economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 4/29/2019 - 04/28/19 08:06 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 4/29/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
FOMC meeting and announcement this week, but no rate change expected.  Still, watch the language and watch the employment report on Friday too.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 4/29:    Personal Income and Outlays (5:30am).
Tues, 4/30:     Case-Shiller HPI (6am), Chicago PMI (6:45am), Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales (7am). 
Weds, 5/1:     ADP Employment Report (5:15am), PMI Mfg Index (6:45am), Construction Spending (7am) and FOMC Announcement (11am).
Thurs, 5/2:    Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs (5:30am), Factory Orders (7am).  Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
Fri, 5/3:        Employment Situation and Int'l Trade in Goods (5:30am), ISM … (1 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 4/22/2019 - 04/20/19 07:44 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 4/22/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
And you thought Good Friday was last week...
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 4/22:    Existing Home Sales (7am).
Tues, 4/23:     New Home Sales (7am). 2-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 4/24:     5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Thurs, 4/25:    Jobless Claims and Durable Goods (5:30am), 7-Yr Note Auction (10am).  Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
Fri, 4/26:        GDP (5:30am), Consumer Sentiment (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.58%     Market Open
2.56%     One Week Ago
2.44%     One Month Ago
2.98%     One Year Ago
(Need a rate quote for your specific scenario?  Click anywhere on this link.)
 
Hangin' Out at Dino's
If you listen to a "classic rock" … (0 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 4/15/2019 - 04/14/19 09:14 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 4/15/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Fairly light week of reports that should mean no fireworks.  But beware every time you issue such a comment...
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 4/15:    Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am).
Tues, 4/16:     Industrial Production (6:15am), Housing Market Index (7am).
Weds, 4/17:     International Trade (5:30am), Beige Book (11am).
Thurs, 4/18:    Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Bus. Outlook Survey, Retail Sales (5:30am), Business Inventories (7am) and Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
Fri, 4/19:        Housing Starts (5:30am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.56%     Market Open
2.51%     One Week Ago
2.59%     One Month Ago
2.83%     One Year Ago
(Need a rate quote for your … (2 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 3/4/2019 - 03/03/19 02:37 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 3/4/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
A healthy slate of reports this week but I'm not sure any of it will break the 15bps range we've held since early January.  Employment situation on Friday warrants the most attention.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 3/4:     Construction Spending (7am).
Tues, 3/5:     New Home Sales and ISM Non-Mfg Index (7am).
Weds, 3/6:     ADP Employment Report (5:15am), International Trade (5:30am), Beige Book (11am).
Thurs, 3/7:    Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs (5:30am).  Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
Fri, 3/8:        Employment Situation and Housing Starts (5:30am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.74%     Market Open
2.68%     One Week Ago
2.73%     One … (3 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 2/25/2019 - 02/21/19 08:32 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 2/25/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Auctions, GDP and a lot of Jerome Powell talk that could give insight into 2019 interest rate direction.  
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 2/25:     2-Yr Note Auction (8:30am), 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Tues, 2/26:     Case-Shiller HPI (6am), Consumer Confidence and Jerome Powell speech (7am), 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 2/27:     International Trade in Goods and Factory Orders (5:30am), Jerome Powell speech (7am).  Pending Home Sales (7am).
Thurs, 2/28:    GDP and Jobless Claims (5:30am).  Chicago PMI (6:45am).
Fri, 3/1:        Personal Income and Outlays (5:30am), PMI Manufacturing Index (6:45am), ISM Manufacturing Index and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.68%  … (0 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 2/18/2019 - 02/16/19 03:36 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 2/18/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Lots of Fed talk this week but few reports.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 2/18:     President's Day, markets closed.
Tues, 2/19:     Housing Market Index (7am).
Weds, 2/20:     FOMC minutes (11am).
Thurs, 2/21:    Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Philadelphia Fed Bus Outlook Survey (5:30am).  Existing Home Sales  (7am).
Fri, 2/22:        Quiet.
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.67%     Friday's Close
2.66%     One Week Ago
2.79%     One Month Ago
2.88%     One Year Ago
(Need a rate quote for your specific scenario?  Click anywhere on this link.)
 
