denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 11.06.15
- 11/06/15 12:35 AM
Well the news has arrived and let the games begin... Yes the non farms payroll report showed an increase in jobs and wage growth nearly 90k above expectations. Now, while that is good news and a step in the right direction, do not be fooled. Just to keep pace with normal population growth we need to be adding over 200k jobs /mo. When considering the real unemployment numbers and not just looking at what the feds "count" for this number we would need to be adding appx 400k jobs/mo for a couple years to truly impact the under performing jobs market. I did read … (2 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 09.15.15
- 09/15/15 02:37 AM
Well, as called yesterday and holding true to form, the bonds are taking a slight hit to pricing this morning, ahead of the Fed Chair Yellen's speech tomorrow. All are waiting in anticipation to see if the Fed believes now is the right time to start to increase rates from their all time historic lows. Retail sales were just under expectations but a key component to this is the fact that Empire Manufacturing was below expectations as well as home improvement companies and gas stations sales are under expectations. Are people saving more or are budgets still reflecting employed but underpaid and unable to keep pace with inflation? No one … (6 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 09.08.15
- 09/08/15 01:42 AM
Good morning all. This week looks to be a little light as far as data is concerned so expect most movement to be controlled by the fears or "perceived" insight on direction Fed Chair Yellen may take on raising rates during next weeks speech. FNMA bonds gave back any gains they had from last week before closing on Friday (not unexpected since it was Friday before a holiday weekend, and today have opened up just slightly over Fridays close at +9bps putting the FNMA 3.0 coupon at 100.656 I don't see a whole lot of movement and still see this weeks trading range supported at 100.50 and … (3 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 09.02.15
- 09/02/15 01:25 AM
Well in today's news mortgage applications are way up in both Purchase and Refinance but Refinance is leading the way at +11 vs Purchase at +4% This is not surprising as rates start to fall those sitting on the fence make their move trying to maximize savings and rates are very strong right now versus the last quarter. ADP payroll report came out actually5% below expectations but before you take this meaning anything remember that ADP payrolls are almost never accurate and almost always get overshadowed by the jobs/unemployment report (also not truthful) later this week. I do expect the market … (3 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 08.26.15
- 08/26/15 12:52 AM
Good morning all Today brings us about more of the panic and fear we have adapted recently into this fragile marketplace. With Durable Goods Orders up a little over expectation and Capital shipments slightly above as well the market has opened today with a 28bps loss. Personally, I do not see it sustaining with the global issues, especially China, right now but you never know these days. The underlying fear is we have allowed the "establishment" to govern and control too much of our lives, both from recent past to current day. Today there is less belief and more fear that good choices and right things … (4 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 08.13.14
- 08/13/15 05:18 AM
Not much news today with retail sales coming in right at expectations but keep an eye on unemployment. Both continuing as well as new claims are higher than expected and that false rate of unemployment numbers (not reflective of true unemployed and underemployed) is likely going to be something Fed Chair Yellen has to strongly consider when deciding if now is the right time to raise rates (that they desperately want to do). FNMA 3.0 coupon is off a little again today from yesterdays close and is currently trading at 100.281 Here is today's data... Retail Sales for July posted in line with expectations, … (4 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 08.07.15
- 08/07/15 12:59 AM
Today's news is not a shocker and continues to show weakness in employment. While that, in and of itself, is no guarantee that Fed Chair Yellen will not increase rates this year it does lead down a path of... is this really the right time in this fragile economy? I am glad I don't have to make that decision but if I did I would say NO it is NOT the right time yet as we all know the real numbers behind the unemployment paints a much different picture and Yellen is well aware of this too. To increase rates, just because, or based off of … (6 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 07.31.15
- 07/31/15 01:28 AM
Well in a little surprising twist today the news brought about a nice rally back into bonds and treasuries. The Wages and Salaries increased at its slowest pace and only at 1/3 of what analysts expected. This data is now giving many the thought that the fed "proposed" rate hike for September may have to be postponed as it shows direct signs of what I have been saying JOBS and HOUSING have to be solid to sustain a recovery and this clearly shows that is not the case. Add to that the real unemployment numbers and I feel a rate hike in just over 30 … (3 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 07.28.15
- 07/28/15 01:02 AM
Good morning wise readers for this market update blog. Today has brought us numbers slightly better than expectations and it caused an initial opening bell loss of 25bps (all of yesterdays gains) but that has since been short lived and the market has already retraced 16bps of that loss basically putting us very close to yesterdays close. The real hinge for what direction rates will take seems to be focused on will the feds make an announcement to purposefully start raising rate in September or not. I do not feel it is a strong enough economy yet (my constant gripe about lackluster jobs … (3 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 07.24.15
