interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/23/22
- 03/23/22 10:32 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: New Home Sales dropped 2.0% in February to 772k seasonally adjusted units due to spike in Mortgage Rates, as affordability continues to decline. The hawkish talk from other Fed Members continues, as the Markets adjust to the Fed's policy changes, which include ramping up on rate hikes (may include higher than 0.25% hike increments) and balance sheet reduction. As Yields have spiked to nearly 2.40%, then Investors have moved over some investment dollars to Bonds and Treasuries. MBS has had a seesaw type of morning, as Investors bought early on, only to sell off, and appear to be buying again. … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/18/22
- 03/18/22 10:42 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Home Sales dropped 7.2% in February to 6.02 million seasonally adjusted units. But, Leading Indicator Index rebounded in February to 0.3%, after a bit of a contraction (-0.5%) in January. Investors continue to monitor the Ukraine/Russia situation, as it's being reported that Russia was bombing Lviv, which is a city near the Poland border. Meanwhile, a few Fed Members, Waller and Bullard, both indicated that they'd like to see at least a 0.5% rate hike at one of the meetings, and possibly multiple times this year. Waller would like to see the Fed Funds Rates at or above 2-2.25% … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/17/22
- 03/17/22 10:42 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts rose by 6.8% in February to 1.769 million seasonally adjusted units; however, Building Permits (future Housing Starts) dropped 1.9% to 1.859 million. This matches the drop in Home Builder Confidence, which is mostly attributed to the higher Mortgage Rates and lower Affordability. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Index surpassed forecasts in March to 27.4. This index measures manufacturing in the Philadelphia region. This improvement is a vastly different view than what we saw from the NY region earlier this week which contracted. The Initial Jobless Claims dropped down to 214k last week; and Continued Claims dropped too. Lastly, the … (1 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/16/22
- 03/16/22 11:21 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales only rose 0.3% in February after a hot January, which rose (revised higher) 4.9%. The NAHB Home Builders Index declined again in March to 79. This index measures the confidence with Home Builders. This is mostly attributed to higher Mortgage Rates and lower Affordability. Next up, is the Fed's Announcement at 11:15 am PST, which they're expecting to announce a rate hike. Investors will review it's change in policy, especially with new events (Ukraine/Russia and lockdowns in China). They will also look toward the Dot Plot for estimates on future rate hikes, which many are projecting between 5-7 … (1 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/15/22
- 03/15/22 11:42 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The headline news for Producers Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation for Wholesalers, rose 0.8% in February; whereas, it's Core PPI (excludes food and energy) rose only 0.2%. The Core PPI dropped to 8.4% YoY from a higher revision to 8.5% in January. Normally, this data wouldn't have as much impact with the Markets, but the Markets are inflation focus, so any inflationary data will be heavily impactful. Lastly, the Empire State Index contracted by 11.8% in March. This index measures the manufacturing in the NY region. Today is the start of the 2 day FOMC, whom will announce their … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/14/22
- 03/14/22 11:55 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today; however, there will be some important data being reported this week. Tomorrow, we'll receive inflationary data on the wholesale sector with the PPI report. Typically, this report isn't high impact, but because of our current inflation focus, it will have a much greater impact. Also, tomorrow will be the start of the 2 day FOMC, which it's expected that the Fed will announce they'll hike the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% on Wednesday. The Markets are reacting to a rumor of some optimism that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has Stocks … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/11/22
- 03/11/22 11:17 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment dropped a little lower than expectations for March to 59.7, as Consumers are faced with the Russia/Ukraine conflict and rapidly rising inflation and gas prices. There were reports out there that Putin commented to Belarussian counter-parts that there have been progress made in talks with Ukraine. The Markets reacted more favorably, as stocks have moved in Mixed Territory. Also, the Fed announced the completion of their tapering today. MBS moved lower after the announcements, as Lenders may be repricing for the worse. Mortgage Rates are in the range of Unchanged to maybe a little worse today. Yields have … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/10/22
- 03/10/22 11:12 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today is the week's biggest report, which is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures Consumer Inflation. The Headline number rose 0.8% in February and it's YoY rose to 7.9%; but if you excluded the Food and Energy, which is the Core CPI, the it rose 0.5% in February and it's YoY rose to 6.4%. Of course, these are 40 year highs! Meanwhile, the Initial Jobless Claims rose to 227k last week with more people Continuing Claims. The Markets started in the Red early this morning after the ECB announcement. The ECB announced that they (like our Fed did earlier) … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/9/22
- 03/09/22 09:51 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today; however, later this morning, the 10 year Treasury Auction will take place. This could potentially move the Markets a bit, depending upon it's success, or lack thereof. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russian Ministers meet in Turkey to discuss possible detente and Market is reacting positively to the news. Also, many US companies are announcing their move from Russia, as the war continues. Unfortunately, for MBS, the investment dollars are leaving and flowing back to equities again today. MBS started the morning much lower, but has subsided a bit to being Down 23bsp. So … (1 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/8/22
- 03/08/22 10:52 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Wholesale Inventories rose 0.8% in January, which came in as expected. Later this morning, there will be a 3 year Treasury Auction, but it shouldn't impact the Markets much, but tomorrow's 10 year will have more of an impact. Stocks are Up, especially the Energy sector, as they buy on the dip and as the energy prices rise, so are their profits. Similarly, when the interest rates begin to rise, then the financial sector will profit more too. The US officially decided to ban energy products from Russia to add more pressure on them. Meanwhile, this is sending shock waves … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/7/22