Hell on Wheels:  New York City's Subway in the 1970's
A fond childhood memory of mine is riding … (1 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 2/11/2019 - 02/09/19 06:20 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 2/11/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Amid a backdrop of econonic slowdown abroad, the US kicks off the week quietly but then things ought to heat up.  And let's not forget the threat of another government shutdown (Nightmare on Elm St. Part II).
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 2/11:     Quiet.
Tues, 2/12:     JOLTS (7am).
Weds, 2/13:     CPI (5:30am). Treasury Budget (11am).
Thurs, 2/14:    Jobless Claims, PPI, Retail Sales (5:30am).  Business Inventories (10am).
Fri, 2/15:        Empire State Mfg Survey and Import/Export Prices (5:30am).  Consumer Sentiment (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.66%     Market Open
2.72%     One Week Ago
2.71%     One Month Ago
2.86%     One Year … (1 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 2/4/2019 - 02/02/19 07:51 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 2/4/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Compared to last week, there should be relatively few fireworks driven by economic reports.  With the backdrop of a Fed perhaps on hold, this week's auctions (3, 10 and 30) could be interesting. 
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 2/4:      Factory Orders (7am).
Tues, 2/5:     ISM Non-Mfg Index (7am), 3-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 2/6:     International Trade, Productivity and Costs (5:30am). 10-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Thurs, 2/7:    Jobless Claims (5:30am).  30-Yr Bond Auction (10am).
Fri, 2/8:        Quiet.
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.72%     Market Open
2.74%     One Week Ago
2.70%     One Month Ago
2.77%     One Year Ago
 
Rachel … (1 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 1/28/2019 - 01/27/19 08:22 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 1/28/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
The shutdown is over and that's great news.  Remarkably the market shrugged it off on Friday though we may bear the brunt of that this week, with both a full slate of important reports, GDP, an FOMC statement and auctions as well.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 1/28:      Dallas Fed Mfg Survey (7:30am), 2-Yr Note Auction (8:30am), 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Tues, 1/29:     International Trade in Goods (5:30am), Consumer Confidence (7am), 7-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 1/30:     ADP Employment (5:15am), GDP (5:30am), FOMC Meeting Announcement (11am).
Thurs, 1/31:    Jobless Claims, Personal Income and Outlays … (2 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 1/21/2019 - 01/21/19 08:10 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 1/21/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
A short week and an ongoing shutdown might test the defenses of the mortgage market...
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 1/14:      Markets Closed.
Tues, 1/15:     Existing Home Sales (7am).
Weds, 1/16:     Quiet.
Thurs, 1/17:    Jobless Claims (5:30am), PMI Composite Flash (6:45am), Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
Fri, 1/18:        Durable Goods (5:30am) and New Home Sales (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.78%     Friday's Close
2.69%     One Week Ago
2.91%     One Month Ago
2.54%     One Year Ago
 
Battery Townsley
I know, I know. When you tell people you live near San Francisco and ask them to recall the city's history, … (2 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 1/14/2019 - 01/13/19 02:49 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 1/14/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
A good mix of important reports throughout the week and though it does not seem promising at the moment, a resolution to the shutdown brings the potential for the stock market to rally and bonds to sell off.  Be careful.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 1/14:      Quiet.
Tues, 1/15:     PPI and Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am).
Weds, 1/16:     Retail Sales and Import/Export Prices (5:30am), Business Inventories and Housing Market Index (7am), Beige Book (11am).
Thurs, 1/17:    Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Phila Fed Business Outlook Survey (5:30am).
Fri, 1/18:        Industrial Production (6:15am) and Consumer Sentiment … (2 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 12/31/2018 - 12/30/18 08:20 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 12/31/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Another short week, but therefore more potential for volatility and amid a stalemate in Washington.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 12/31:      Dallas Fed Mfg Survey (7:30am).
Tues, 1/1:     Markets Closed.
Weds, 1/2:     PMI Mfg Index (6:45am).
Thurs, 1/3:    ADP Employment (5:15am), Jobless Claims (5:30am), ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending (7am).
Fri, 1/4:        Employment Situation (5:30am) and Jerome Powell Speaks (7:15am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.72%     Market Open
2.77%     One Week Ago
3.05%     One Month Ago
2.48%     One Year Ago
 
Pony Express
We were driving to South Lake Tahoe over the holiday week and at points alongside Route … (3 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 12/24/2018 - 12/21/18 07:21 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 12/24/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
It's a holiday week and we don't know if the President will fire the Fed chairman.  Can't we just all take a vacation?
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 12/24:      2-Yr Note Auction (8:30am).
Tues, 12/25:     Markets Closed.
Weds, 12/26:     Case Shiller HPI (6am), 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Thurs, 12/27:    Jobless Claims (5:30am), New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence (7am), 7-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Fri, 12/28:        Int'l Trade in Goods (5:30am), Chicago PMI (6:45am), Pending Home Sales (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.77%     Market Open
2.86%     One Week Ago
3.05%     One Month Ago
2.48%     One … (2 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 12/17/2018 - 12/16/18 11:25 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 12/17/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
FOMC statement and virtual certainty of another rate hike (.25%).  This will not surprise anyone, but against the backdrop of recent market volatility, the ensuing statement could.  Then, GDP on Friday.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 12/17:      Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am), Housing Market Index (7am).
Tues, 12/18:     Housing Starts (5:30am).
Weds, 12/19:     Existing Home Sales (7am) and FOMC Meeting (11am).
Thurs, 12/20:    Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (5:30am).
Fri, 12/21:        Durable Goods and GDP (5:30am).  Personal Income and Outlays and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.87%     Today's Open 
2.86%    … (2 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 12/10/2018 - 12/09/18 06:55 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 12/10/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Key inflation reports mid-week will help set the direction.  Recent market (stock and bond) volatility has largely played into a narrative that the Fed may reduce number of forthcoming rate increases, but if inflation comes in hot, I expect a lot more turmoil.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 12/10:      JOLTS (7am).
Tues, 12/11:     PPI (5:30am) and 3-Year Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 12/12:     CPI (5:30am) and 10-Year Note Auction (10am).  Treasury Budget (11am).
Thurs, 12/13:    Jobless Claims and Import/Export Prices (5:30am).  Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
Fri, 12/14:        Retail Sales (5:30am) and Industrial Production (6:15am).  Business Inventories (7am).
 
