oscar busch: Market Matters, February 24, 2018 Edition
- 02/24/18 12:58 PM
Existing Home Sales for January fell 3.2% month over month, and have now dropped 4.8% year over year. The market call was for a decline of 3.6%, so the result was just slightly better than expectations. Inventory, now sitting at a 19-year low, remains the real reason for the decline. While existing sales have been choppy, they are certainly on an uptrend, and that keeps sentiment on the positive side looking ahead. The MBA mortgage application volume for the week ending 2/16 showed purchase business fell 6%, with refis down 7%. The composite index was off 6.6%. With interest rates on the … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, February 10, 2018 Edition
- 02/10/18 12:52 PM
The government shut down Thursday night at midnight, but reopened just a few hours later as the bill passed the House with the President signing around 7:40am CST Friday morning. Looking at the details of the bill, “…the two-year deal that raises spending levels $300 billion above the caps implemented in both the 2011 Budget Control Act and the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015. Defense spending will now increase $165B ($80B in 2018, $85B in 2019) and an additional $131B will go to nondefense spending ($63B in 2018, and $68B in 2019).” It also contains spending authority through March 23rd when … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, February 3, 2018 Edition
- 02/03/18 10:02 AM
Personal Income and Spending were both up .4%. Wages and salaries also are showing solid gains of .5%. However, giving a hint of trouble ahead is that the savings rate dropped .1% to a 13-year low. We have also noticed an acceleration of credit in both credit cards and car loans over the past year, along with rising delinquencies. Not a healthy situation for consumers to follow. Case-Shiller’s Home Price Index rose .7% in November, matching the gains seen in October. Home prices are now up 6.2% year-on-year. Atlanta and Dallas, which have traditionally been affordable markets, are now posting double digit … (1 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, January 27, 2018 Edition
- 01/27/18 11:41 AM
Undeterred by higher interest rates, homebuyers led the MBA’s weekly applications for the week ending 1/19 higher by 6.0%. Refis rose 1.0% to put the composite index at plus 4.5%. Good start to the new year. Speaking of home sales, Existing Home Sales fell 3.6% in December following a 5.6% gain in November. Inventories across the country dropped to 3.4 months, the main culprit behind slowing sales in December. Still, at 5.75 million units, the market remains very strong. FHFA Home Price Index rose .4% in November and plus 6.5% year-on-year. The West North Central posted the highest gains at .9% … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, January 20, 2018 Edition
- 01/20/18 08:28 AM
The January NAHB-Wells Fargo housing market index dipped two points to a reading of 72 from 74 in December. The data was right on with market expectations, as the consensus forecast was for a modest fall to 72. The NAHB index is at an elevated level that reflects some more significant optimism among homebuilders—rebuilding activity continues in disaster-affected areas, the housing market continues to suffer from problems with low supply, and the overall economy has some good momentum. Housing Starts for December fell by 8.2% to a 1.192mln unit rate from an upwardly revised 1.299mln unit rate back in November. The level … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, January 6, 2018 Edition
- 01/06/18 09:10 PM
Construction Spending for November rose .8% to an all-time high of 1.257 trillion following a downwardly revised October print of plus .9%. Market expectations were for a call of plus .6%. Spending on residential construction rose 1.0% with single family homes up 1.9%. Year on year shows the strength in single family construction which is up 8.9% while multifamily units decline 1.7%. Home Improvements (Reno) jumped 9.8% year on year.
