interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/21/22 - 04/21/22 12:45 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region dipped in April, as the Philly Fed Index dropped from 27.4 in March to 17.6 in April.  The number for April is still pretty good, but the steep decline is something to monitor.  Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 2k from last week's report to 184k; while Continuing Claims declined, as well.  Lastly, the Leading Indicator rose 0.3% in March.  Investors are listening to Fed Members today, including Jerome Powell sitting on a panel with the ECB's Lagarde.  The takeaway from their messages are hawkish, which include a preamble of what to expect at the … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/20/22 - 04/20/22 11:15 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Existing Homes sales dropped by 2.7% in March, as the seasonally adjusted units were lowered to 5.77 million.  This is mostly due to low inventories.  Investors are reviewing Q1 Earnings reports, which Netflix is in the headlines, as they reported a decline of 200k subscriptions.  A few Fed Members are speaking today; and they main theme appears to be a quick route to "Neutral" level for Fed Funds Rate, which is around 2.50%.  This probably means that the Fed will raise rates at a higher than normal pace to attain that level sooner, than later.  We had a 20 year … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/19/22 - 04/19/22 10:46 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing starts rose 0.3% in March to 1.793 million seasonally adjusted units.  Also, Permits rose 0.4%, as it reached 1.873 million.  Both exceeded forecasts; especially as confidence with Home Builders dropped 2 points for April, so next month's release will be interesting.  Stocks are Up today, as they continue to review Q1 Earnings Reports.  Also, IMF stated the obvious, which is the expected economic growth will slow down due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.  They stated it will slow down to 3.6% (by their estimate) and did not mention anything regarding thoughts on recession or stagflation.  European Markets finally  reopened, after … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/18/22 - 04/18/22 10:24 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  This week will feature a lot of Housing data, so stay tuned!  Today, we have the NAHB Home Builders Index for April, which dropped by 2 points to 77.  This measures the Home Builders confidence, which has lessened to the spike in Mortgage Rates in 2022.  Investors are thinking about inflation and the Fed Policy, as they continue  to review Q1 Corporate Earnings, which have been fairly Mixed.  Stocks are Down today.  MBS is somewhat following the Stock Markets cue, as they started the morning lower, but has since rised to Unchanged levels (currently Up 2bps), but not enough to … (2 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/14/22 - 04/14/22 12:32 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims rose 18k to 185k last week; however, the Continuing Claims declined.  Retail Sales rose only 0.5% in March, as gas prices and inflation seem to be affecting many US households and their buying behavior.  But in April, Consumers felt a bit better, as the Consumer Sentiment showed an improvement from 59.4 in March to 65.7 in April.  I jokingly commented that it had to do with Spring Break ;)  However, Business Inventories increased 1.5% in February.  Hopefully, this is signs of improvement with the Supply Chain issues.  Markets Closed early today, as only the DOW closed in … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/13/22 - 04/13/22 10:20 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation on the Wholesale side, was released today for March.  The PPI rose by 1.4% in March, while it's YoY increased by about 1% to 11.2%.  The Core PPI (which excludes food and energy) rose 1.0%, while it's YoY increased to 9.2%.  Investors are shrugging this off a bit today, as they think inflation may be topping out and this excess may not be passed onto the Consumer.  There are a number of Central Banks around the world meeting this week, which Bank of Canada and Bank of New Zealand raised their rates … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/12/22 - 04/12/22 09:46 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% in March and it's YoY rose to 8.5%, which is the hottest number since 1982!  However, it's Core CPI (excludes food and energy) rose only 0.3% and it's YoY rose to 6.5%.  The Core CPI data came in lower than forecasts, which provided hope to Investors that maybe we're seeing a top for inflation levels and hope to see it begin to descend (and how fast it can descend).  Markets are doing well on the CPI news!  However, the NFIB Small Business Index reported a 2 year low.  This index measures the confidence … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/11/22 - 04/11/22 11:57 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no Economic data to report today.  This week will be mostly inflation data being reported (CPI and PPI), which will have an impact with the Markets.  Today, there was a 3 year Treasury Auction, which didn't have any impact.  Investors will look ahead when they begin to release the Q1 Corporate Earnings Reports.  MBS continues it's struggles, as it's Down 44bps this morning.  Mortgage Rates continue to rise, as a result.  Part of the issue is the very hawkish talk (which is normally good for Bonds, but serving as a reminder to investors currently of the inflation situation). … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/8/22 - 04/08/22 12:01 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Wholesale Inventories rose 2.5% in February.  Markets are positioning themselves for next week ahead of the release of the Q1 Corporate Earnings Reports.  There's not much impacting the Markets today, other than positioning themselves; and Stocks have been dictating the Market movements.  MBS has much against it; and the Markets are still looking for a top, but it hasn't been figured out.  We have the new Fed Policy, which will greatly affect it's direction with it's rate hikes, Balance Sheet Reduction and sale of MBS -all bad news for MBS!  On top of that, the rate hikes may not … (2 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/7/22 - 04/07/22 03:20 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims continued to drop, which is good news.  Last week, only 166k filed for first time benefits; and the previous week was revised lower (from 202k to 171k).  However, the Continued Claims rose last week to 1.523 million; and the previous had a very high revision (from 1.307 million to 1.506 million).  I typically do these reports earlier in the day, but today was a bit too busy; and I wanted to get this information out for you, so it was done after the Markets closed.  Stocks were in Mixed Territory and MBS were mainly in positive … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/6/22 - 04/06/22 11:46 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Mortgage Loan Activity reported by the MBA show both Purchase and Refinance sides to have declined from last week, but Purchase side is still showing some resiliency.  