10-Year … (0 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 12/3/2018 - 12/02/18 08:00 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 12/3/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
As expected, the week is opening with an attempt to make sense of how the G20/China trade truce may play out.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 12/3:      PMI Mfg Index (6:45am), ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending (7am).
Tues, 12/4:     Quiet.
Weds, 12/5:     Stock market closed.  ADP Employment (5:15am), Productivity and Costs (5:30am) and ISM Non-Mfg Index (7am).  Beige Book (11am).
Thurs, 12/6:    Jobless Claims and International Trade (5:30am), Factory Orders (7am).
Fri, 12/7:        Employment Situation (5:30am) and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
3.02%     Today's Open 
3.07%     One Week Ago
3.22%     One Month Ago
2.37%     One … (1 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 11/26/2018 - 11/22/18 08:44 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 11/26/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Wednesday's gonna be a doozy, so shake off your holiday weekend hangover.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 11/26:      2-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Tues, 11/27:      Case-Shiller HPI (6am), Consumer Confidence (7am), 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 11/28:     GDP and International Trade in Goods (5:30am), New Home Sales (10am), 7-Yr Note Auction (10am) and  FOMC minutes (11am).
Thurs, 11/29:    Jobless Claims and Personal Income and Outlays (5:30am), Pending Home Sales (7am).
Fri, 11/30:        Chicago PMI (6:45am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
3.07%     Today's Open 
3.07%     One Week Ago
3.08%     One Month Ago
2.32%     One Year Ago
 
The Capuchin Catacombs of … (1 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 11/19/2018 - 11/17/18 08:39 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 11/19/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Wednesday is a real market day but otherwise the week is light, even if the meals will be heavy...
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 11/19:      Housing Market Index (7am).
Tues, 11/20:      Housing Starts (5:30am).
Weds, 11/21:     Jobless Claims and Durable Goods (5:30am), Consumer Sentiment and Existing Home Sales (7am).
Thurs, 11/22:    Thanksgiving.
Fri, 11/23:        PMI Composite Flash (6:45am), Fed Balance Sheet (1:45pm).
 
10-Year Treasury History
3.07%     Today's Open 
3.19%     One Week Ago
3.19%     One Month Ago
2.37%     One Year Ago
 
Yesterday When I Was Young
Even though there should have been no rightful way for … (0 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 11/5/2018 - 11/04/18 07:04 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 11/5/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
I expect the markets to flirt with the reality of higher rates again this week, amid a backdrop of auctions and Tuesday's mid-term elections.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 11/5:      ISM Non-Mfg Index (7am), 3-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Tues, 11/6:      JOLTS (7am), 10-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 11/7:     30-Yr Bond Auction (10am).
Thurs, 11/8:    Jobless Claims (5:30am) and FOMC Meeting Announcement (11am).
Fri, 11/9:        PPI (5:30am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
3.19%     Today's Open
3.09%     One Week Ago
3.23%     One Month Ago
2.32%     One Year Ago
 
Lincoln's Second Inaugural Address
 
Fellow-Countrymen:
 
At this second appearing to take the oath … (0 comments)

economy: Lock Watch for the Week of 10/29/2018 - 10/22/18 10:12 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 10/29/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Big week of reports against a backdrop of a market in serious motion and on the eve of a pivotal election.  Fasten your seatbelts...
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 10/29:       Personal Income and Outlays (5:30am) and Dallas Fed Mfg Survey (7:30am).
Tues, 10/30:      Case-Shiller Home Price Index (6am) and Consumer Confidence (7am).
Weds, 10/31:     ADP Employment (5:15am) and Chicago PMI (6:45am).
Thurs, 11/1:    Productivity Costs and Jobless Claims (5:30am), PMI Mfg Index (6:45am), ISM Mfg Index (7am) and Construction Spending (7am).
Fri, 11/2:        Employment Situation and International Trade (5:30am) and Factory Orders … (6 comments)

 
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