Minutes of the December 12th - 13th meeting revealed that the committee discussed how fiscal stimulus could boost output too much and require a steeper path of rate hikes. Risks include the … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, December 9, 2017
- 12/09/17 09:50 AM
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell 2.7 points in November, yet remains well above 50 (expansion) at 57.4. Lingering effects from the hurricanes seem to have been the culprit behind the drop as all other sub-indexes remained in expansion mode. The Trade Balance (deficit) widened to -$48.7 billion. It is the highest trade shortfall in 9 months with the keys being imports up 1.8% (rising oil prices), while exports were flat. MBA reported this week that the mortgage origination composite index rose 4.7% with purchases up 2.0%, and refi’s up .9%. Excellent numbers for this time of the year. Productivity jumped 3% while Unit Labor Costs … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, November 25, 2017 Edition
- 11/25/17 08:11 AM
Mortgage applications for the previous week were mostly flat, up.1% on some stronger purchase activity (+5.3%) and weaker refi activity (-4.8%). Existing Home Sales rose 2% in October, a nice rebound from the hurricane affected .7% rise in September. Sales in Houston and Jacksonville recovered nicely, yet South Florida continues to show weak results. Existing Home Sales also showed gains in the Northeast, Midwest, and the West. Durable Goods Orders in October fell by 1.2%, while orders ex-transportation actually rose .4%. Capital goods orders nondefense ex-aircraft saw a drop of .5%. The headline is weaker than markets had expected, however it is dominated … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, November 4, 2017
- 11/04/17 07:13 AM
The MBA released mortgage origination volume for the week ending 10/27, showing the overall composite down 2.6% with purchases off 1% and refi’s down 5%. Despite the weekly declines, purchase business remained a solid 10% above the year-ago level. The FOMC concluded their two-day meeting on Wednesday, voting unanimously to leave their target overnight rate unchanged at 1.0-1.25%. The FOMC did change a large group of words in the October Statement, however, the overall message remains mostly the same. The majority of changes were related to the hurricanes and their effect on the recent economic data. The biggest change was in the … (3 comments)
oscar busch: Credit Tip - Inquires Part 2
- 10/31/17 09:54 AM
Inquires Part 2: The difference between a "hard pull" and a "soft pull" As we discussed in our last tip, having your credit pulled can be quite detrimental to your FICO score. However, what also comes into play are "Hard" Inquiries and "Soft" Inquiries. Hard inquiries occur only when "you are applying for more debt." Soft Inquires, on the other hand, are all other inquiries. Can you guess where the largest quantity of soft inquiries comes from? Surprisingly, they come from your current creditors performing routine checkups. You may not know this because it’s in the minute writing you didn’t read … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Credit Tip - Inquires Part 1
- 10/31/17 09:48 AM
Inquires Part 1: You all know this person, and if you don’t it’s probably because it’s you. The person who opens up their wallet or purse, only to receive an explosion of store credit cards like an erupting volcano. This is all due to that delightful store clerk asking them at every store if they want that tremendous 20% off today’s purchases by applying for their store card. Other than having too many revolving accounts, these types of individuals are also being crippled with "too many inquiries" (as indicated on their credit report) Here is the reality. The impact from applying for … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, October 28, 2017 Edition
- 10/28/17 12:16 PM
The MBA Mortgage Applications Index showed an overall slowdown of -4.6% for the previous week. Purchases slid by -6.%, while refinances fell by -3.% on the heels off interest rates trending higher. September Durable Goods orders rose by 2.2% on the headline number, coming in stronger than market expectations of a 1% increase. This 2.2% rise on the headline is strongly mostly attributed to the 31.5% rise of nondefense aircraft in the form of Boeing orders. Excluding all transportation items, we see a rise in orders of .7%. As for business investment, capital goods orders nondefense ex-aircraft rose by 1.3% versus the … (1 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, October 21, 2017 Edition
- 10/21/17 10:10 AM
The Empire State (NY) Manufacturing Index jumped nearly 6 points to 30.2. The exceptionally strong activity matched the best showing since September 2014 and prior to that, October 2009. Shipments were the standout at 27.5, a high not seen since 2009. Employment was also up 5 points for its best showing since March 2015. New Orders were the only drag on the index, falling 7 points from the September results. The NAHB (Housing Index) jumped 4 points to 68 as optimism among homebuilders bounced back in October. Future sales led the way with a 5-point increase however traffic remains below breakeven … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, October 14, 2017
- 10/14/17 09:41 AM
MBA mortgage applications for the week of October 6th fell by 2.1%, following a .4% decline in the prior week. While refinance apps dropped by 4.2%, purchase apps only fell modestly, down .1%. Looking at the refi index, this is now the fourth straight week of declines, while the last weekly increase was an 8.9% rise back in the week ended September 8th. If we look at the 10yr during that week, we touched a new intraday low of 2.01%. Looking at the purchase index, it is now 7% higher than a year ago in the same week. To recap Wednesday’s FOMC … (3 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters. This Week in Review
- 10/07/17 04:42 PM
Construction Spending rose a solid .5% in August as spending on residential units rose .2%, following a .4% rise in July. Multi-family spending rose .9% following a 1.9% decline in July. Overall, construction spending only shows a 2.5% year-on-year rise despite a favorable 11.6% jump (year-on-year) with residential construction. At the same time, housing starts and permits have been uneven and point to the risk of slowing in the months ahead. The PMI Manufacturing Report was released up .3 to a print of 53.1. Although manufacturing growth appears to be moderate, we expect to see a pickup in the last quarter of … (0 comments)
oscar busch: How much does your credit score really cost you?