The BIG wait happened today, as Investors reviewed the FOMC Minutes.  As they feared, the Fed is more worried about inflation than they were back in January.  It indicates that they will apply 0.5% rate hikes and reduce the Balance Sheet by $95 Billion/month.  Once the reduction is underway, then they will look to sell MBS to further reduce it's Balance Sheet.  This will add more pressure to Mortgage Rates, which we'll … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/5/22 - 04/05/22 11:01 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped up to 58.3 in March.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion.  The Big Market Mover today, which is being received negatively by both Markets, are comments by Fed Vice Chair Brainard.  Lael Brainard is typically a dove, but her comments were quite hawkish; and discussed the reduction of the Balance Sheet.  These comments are ahead of tomorrow's release of the FOMC Minutes, so it may be a forewarning of what Investors may find in the Minutes.  MBS is currently Down 78bps, so Mortgage Rates have been adversely affected.  The good news is the Yields spiked … (2 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/4/22 - 04/04/22 11:16 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The only data on the Economic Calendar is the Factory Orders for February, which contracted by 0.5%.  However, we'll receive the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, which can be a Market Mover.  Stocks are Up today on filings that Elon Musk took in a large share of Twitter.  Meanwhile, US and EU Countries plan to implement more sanctions against Russia for it's role in it's invasion of Ukraine.  MBS are moving (more-or-less) in a sideways pattern today, as it's Down 3bps from Friday's close.   The lack of movement has Mortgage Rates pretty much in Unchanged level from Friday's close.  Yields … (2 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 4/1/22 - 04/01/22 09:34 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today is the Big Jobs data by the  Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  We'll start with the Average Workweek Hours, which shrunk by 0.1 to 34.6 hrs/week.  The Non Farm Payrolls for March came in a bit shy of it's forecast at 431k; however, it's still considered a strong number.  Also, It's February number was revised higher from 678k to 750k.  The Unemployment Rate dropped a little more than expected to 3.6%, which is also a strong number.  However, the Average Earnings for March is a double edge sword, as it rose 0.4%.  This is good because people are getting … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/31/22 - 03/31/22 11:04 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today is Day 2 of March Jobs Data, which the Initial Jobless Claims rose back above 200k, at 202k last week.  Also, The Challenger Layoffs (Job Layoff Announcements) jumped up by approximately 6 million.  Something we'll need to watch, as that's a pretty big spike with job losses.  Tomorrow will be the Jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  Personal Income rose by 0.5% in February, which Consumer Spending rose only 0.2%.  Probably our biggest impactful data this week is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE).  The Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, which gives it … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/30/22 - 03/30/22 10:42 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ADP report came out better than expected for March, which reported 455k new jobs in the Private Sector; and it's February data was revised higher, from 475k to 486k.  However, the final revision for the Q4 GDP came in a bit lower, at 6.9%, which we can expect it to come down a bit, as it was propped up due to high demand in Housing, which is expected to slow a bit with higher rates.  Also, much of it was built up from COVID Lockdowns (like a dam bursting).  Yesterday, it was reported that Russia will "fundamentally" move it's … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/29/22 - 03/29/22 11:06 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Case Shiller Home Price Index (HPI), which measures the 20 largest Markets rose by 1.8% in January to 19.1% YoY.  Likewise, the FHFA HPI rose by 1.6% and it' YoY rose to 18.2%.  Funny thing, Consumer Confidence data for February was reduced from it's initial number of 110.5 to 105.7 -a pretty steep decline.  For March, it came in at 107.2; so, before revision, then it would have dropped; however, because of the revision, then it rose.  Later, we could have some impact with the MBS/Yields Markets with the 7 year Treasuries Auction.  The 5 year did fairly well … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/28/22 - 03/28/22 12:33 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There is nothing on the economic calendar today; however, there will be some important data being released this week, which include the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation (PCE); Jobs data; GDP for Q4; and Home Price Indices.  There is not much new news of late, as we still have conflict in Ukraine with Russia and China continued with more Lockdowns due to Covid.  Oil Prices have settled down a little bit with China's lockdowns, as there will be less consumption/demand in the short-term.  Stocks are a bit mixed today, as NASDAQ is still dealing with high Yields (currently at 2.48%), … (1 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/25/22 - 03/25/22 11:33 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Pending Home Sales dropped by 4.1% in February to 104.9k seasonally adjusted units.  Meanwhile, Consumer Sentiment dropped by 0.3 to 59.4 in March, as Consumers watch Fed Hikes, Inflation, Ukraine/Russia Conflict unfold.  Markets are reacting to very hawkish comments from Fed Members this entire week and are pricing for worst case scenario, that they will implement multiple 0.5% rate hikes this year (in lieu of the normal 0.25% increments).  Also, there was a report out that Russia may be satisfied with less than full control of Ukraine, which has the Markets shifting investment dollars from Treasuries and Bonds back to … (0 comments)

interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/24/22 - 03/24/22 12:47 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims dropped below the 200k for the first time since the beginning of the Pandemic.  It came in at 187k; and the Continuing Claims declined, as well.  However, the Durable Goods Orders dropped by 2.2% in February.  Markit PMI released both their Services and Manufacturing data for March, which anything above 50 is considered expansion.  The Services went up to 58.9, while the Manufacturing rose to 58.5.  Both sectors had forecasts of regression for March, but they had improved.  There were a few different Fed Speakers today, which all pretty much feel there will be 7 rate … (1 comments)

 
Mike Bjork (Evolve Bank & Trust)

Mike Bjork

Redondo Beach, CA

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Evolve Bank & Trust

Address: 28924 S Western Ave Ste 100, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA, 90275

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