fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 4/29/2019 - 04/28/19 08:06 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 4/29/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
FOMC meeting and announcement this week, but no rate change expected.  Still, watch the language and watch the employment report on Friday too.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 4/29:    Personal Income and Outlays (5:30am).
Tues, 4/30:     Case-Shiller HPI (6am), Chicago PMI (6:45am), Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales (7am). 
Weds, 5/1:     ADP Employment Report (5:15am), PMI Mfg Index (6:45am), Construction Spending (7am) and FOMC Announcement (11am).
Thurs, 5/2:    Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs (5:30am), Factory Orders (7am).  Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
Fri, 5/3:        Employment Situation and Int'l Trade in Goods (5:30am), ISM … (1 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 4/8/2019 - 04/05/19 07:03 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 4/8/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Inflation readings and auctions should backdrop an interesting week.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 4/8:    Factory Orders (7am).
Tues, 4/9:     JOLTS (7am), 3-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 4/10:     CPI (5:30am), 10-Yr Note Auction (10am), FOMC Minutes and Treasury Budget (11am).
Thurs, 4/11:    Jobless Claims and PPI (5:30am), 30-Yr Bond Auction (10am) and Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
Fri, 4/12:        Import and Export Prices (5:30am), Consumer Sentiment (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.51%     Market Open
2.49%     One Week Ago
2.62%     One Month Ago
2.78%     One Year Ago
(Need a rate quote for your specific scenario?  Click anywhere on this link.)
 
Paying … (1 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 3/18/2019 - 03/16/19 07:34 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 3/18/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
All eyes on the Fed this week.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 3/18:     Housing Market Index (7am).
Tues, 3/19:     Factory Orders (7am).
Weds, 3/20:     FOMC Meeting  (11am).
Thurs, 3/21:    Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (5:30am).  Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
Fri, 3/22:        Existing Home Sales (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.60%     Market Open
2.64%     One Week Ago
2.65%     One Month Ago
2.85%     One Year Ago
(Need a rate quote for your specific scenario?  Click anywhere on this link.)
 
W.S. Merwin, 1927 - 2019
 
I had hardly begun to read
I asked how can you ever be sure
that what you … (2 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 2/25/2019 - 02/21/19 08:32 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 2/25/2019
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Auctions, GDP and a lot of Jerome Powell talk that could give insight into 2019 interest rate direction.  
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 2/25:     2-Yr Note Auction (8:30am), 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Tues, 2/26:     Case-Shiller HPI (6am), Consumer Confidence and Jerome Powell speech (7am), 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 2/27:     International Trade in Goods and Factory Orders (5:30am), Jerome Powell speech (7am).  Pending Home Sales (7am).
Thurs, 2/28:    GDP and Jobless Claims (5:30am).  Chicago PMI (6:45am).
Fri, 3/1:        Personal Income and Outlays (5:30am), PMI Manufacturing Index (6:45am), ISM Manufacturing Index and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.68%  … (0 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 12/24/2018 - 12/21/18 07:21 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 12/24/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
It's a holiday week and we don't know if the President will fire the Fed chairman.  Can't we just all take a vacation?
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 12/24:      2-Yr Note Auction (8:30am).
Tues, 12/25:     Markets Closed.
Weds, 12/26:     Case Shiller HPI (6am), 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Thurs, 12/27:    Jobless Claims (5:30am), New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence (7am), 7-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Fri, 12/28:        Int'l Trade in Goods (5:30am), Chicago PMI (6:45am), Pending Home Sales (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.77%     Market Open
2.86%     One Week Ago
3.05%     One Month Ago
2.48%     One … (2 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 11/5/2018 - 11/04/18 07:04 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 11/5/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
I expect the markets to flirt with the reality of higher rates again this week, amid a backdrop of auctions and Tuesday's mid-term elections.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 11/5:      ISM Non-Mfg Index (7am), 3-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Tues, 11/6:      JOLTS (7am), 10-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 11/7:     30-Yr Bond Auction (10am).
Thurs, 11/8:    Jobless Claims (5:30am) and FOMC Meeting Announcement (11am).
Fri, 11/9:        PPI (5:30am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
3.19%     Today's Open
3.09%     One Week Ago
3.23%     One Month Ago
2.32%     One Year Ago
 
Lincoln's Second Inaugural Address
 
Fellow-Countrymen:
 
At this second appearing to take the oath … (0 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 10/15/2018 - 10/07/18 08:06 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 10/15/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
This is getting interesting.  The stock market sell-offs last week will dictate what the mortgage market does this week too, and nobody knows what that is going to be.  Saudi Arabia will be in the mix too, but if all of these elements go the way we expect (and that's never guaranteed), then the bond market could be a benefactor and that would imply lower rates.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 10/15:       Retail Sales and Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am), Business Inventories (7am).
Tues, 10/16:      Industrial Production (6:15am), JOLTS and Housing Market Index (7am).
Weds, … (1 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 10/1/2018 - 09/29/18 08:16 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 10/1/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Lots of FOMC member speeches throughout the week and the jobs report on Friday.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 10/1:       PMI Mfg Index (6:45am), ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending (7am).
Tues, 10/2:      Quiet.
Weds, 10/3:     ADP Employment Report (5:15am), PMI Services Index (6:45am) and ISM Non-Mfg Index (7am).
Thurs, 10/4:    Jobless Claims (5:30am) and Factory Orders (7am).
Fri, 10/5:        Employment Situation and International Trade (5:30am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
3.09%     Today's Open
3.08%     One Week Ago
2.86%     One Month Ago
2.34%     One Year Ago
 
Lost at Sea
I'm not sure how many of you caught the … (3 comments)

fomc: Money for Nothing - 09/26/18 07:52 AM
Money for Nothing
 
As this was written, we were mere hours from a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision wherein "the Fed" would raise short-term rates another .25%, and provide some insight into the trajectory of rates into 2019 and beyond.  Barring something unpredictable on the financial markets, or barring the realization of the permabears' scattershot predictions of impending doom, most economists feel that we are going to continue down a path of higher interest rates, both at the Fed funds level and spilling over to longer-term rates like mortgages.
 
