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housing prices: Analyzing housing cycles abroad
- 10/19/09 10:01 AM
This study, "Booms and Busts in Housing Markets", from the European Central Bank (July 2009) provides an interesting look at housing cycles abroad. Specifically, it looks at long term trends in 18 countries from 1980-2007. Like most academic papers, it doesn't provide any earth-shattering analysis. But it does provide an interesting framework with which to understanding housing cycles, as well as a whole lot of proof of things that you probably already knew (e.g., interest rate policies affect housing booms).
Here is the most interesting graphic, and here is the full 50 page report.
… (2 comments)
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housing prices: List-to-sale price ratios
- 10/13/09 06:39 AM
One way to gauge the strength of a local real estate market is to look at the variance between the last listing price and the final sale price. Remember the good old days when homes actually sold for MORE than asking price? Ah, memories.
In the graph below, I compare list-to-sale price ratios over the last year for the US (red line), New York metro (yellow), Los Angeles metro (green), Chicago metro (grey) and Boston metro (blue). The metric divides the list price by the sale price so 1.0 would indicate that homes were selling for exactly the asking price and … (6 comments)
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housing prices: What caused the housing bubble? We bought big houses because we thought we'd be rich down the road...
- 07/15/09 10:49 AM
Plenty of ink has been spilled (or in the digital world, I should say "plenty of keystrokes have been typed") explaining the run-up in home values over the last decade. Almost all of those explanations have emphasized the role of irrational buyers, speculators, and easy credit. Now James Kahn, an Economics professor at Yeshiva University, argues something different entirely. He believes that fundamental changes in our economy -- notably productivity changes caused by technology -- created a new sense of optimism about future incomes.
He writes: "This article argues that the current housing crisis stemmed in large measure from a change … (4 comments)
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housing prices: VIDEO: On CNBC discussing "shadow inventory" and negative equity
- 05/06/09 11:09 AM
Here's the Fox Business News clip which talks about negative equity. Unfortunately I can't embed the FBN clip.
And here's CNBC...
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housing prices: My thoughts on the housing bailout plan
- 02/18/09 01:34 PM
Prepping for my CNBC appearance tonight forced me to dig into the housing bailout plan in a way that I might not otherwise have found time to do. I find this stuff really fascinating because it's at this beautiful intersection of several of my favorite disciplines: politics, economics and real estate. I majored in Government as an undergrad at Harvard, and studied Economics there as well, so I enjoy playing armchair economist and political theorist every now and then.
Here are my thoughts on today's announcement. And let me preface this by saying these are MY thoughts on the bailout … (42 comments)
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housing prices: On CNBC discussing Obama's homeowner bailout plan
- 02/18/09 12:32 PM
You can watch the video here.
I was in Boston today, so the backdrop is of a Boston bridge at night. Great view from the studio you might say. But here's the dirty little secret of broadcast television: I was in a room with no windows, in front of a TV screen showing a live shot of that bridge. Ah, technology.
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housing prices: On Fox Business discussing the Wall Street bailout and impact on the housing market
- 09/30/08 05:29 AM
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housing prices: Homeowners are delusional
- 08/06/08 01:23 PM
This won't be new news to any of you listing agents working with frustrated sellers, but most homeowners haven't adjusted their expectations of value yet. Everyone realizes that house values have declined; but no one wants to believe that their home has declined in value. Here's the data from ZillowBlog to prove just how delusional homeowners are when they ask themselves "what is my house worth?":
62% of U.S. Homeowners believe their home’s value has increased or stayed the same in the past year. In reality, 77% of U.S. homes have declined in value over the past 12 months. While … (37 comments)
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housing prices: Marketwatch video about real estate trends
- 04/29/08 01:13 AM
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housing prices: Circles and Smileys and Frownies: explaining housing prices
- 04/10/08 02:20 PM
At Zillow, we crunch a lot of data about housing prices. Every day we “re-Zestimate” about 70 million home values, almost every house in the country. We roll up all that data to create a “Zillow Housing Index” or Zindex, which is the median Zestimate for any geography. We then publish all of this data for the press and for real estate junkies. Sometimes all of the data can be a bit overwhelming. So let me break it down for you. Here’s the note that I drew a few weeks ago while I was on a media tour talking about home … (22 comments)
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housing prices: Morgan Stanley: Look out for a global recession, thanks to declining home prices
- 03/29/08 04:00 PM
In case you're interested in geeking out on economic info, some of Morgan Stanley's top brainiacs hosted an interesting conference call on the global economic climate. The first 10 minutes are the most interesting and relevant to most of us. Basically they explain that the entire global economy is propped up by the US Consumer because even though China and India have 40% of the world's population, they consume very little. Over the last 10 years, the US Consumer has used their house as a piggy bank and has lived high on the hog, which has helped the entire global economy. … (1 comments)
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housing prices: Zillow Report on Housing Prices: 6% decline vs last year, and 16% of recent buyers are upside down on their new homes
- 11/20/07 02:39 PM
Every quarter at Zillow, we churn though a ton of data and put out our quarterly report on home values. We calculate "Zindexes" for all major cities and neighborhoods, as well as the US. From the press release:
SEATTLE, Nov. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- Home values nationwide declined for the fourth consecutive quarter, down 5.7 percent year-over-year -- the largest year-over-year decline in more than a decade, according to Zillow's Q3 2007 Home Value Report (1) released today. This brings the U.S. Zindex® home value indicator (2) to $244,000, down 2.8 percent from the second quarter. The Zindex is the median Zestimate® … (8 comments)
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This study, "Booms and Busts in Housing Markets", from the European Central Bank (July 2009) provides an interesting look at housing cycles abroad. Specifically, it looks at long term trends in 18 countries from 1980-2007. Like most academic papers, it doesn't provide any earth-shattering analysis. But it does provide an interesting framework with which to understanding housing cycles, as well as a whole lot of proof of things that you probably already knew (e.g., interest rate policies affect housing booms).
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