interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/24/10
- 06/24/10 06:01 AM
Stock Market is down so far this morning. The Bond Market started the day higher (than yesterday's close), but since has closed the gap to almost the same level as yesterday's close. Initial Jobless Claims are still high. The overall Durable Goods is down because of lack of Transportation orders; if you exclude the Transportation orders, then it was Up. It's better to view "Excluding Transportation" because they are such Big Ticket Items that they easily skewer the numbers, which can be misleading. The 5 Year Treasury Auction didn't fare well, so we lost most of our gains for the day … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 6/01/10
- 06/01/10 10:42 AM
Manufacturing is down slightly from April's numbers, but it's still reflecting productivity. On the Technical side, the Euro is currently at a 4 year low and China's ISM Index has showed it's economy slowing down. As a result, Traders are concerned with the difficult road to our economic recovery may be that much more difficult. China needed to slow it's economy, as it was growing too rapid. With this in mind, then you have to wonder if it's still possible for the US to see any growth any time soon (?). As a result, the Stock Market dropped at the last … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/26/10
- 05/26/10 07:31 AM
Stock Market is Up Today because of the Great News on the New Home Sales. This has weakened the Bond Market a little bit today, so Home Loan Rates are down a little bit from yesterday. Durable Goods had some great readings, but if you exclude the Transportation (which can offset the real numbers), then it wasn't so good (at a -1.0%). Obviously, the Tax Credits helped sell homes, but there will be questions if the Market can sustain itself. Also, there is still issues with Europe, which is nearing another possible Credit freeze, as Lenders are becoming concerned about the … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/24/10
- 05/24/10 06:11 AM
Some Good News today, which Existing Home Sales jumped much higher than expectations; add a 4% Year over Year increase to the National Median Home Price too. The Stock Market has been a bit shaky this morning with the DJIA down for most of the morning, while the other indices have been up. Traders still watching the EU, which the Euro is still taking a bit of a beating. News to watch for the week include: Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, GDP, Initial Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE -Fed's favorite gauge for inflation). Friday, the Trader's bought in … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Update 5/13/10
- 05/13/10 06:15 AM
Not a lot on the plate today. The Initial Jobless Claims has reduced from the prior week. DJIA was down a little bit today. The Auctions that have been going on all week have been ok, so no news startling the MBS/Bond Market. All in all, interest rates have remained steady this week. It is starting to approach an over-bought position, so it will be interesting to watch how long it will last. The European news have been helping mortgage interest rates to remain low. … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/11/10
- 05/11/10 05:26 AM
Another Technical Factor Day!!! Not much moving either the Stock, nor Bond/MBS Market today. It may change some, as there is about $38 Billion Auction on the 3 year today -it's expected to go well. The Chart is showing another possible decisive move that will need to be made shortly. … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Update 5/10/10
- 05/10/10 06:21 AM
Mostly Technical Factors Today...New Bailout Package for EU ($1 Trillion), which the Fed, among many other World Central Banks are pledging their support. As we know, this deep concern has created tremendous jitters in the Financial Markets, so the Central Banks are stepping in to calm the Markets. As a result, you're seeing the DJIA averaging over 400 so far today. Because the concerns in the EU are calming down, then you can expect to see the Traders concentrating on economic growth in the US (Retail Sales will be reported on Friday). Interest rates have worsened from the levels of Thursday … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/7/10
- 05/07/10 05:11 AM
Happy Upcoming Mother's Day to all of you Mothers out there. Market is still Trading on Fears in Europe. Germany's Parliament passed the Bill to lend Greece Money today, as Greece's Parliament passed a Bill to accept the Terms yesterday, which had led to rioting in their streets yesterday. Job numbers came in very good, as they were revised to a more positive growth for the February and March too. The Unemployment Number increased, which the Labor Dept. said it was owed to a huge increase in the Labor Force. Also, the Hourly Earnings came in Flat, which eases concerns for … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Marketing Report 5/6/10
- 05/06/10 06:00 AM
The Bond Market, while the Stock Market is tanking, is on Fire. I don't anticipate this remaining at this level for long. It's primarily based on emotion, and at some point will drop down to more realistic levels. Productivity (Q1) has slowed down a bit (compared to Q4 of 2009); Initial Jobless Claims are still high; Greece is needing a Bailout; Questions on possible Bailout Packages for Spain and Portugal are being mentioned; and Euro dropped to 14 month low (under $1.30 now). Tomorrow's Job Numbers will be HUGE. By way, I added music today (Sean Paul's "Temperature") to illustrate the … (2 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 5/5/10
- 05/05/10 08:10 AM
Happy Cinco De Mayo!!!! Huge Gap in favor of the Bond Market today (improvement for Bonds/MBS). ADP showed some improvement in the Job Department, as well as, the ISM Services Index showing productivity. Greece is in the news again; as well as, concerns for Portugal and Spain. All part of the Sell off on the Stock Market. … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Update 5/4/10
- 05/04/10 05:28 AM
DOW is down over 200 points today because of concerns of Greece's inability to repay Bailout Money (received yesterday from EU). "Flight to Safety" is assisting MBS today, so we are experiencing improved mortgage interest rates. Pending home sales continued to be good, which will normally improve the DOW and interest rates will worsen, but the Greece Concerns are greater than the good news reported on the Pending Home Sales today. … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/30/10
- 04/30/10 07:50 AM
Lot of Economic News today, starting with the GDP and Chicago PMI. Bond (MBS) Market is currently up. It may be in an Over-bought position, so look for it to drop in the very near future (basing it on past experiences in this this price range). A little stat that I encountered (not mentioned in video) is that we will need the GDP come in at 5% for the entire year, just to reduce our Unemployment by 1%. I thought that was an amazing stat. I guess that is why most economists are projecting high unemployment for the next 10 years. … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Update 4/29/10
- 04/29/10 06:15 AM
The Initial Jobless Claims were slightly down from the prior weeks numbers. The Fed's Policy Statement yesterday remained unchanged. Tomorrow will be the Chicago PMI and GDP information. Tomorrow should be the Market Movers of the Week. … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/26/10
- 04/26/10 05:04 AM
No News today. Relying mostly on the Technicals. We'll have more news later this week, especially Wed. and Fri. We have experienced better pricing from Friday's numbers, as the Trading started about 16bps higher than Friday's Close. We'll possibly remain in good shape, if we remain above the 10 Day Moving Average. … (0 comments)
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interest rates: Daily Market Update for 4/23/10
- 04/23/10 06:17 PM
The Long Term Upward Trendline has been broken. Good Economic News reported today, starting with the Durable Goods Orders (deceiving report because of exclusion of transportation, number is highest in awhile); and New Home Sales blew the roof. Traders are concerned about the $120 Billion of Supply coming into the Market next week. Meanwhile, they've lessened their concerns for Greece (as evidenced in yesterday's complete reversal). There may be a false gain for today to make up the large Gap (between yesterday's close and today's open, approximately 25bps). Most likely we'll see a Trend going downward next week.
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Stock Market is down so far this morning. The Bond Market started the day higher (than yesterday's close), but since has closed the gap to almost the same level as yesterday's close. Initial Jobless Claims are still high. The overall Durable Goods is down because of lack of Transportation orders; if you exclude the Transportation orders, then it was Up. It's better to view "Excluding Transportation" because they are such Big Ticket Items that they easily skewer the numbers, which can be misleading. The 5 Year Treasury Auction didn't fare well, so we lost most of our gains for the day … (0 comments)
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