM  Nothing really on the Economic Calendar; however, there are some Treasury Auctions this morning (3yr and 10yr).  The 3yr didn't go as well as hoped and did negatively affect the Markets (usually it doesn't impact); and the 10yr came in rather decent, which wiped out the negative movement caused by the 3yr.  Stocks are Mixed today, as NASDAQ is the lone index in the Red.  Investors are primarily looking ahead for this week's data.  This week, we have the beginning of Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports, Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Testimony and a new look at Inflation data (CPI and PPI). … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/9/21 - 07/09/21 11:38 AM  Wholesale Inventories rose 1.3% in May.  Meanwhile, Stocks are rebounding today, after a bit of a pullback the last few days.  They're expected to end the week on a high note.  Investors are torn between "good news and Fed tapering sooner" and "bad news and keeping the easy money flowing".  Next week, they'll have a bit more of a distraction, as Corporations release their Q2 Earnings Reports.  Currently MBS is Down 22bps, so Mortgage Rates are off by about an .125% to it's rate.  They and Yields are currently looking for it's next range, so we'll experiences some of these … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/8/21 - 07/08/21 11:18 AM  The Initial Jobless Claims revised last week's report from 364k to 371k; and reported this week at 373k.  However, we are still seeing a dropoff in the Continued Claims (by nearly 150k) from last week.  Stocks are Down on the trend of Yields dropping today.  Investors are changing their worries of surging inflation to is this all the growth we'll see (?) attitude.  Yields seem to be falling more on a Technical level, which has many Investors confused.  It touched near a new Technical level (1.25%) and is currently sitting at 1.29%.  Investors are also keeping an eye on the … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/7/21 - 07/07/21 09:09 AM  Later today, the FOMC Minutes will be released, which will be our most impactful economic data for this week (as it will be a rather light week).  However, the BLS released a report showing that there were 9.2 million Job Openings for the month of May.  The Markets are holding back today, as NASDAQ goes into the Red.  MBS are currently Up 6bps, but it's still within our range yesterday, after it pulled back some to close +22bps.  This basically means that Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields continue their decent, as it hit 1.31%, and it currently … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/6/21 - 07/06/21 09:33 AM  The drop in the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, from 64.0 in May to 60.1 in June, added fuel to the fire today, as trading was very light until the report was released.  Stocks are all in Negative Territory this morning.  This piece of data is really the only thing being reported today, which is having the most impact with the Markets.  However, MBS is Up 27bps, so Mortgage Rates have seen an improvement with their pricing today.  Yields have fallen below another Technical level to just under 1.37%.  These levels haven't been seen since end of February/early March.
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 7/2/21 - 07/02/21 12:07 PM  We receive Job data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today, for  which is the catalyst we've been waiting all week.  The Average Earnings rose only 0.3% in June, while the Average Work Week (in hours) dropped to 34.7 hrs.  The Non-Farm Payrolls came in above estimates, at 850k for June; however, it's Unemployment Rate rose to 5.9%.  The Unemployment Rate rose because more people entered the workforce.  Investors are liking the Jobs data enough to feel it's "not too hot, nor not too cold", whereas the Fed would pull it's tapering too soon.  As a result, Stocks are … (0 comments)

Mike Bjork (Evolve Bank & Trust)

Mike Bjork

Redondo Beach, CA

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Evolve Bank & Trust

Address: PO Box 998, Redondo Beach, CA, 90277

Office: (310) 694-3544

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