What is the home buyer to do?
 
Well first, we're going to dispel the "don't worry, … (2 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 9/24/2018 - 09/16/18 07:57 AM
Lock Watch for the Week of 9/24/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Big week of data ahead and auctions, including a Fed decision, which will (with 95% certitude) bring us a rate hike.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 9/24:       2-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Tues, 9/25:       Case Shiller Home Price Index (6am), Consumer Confidence (7am) and 5-Yr Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 9/26:     New Home Sales (7am), FOMC Announcement (11am).  
Thurs, 9/27:    Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Intl Trade in Goods and GDP (5:30am), Pending Home Sales (7am), 7-Yr Note Auction (10am).   
Fri, 9/28:        Chicago PMI (6:45am) and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
3.08%     Today's Open
2.99%     One … (2 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 6/11/2018 - 06/10/18 06:12 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 6/11/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
This week could go nuclear, no pun intended.  The week will start with the world making sense of what happened at G7, then figure out what will happen with North Korea, then watch the Fed raise rates, all the while with a backdrop of shifting sands in Europe.
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 6/11:       3-Yr Note Auction (8:30am) and 10-Yr Note Auction (10am). 
Tues, 6/12:       CPI (5:30am) and 30-Yr Bond Auction (10am).   
Weds, 6/13:     PPI (5:30am) and FOMC Meeting Announcement (11am).
Thurs, 6/14:    Jobless Claims, Retail Sales and Import/Export Prices (5:30am).   
Fri, 6/15:        … (5 comments)

fomc: 10% Down Jumbo Mortgage with No PMI - 05/27/18 08:28 PM
10% Down Jumbo Mortgage with No PMI
 
With the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee poised in June of 2018 to increase in the rates that impact home equity lines of credit ("HELOCs"), home buyers who have traditionally used "piggyback" or "80-10-10" solutions to purchase a home with less than a 20% down payment may have second thoughts.  Not about buying the house, per se, but about a HELOC rate that could approach 7% --- with future adjustments possible as well.  When Prime Rate was in the mid-3% range, most 80/10/10 loans had very palatable start rates but after a decade of seeing … (1 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 4/30/2018 - 04/28/18 06:55 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 4/30/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:
Very high.  Really big week with a lot of reports and a Fed announcement (though no change to rates expected).
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 4/30:       Personal Income and Outlays (5:30am), Chicago PMI (6:45am). 
Tues, 5/1:       PMI Mfg Index (6:45am) and ISM Mfg Index (7am).
Weds, 5/2:     ADP Employment (5:15am).  FOMC Meeting Announcement (11am). 
Thurs, 5/3:    International Trade and Jobless Claims (5:30am).  Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg Index (10am). 
Fri, 5/4:        Employment Situation (5:30am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.95%     Today
2.98%     One Week Ago
2.74%     One Month Ago
2.33%     One Year Ago
 
The Cat's in the Cradle
I grew … (3 comments)

fomc: Lock Watch for the Week of 3/19/2018 - 03/18/18 09:16 PM
Lock Watch for the Week of 3/19/2018
 
Volatility-O-Meter:  
Mid-to-high. Fed meeting this week, but universal expectation of .25% rate increase).  Not a whole lot of reports otherwise, but Washington chaos is always possible as well. 
 
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 3/19:       Quiet.
Tues, 3/20:       Quiet.
Weds, 3/21:     Existing home sales (7am) and FOMC Announcement (11am).
Thurs, 3/22:    Jobless Claims (5:30am) and PMI Composite Flash (6:45am).
Fri, 3/23:         Durable Goods (5:30am).
 
10-Year Treasury History
2.87%     Today
2.88%     One Week Ago
2.88%     One Month Ago
2.47%     One Year Ago
 
Aerial Boundaries
Michael Hedges was an acoustic guitarist who, back in the early '80's, released two … (3 comments)

fomc: A Primer on Prime Rate - 08/28/17 08:22 PM
A Primer on Prime Rate
 
When we hear talk of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adjusting interest rates, there is one index in the mortgage environment that we know will be impacted, even when 30-year fixed rate loans may not see any change to their pricing. This rate is known as Prime Rate and it is the index that is used for most home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs.
 
If you have a HELOC on your property then it very likely will use Prime to set its base rate, with the addition or subtraction of a margin. Prime Rate itself currently … (1 comments)

 
Rob Spinosa, SVP of Mortgage Lending, Marin County (Guaranteed Rate, Marin County, CA)

Rob Spinosa

SVP of Mortgage Lending, Marin County

San Anselmo, CA

More about me…

Guaranteed Rate, Marin County, CA

Address: 324 Sir Francis Drake Blvd., San Anselmo, CA, 94960

Office: (415) 367-5959

Mobile: (415) 367-5959

Email Me

REX Homebuyer Participating Lender

80-10-10 Loans

What Happens if My Appraisal Comes in Low?

Can I Get a Cosigner on a Mortgage?



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