mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/26/19 - 06/26/19 08:46 AM Durable Goods Orders are still dragging, as Boeing's (737 Max) woes continue to bring down those numbers. April's numbers were revised lower, as the revision led from -2.1% to -2.8%; and it declined 1.3% in May. However, if you remove Transportation, then it improved from 0.0% in April to 0.3% in May. Stocks are in a good mood today, as comments by Steven Mnuchin on CNBC were the US and China Negotiations are 90% completed. However, that hasn't changed prior to the stall in the negotiations, as we were 90% completed at that point. President Trump and Jinping plan to … (1 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/25/19 - 06/25/19 08:03 AM A few items on the Economic Calendar to report this morning. First up is the Case Shiller HPI for April. Home Prices dropped from 3.7% YoY to 3.5% YoY. Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 131.3 in May to 121.5 in June. Much bigger than our forecast of 130.4. Lastly, New Home Sales have slowed to it's lowest level since 2012. It dropped from 679k annualized units in April to 626k in May. Stocks are in the Red this morning ahead of several Fed Memebers Speaking Engagements, but notably one stands out, whom is Fed Chair Jerome Powell. MBS is right … (1 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/24/19 - 06/24/19 09:06 AM The Economic Calendar is light today, so the Geo-Political will have the most affect on the Markets today. Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as NASDAQ is currently in the Red. Investors are looking ahead to the G20 Summit in Japan, which begins Friday, when it is expected that President Trump and Jinping will speak and hopefully work thru the detente in the Trade Negotiations. Also, Investors are watching the US and Iran's tensions mount, as the US looks to increase sanctions on Iran. Currently, the MBS is Up 11bps. Not quite enough to improve Mortgage Rates from their disappointing end … (2 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/21/19 - 06/21/19 09:11 AM Both Manufacturing and Services Sectors are shrinking according to the Markit Flash PMI Indices. The Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.5 in May to 50.1 in June. The Markit Flash Services PMI dropped from 50.9 in May to 50.7 in June. Anything above 50 in these indices indicates expansion, so they're approaching a contraction level, if they continue this path. However, we did get good news from the Housing Sector, which Existing Home Sales jumped Up from 5.19 million annualized units to 5.34 million in May. This was a 2.5% Month-over-Month Increase; however, April was revised higer, so without … (1 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/20/19 - 06/20/19 08:46 AM Initial Jobless Claims dropped from the previous week of 222k to 216k for this week's data. This week's data is important becuase it is being used by the Bureau of Labor Statistic's (BLS) Job Numbers for June, which will be released on July 5th. The lower number may result in a strong Jobs Number. More data indicates that Manufacturing is slowing, as the Philly Fed Index (manufacturing in the Philadelphia region) has dropped from 16.6 to 0.3 in June (bordering on contraction). Leading Indicators don't show any improvement in May (0.0%). Stocks are following it's rally from yesterday, after the … (0 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/19/19 - 06/19/19 08:47 AM Today is Fed Day! The Fed wraps up it's 2 day meeting and will provide their decision around 11am PST today, so expect some Market Volatility. All eyes are on the Fed today, as they await their decision. The sentiment is the Fed will set the stage for a July Rate Cut and remove the word "patient" from it's language. Investors will review the wording carefully and the Dot Plot, so they can see if the Fed may be thinking more than 1 Rate Cut this year. Nothing else on the Economic Calendar today. Stocks are currently trading in Mixed … (1 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/18/19 - 06/18/19 08:30 AM Housing Starts came in at 1.27 million annualized units for May compared to a revised (higher) 1.29 million annualized units in April. The revision shows it dropped; but without the revision, it would have rose. Building Permits remained unchanged from April to May at 1.29 million annualized units. The Fed begins their 2 day meeting today, which it is expected to set up next month's meeting for a possible rate cut. Stocks are really taking off (DOW is currently up 400 points), as comments by ECB's Mario Draghi stoke the fire. He reiterated his desire to cut rates further to … (1 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/17/19 - 06/17/19 08:51 AM Manufacturing in the NY region had one of it's worst declines in June, according to the Empire State Index, which went from 17.8 in May to -8.6 in June.  Also, confidence is starting to wane with Home Builders, as the NAHB Home Builder Index, which is a survey to gauge their confidence dropped from 66 to 64; however, any reading above 50 is considered optimism.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as i'ts preparing for the FOMC.  A few Economists are calling for a Rate Cut at this coming meeting, but the odds are around 27% for such an occurence.  … (0 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/14/19 - 06/14/19 08:34 AM There's a lot of data on the Economic Calendar to report today. We'll start with the Retail Sales and Retail Sales without Autos for May, which were both up 0.5%. This was on the heels of a positive revision the previous month for both data points. Industrial Production rose 0.4% in May. Capacity Utilization rose from 77.9% to 78.1% in May. However, Consumer Sentiment dropped from 100 to 97.9 in June. It's final number will be toward the end of the month, so we'll see if the Consumer is feeling less enthused continues for the whole month. Business Inventories rose … (0 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/13/19 - 06/13/19 08:09 AM Initial Jobless Claims rose 3k from the previous week's numbers, going from 219k to 222k. However, the previous week's numbers were revised higher by 1k (218k to 219k). Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning. There was a more positive tone today, as President Trump indicated that there was no timetable on any further Tariffs with China, and a deal could happen. Oil is rising a bit this morning on news that a few tankers were attacked at the Gulf of Oman. Iran is suspected in these attacks, as there are growing tensions between US and Iran. MBS is … (1 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/12/19 - 06/12/19 08:49 AM The Consumer Priced Index rose only 0.1% in May, which it's YoY dropped from 2.0% to 1.8%. The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose only 0.1%. It's YoY dropped from 2.1% to 2.0%. Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, despite the lower Consumer Inflation data, as Investors continue to watch the drama between the US and China' Trade Talks. President Trump recently tweeted that he's holding up the talks, and his sentiment is that the deal should be great for both US and China, otherwise, there's no sense in making an agreement. This is souring the Markets a … (0 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/11/19 - 06/11/19 08:17 AM NFIB Small Business, which measures the confidence among Small Businesses, rose from 103.5 in April to 105.0 in May. Producer Priced Index, which measures inflation on the Wholesale sector, rose 0.1% in May. However, it's YoY dropped from 2.2% to 1.8%, further illustrating that inflation is still fairly tame. Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as China plans a new Stimulus project aimed to re-build it's infracture within it's local municipalities and is issuing Bonds for this project. MBS are Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing. Yields are now at 2.15%.