- 03/07/22 11:40 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, there are no economic data to report; and this week will be very light, with the exception of Thursday, which will contain inflation data (CPI). Markets are taking it's queue from the 12th day of Ukraine/Russia war, as oil reaches $130/barrel and US, along with it's allies, consider banning Russian energy products. Their allies will be more adversely affected, if they act on this consideration, as it makes up 45% of their energy imports; and the US is probably less than 3%. Investors are worrying about Stagflation, as signals appear. Today, the flight to safety moved to gold, as … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/4/22
- 03/04/22 10:52 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we receive the Jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is the data we've been waiting on. We'll start with the Average Work Week for February, which rose by 0.1 hrs to 34.7 hrs. Average Earnings remained Unchanged for February, which is good news for our inflation data. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 4.0% in January to 3.8% in February. Lastly, there were 678k new jobs created in February. Even though, we got great economic data, Stocks are Down on the latest from Ukraine, as it was being reported that a large Nuclear reactor was on … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/3/22
- 03/03/22 10:37 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We're seeing improvement with Jobs, as Challenger Layoffs dropped nearly 5 million in February to 15.245. These are announced layoffs. The second Jobs data for this week is the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which dropped down to 215k for last week. However, we didn't see much movement on Continued Claims. They were mostly Unchanged. Unfortunately, Labor Costs were revised much higher from it's initial reading of 0.3% for the Q4, and came in at it's final number of 0.9%. This is important because it is inflationary. Higher Labor Costs lead to higher costs to products and services; thus, passing that … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/2/22
- 03/02/22 10:40 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP released their data today, which is the first jobs data for this week. The January data had a HUGE revision upwards, after last month disrupting the Market, as it was revised from being Down 301k to being Up 509k. 800k MISS!!!! Can't understand that big of a miss! Any ways, February reported better than expected at 475k. Today is the start of Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress, which he is speaking with the House today and the Senate tomorrow. One good nugget that came away is he addressed the first rate hike to be announced on March … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 3/1/22
- 03/01/22 09:52 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.6 in February. Anything above 50 is considered expansion/growing. Construction Spending had a big revision for it's December data, which was revised from 0.2% to 0.8%; and it's January's data came in up 1.3%. This latter data doesn't hold much impact with the Markets, however. Meanwhile, Investors continue to be concerned over the impact with the Ukraine/Russia war, as they continue with the "flight to safety", as Stocks drop and investment dollars flow over to Bonds/Treasuries. MBS is currently Up about 45bps, after it closed Up 63bps yesterday. This means that over a 2 … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 2/28/22
- 02/28/22 10:49 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Chicago PMI dramatically dropped from 65.2 in January to 56.3 in February. This index measures the business and manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Anything above 50 is considered expansion. The Big tickets for the Economic Calendar this week will be February's Jobs data. The biggest impact for the Markets today continues with the Ukraine/Russia narrative. It is reported that Russia put their nuclear defense into high alert. Meanwhile, the US Treasury will not trade US dollars with Russian Central Bank and Russian Banks were removed from SWIFT. All these actions, along with more, are negatively affecting the Stock … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 2/25/22
- 02/25/22 11:09 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The big data point for this week was released today, which is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE). This carries a lot of weight, as it is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation. The Headline Number rose 0.6% in January, while it's YoY rose to 6.1%. It's Core PCE (excludes food & energy), which is really what the Fed watches, had increased by 0.5% and it's YoY increased to 5.2%. Personal Income remained Unchanged in January; but not Consumer Spending, which went up 1.5%. Durable Goods rose 1.6% in January; but if you exclude Transportation, then it rose only by 0.7%. … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 2/24/22
- 02/24/22 10:11 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 232k last week with Continuing Claims decreasing too. The second look at the Q4 GDP increased to 7.0% (from 6.9%), as we'll receive the final reading next month. New Home Sales dropped 4.5% to 801k seasonally adjusted annualized units fro the month of January. However, December's data was revised higher, from 811k to 839k seasonally adjusted annualized units. Later today, we'll get the results for the 7 year Note Auction, which could have some impact on the Markets. This whole week has been based on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which had escalated further; and it … (2 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 2/23/22
- 02/23/22 10:49 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We don't have anything to report on the Economic Calendar today; however, there is a 5 year Treasury Note Auction at 10am PST, which may have some impact with the Market today. The main culprit for impacting both the Stock Market and MBS Market adversely today (similar to yesterday) is the concerns of further escalation by Russia with Ukraine. MBS closed Down 38bps yesterday, which led Lenders to reprice for the worse. Today, MBS opened lower, but not enough to really change pricing for Mortgage Rates (Unchanged). However, over the past few minutes, the Market seems to be showing some … (0 comments)
|
interest rates: Daily Market Report 2/22/22
- 02/22/22 10:22 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) rose 1.5% in December; and it's YoY increased to 18.6%. This index measures home appreciation in the 20 Largest Markets in the US. However, the FHFA Home Price Index rose 1.2% in December, while it's YoY remained Unchanged at 17.6%. This index measures the homes with conforming loans attached to them. IHS Markit PMI released both their Manufacturing and Services data for February. Both sectors increased, as January was badly affected by Omicron. The Manufacturing rose from 55.5 in January to 57.5 in February. The Services rose from 51.2 in January to 56.7 … (0 comments)
|
|
|
|
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: New Home Sales dropped 2.0% in February to 772k seasonally adjusted units due to spike in Mortgage Rates, as affordability continues to decline. The hawkish talk from other Fed Members continues, as the Markets adjust to the Fed's policy changes, which include ramping up on rate hikes (may include higher than 0.25% hike increments) and balance sheet reduction. As Yields have spiked to nearly 2.40%, then Investors have moved over some investment dollars to Bonds and Treasuries. MBS has had a seesaw type of morning, as Investors bought early on, only to sell off, and appear to be buying again. … (0 comments)
;)
;)
;)