- 06/21/17 04:36 PM
Rates fluctuate. Below you will find example rates pulled off the MYFICO website. Regardless of what rates are, these general rules typically apply. For the most part, when you’re in the low 600 credit score range, you lower your interest rate by a half point for every 20 point increase to your credit score ($75 a month or $27,000 over the life of your loan (for a 250k loan)). Once you’re above a 660, it’s about a quarter point per 20 score points ($37 a month) up to a 700. $250,000 mortgage loan on a 30 year fixed loan 760-850 - 3.477% 700-759 - … (1 comments)
What a wild ride this week has been. New low yields on the 10 year note. Housing Starts fell 5.5% in May, worse than market consensus. Permits were also weak, dipping 4.9%. All components showed declines with single family starts off 3.9% with permits for single family off 1.9%. Part of this is due to a shortage of lots and labor. Jobless Claims fell 8K to 237K with the 4 week moving average now at 243K which were right in line with May. This should produce strength in the June Employment Report. The Philly Fed Business Outlook fell … (1 comments)
oscar busch: Derogatory item is deleted from credit report...
- 06/14/17 09:11 AM
When a collection or another derogatory item is deleted from the credit report how much will the score increase? The answer, go figure, is that it depends. The question that should be asked is what are the factors that it depends on? Answer A derogatory account can weigh as little as 0 points on your credit score! But don’t get too excited because you actually don’t want your derogatory items weighing nothing. On the other side of the scale you could lose up to 175 points with one negative remark and this is much better news...don’t worry I’m not insane, give me a minute … (0 comments)
oscar busch: Market Matters, June 10, 2017 Edition
- 06/10/17 12:05 PM
This Week in Review Friday’s calendar was light with no data releases scheduled. The markets are closing out the week and continuing to digest all of Thursday’s events Stateside and from across the pond. The most significant headlines came from the UK as Prime Minister May saw the Conservative Party lose its majority with a hung parliament. As the UK was roughly 10 days away from talks about Brexit, the results have now increased the possibility that further negotiations will at least stall and possibly fail. In other news, former FBI director Comey testified yesterday and while nothing new really came from … (0 comments)
Nonfarm payrolls rose by only $138,000 in May which was considerably under expectations. April and March were downwardly revised by a net 66,000 as well. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, but only because people dropped out of the labor force, reaching a 16-year low. The June FOMC meeting should be interesting after this news, but we are still expecting for the Fed to hike rates. With this weak news, the 10 year treasury is now trading at 2.16, making mortgage rates attractive. If we close at these levels, these lower rates may stick around for … (0 comments)
Existing Home Sales for January fell 3.2% month over month, and have now dropped 4.8% year over year. The market call was for a decline of 3.6%, so the result was just slightly better than expectations. Inventory, now sitting at a 19-year low, remains the real reason for the decline. While existing sales have been choppy, they are certainly on an uptrend, and that keeps sentiment on the positive side looking ahead.
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