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mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/10/19 - 06/10/19 08:10 AM Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today. Stocks are Up this morning after it was announced over the weekend that the US and Mexico reached an agreement over the migration issue, so the US will not impose sanctions. Steven Mnuchin and PBC's Yi Gang had reportedly very candid and constructive talks while at the G20 meeting. Reports came out of China that their Exports rose slightly and their imports dropped sharply. MBS is Down 19bps, so Mortgage Rates rose slightly. Yields rose to 2.14%.
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mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/7/19 - 06/07/19 08:31 AM Nonfarm Payroll really disappointed in May, as only 75k new jobs were created. Also, there were revisions from the previous 2 months, which were lowered by 75k combined. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%. Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% in May. Wholesale Inventories rose 0.8% in April. Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as today's Bad News (in terms of disappointing Job Numbers) is feeling like Good News because the sentiment is the Fed will cut Interest Rates sooner than later (possibly this summer). There's been some progress made on the talks with Mexico to help curb the influx of people … (1 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/6/19 - 06/06/19 08:09 AM Initial Jobless Claims rose this week from 215k from previous week to 218k. These are still low numbers, which is why Investors shrugged off the ADP number yesterday. They're anticipating approximately 190k new jobs for tomorrow's BLS' report. Q1 Productivity was revised a bit lower, from 3.6% to 3.4%. Unit Labor Costs (Q1) was revised further declines from -0.9% to -1.6%. This can help keep inflation low. Stocks have shifted into Negative Territory this morning, as the Market Sentiment became more risk aversed due to the Dovish Speak with Central Speakers and US' Trade Talks with Mexico and China. The … (0 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/5/19 - 06/05/19 08:30 AM ADP Employment number really missed it's mark in May. It went from 271k new private jobs in April to only creating 27k in May. This didn't weigh on the Market too much, as the ADP's number doesn't always translate to the same as the BLS'. Most think the BLS' numbers on Friday will be around 190k due to the low Jobless Claims during May. The Service Industry is still humming along. We have 2 reports on this sector. First is the Markit Services PMI, which remained Unchanged at 50.9 in May; the other is ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which rose from … (1 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/4/19 - 06/04/19 08:18 AM Factory Orders dropped 0.8% in April. Starting tomorrow, we'll look at the Job Numbers for May, which begin with the ADP numbers, then Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday and BLS' Unemployment Rate and Jobs data. Stocks are rebounding after yesterday's Negative Close. Investors are watching the 4 biggest Tech Companies stave off tougher regulations, as the US Gov't aims to go after them with Anti Trust suits. Some optimism developed, as reports out of China seem to indicate that they'd like to work out the differences by resuming talks. Fed Members Bullard and Powell touch on the possibility of the … (2 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 6/3/19 - 06/03/19 08:43 AM Overall Manufacturing dipped in May. The Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.6 to 50.5; whereas, ISM Manufacturing Index dropped from 52.8% to 52.1%. These are the lowest levels we've seen in approximately the past 20 months. Construction Spending was revised from -0.9% to -1.7% in March; and April's numbers were almost identical to the revised numbers in March, so it was flat. Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory. NASDAQ is down because of the Anti Trust concerns with Google. President Trump landed in London today. Tariffs may go up again for Mexico within the next week to two, if there's … (1 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 5/31/19 - 05/31/19 08:26 AM A lot of Economic data to go over this morning from the Calendar. We'll start off with Personal Income, which rose 0.5% in April; whereas Consumer Spending rose only 0.3% in April. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose 0.3% in April, which it's YoY rose from 1.4% to 1.5%. The Core PCE (also, known as Core Inflation) rose 0.2% in April, and rose from 1.5% to 1.6% YoY. The Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation. It removes variables, food and energy, from the PCE, and provides a controlled number. Manufacturing in Chicago region improved, as the Chicago PMI … (2 comments)

mortgages: Daily Market Report 5/30/19 - 05/30/19 08:10 AM Initial Jobless Claims rose from 212k (this was revised slightly higher from 211k) to 215k (same as forecast). Still very low amount of people filing for Unemployment. Q1 GDP was revised slightly downward, from 3.2% to 3.1%. Many economists were forecasting it to drop to 3.0%. So far, it's been a great start to 2019. We've had very poor Q1 in the past, as bad weather contributed to the past low numbers. Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as the rhetoric between the US and China's trade negotiations seemed to have subsided a bit for a day. Investors were also … (1 comments)

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