- 07/24/15 02:57 AM
There is the consistent pattern that followed suit for this entire week and for those of us who watch this and try to predict its direction that is a very nice thing as of late. The market did touch 100 (as I predicted) yesterday and even closed at that level. Today the FNMA 3.0 has ranged between 100.03 to 99.93 and that is where it currently ia sitting. There should be nothing left today driving the rates to change position prior to closing and one of the things that actually helped was the new homes are well short of expectation leading some to … (7 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 07.22.15
- 07/22/15 03:52 AM
Good morning on this happy and gorgeous Wednesday July the 22nd. Still par for the course not much in data to drive the markets this week and today's is behaving correctly with little to no movement. The FNMA 3.0 coupon closed yesterday at 99.75 and after a few very minor ups and downs is currently sitting at that exact same level 99.75. Don't expect much movement this week but I do hope/expect it to hit and close at 100+ Here is today's market data... MBA Mortgage Application nudged up +0.1% last week following a decline of -1.9% in the week prior (+8.3% YoY). Purchases rose +1.0% vs. -7.5% prior, Refinancing … (6 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 07.16.15
- 07/16/15 03:50 AM
Here is today's news for mortgage pricing and rates. Still plenty of uncertainty in the marketplace, especially globally with China and Greece but as things start to format a direction I believe we will see improvement to the US Bonds and Treasuries. Even in Fed Chair Yellen's speech yesterday expressing a desire to finally lift the overnight funds rate from 0 she is most likely going to be very cautious not to upset a very weak and fragile marketplace. I think these combination of factors will lead us to improvements for rates and recovery of recent losses. Also don't buy into the crap about jobless claims and continued claims improving, … (8 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 07.13.15
- 07/13/15 01:52 AM
Today brings us a HUGE loss to bonds as the BAILOUT I called for a month ago fro Greece actually materialized. Of course I am not surprised as our new world order is do what you want and you are NEVER accountable for anything... sad. Aside from the HORRIBLE message it sends to the rest of the world Fed Chair Yellen is making talk about increasing rates being inevitable soon and the combination of those 2 things have triggered an opening bell sell off of nearly 75bps!!!! That is huge for all looking to get loans as the price just became 3/4% of … (6 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 07.07.15
- 07/07/15 06:09 AM
Today brings us some expected and previously called for good news (for long term rates that is) For some time I have been saying we are definitely better today than 5yrs ago but by no means ready to handle rate hikes. Unemployment, manufacturing, EU issues and the list goes on. Well today brought about 2 pieces I expected and we saw some nice gains from that. Greece basically got the wake up call of NO more! Either control your spending to get your budget in line or simply carry one as such and PAY YOUR BILLS. Then the manufacturing numbers hit and showed even a bigger deficit in … (6 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 06.24.15 still Greece(y)
- 06/24/15 04:26 AM
Well today is bringing more news of the volatility going on with Greece and I was also caught off guard by Dick Greenberg's comment looking at the resolution outcome completely opposite of me. Since I give him much respect, I will give that Greek exit and default more weight then I previously did. In the long run I do not think they will default and exit the EU and do think the country will get in line and get the cuts implemented they need to survive. (I hope we here in America do as well) The US is still showing no real … (10 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 06.18.15
- 06/18/15 01:59 AM
Today's numbers showcase yet another round of less than stellar numbers for the economy. The bright spot that is trying to shine in unemployment. The scary thing about that is, are these improved numbers from an actual improvement or are they from summer temporary help and less than qualified jobs? Next in line is continued claims, are these really reducing from the new jobs and are they (as mentioned above) or is it a combination of that along with people being on unemployment so long the benefits expired? These are very real and serious components to support what all other numbers show as … (5 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 06.09.15
- 06/09/15 01:54 AM
Well in another in a long wave of bonds hits today opens up bringing us more of the same with an opening bell loss of -16bps and then at the 30 min mark another 25bps loss putting the Bonds down nearly a 1/2 point for the day, from already heavily sold numbers. If you are not locked you have every right to panic right now, as we have seen over 300bps to price hits in the last 2 weeks and that puts the cost up appx 1/2% in RATE (not price!). These kind of movements are rare and usually do correct, in time, but … (6 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 05.21.15
- 05/21/15 01:54 AM
Well with all the hype regarding the fed speech yesterday and potential for a big movement one direction or the other we got NOTHING! Yep NOTHING! Yellen kept true to form saying the feds are still watching closely as to try to properly time when its not going to kill growth by raising rates and said it would NOT raise them in June but later this year is NOT off the table so... Do you act now? Do you wait and see? With rates GOING to rise at some point and prices in many areas definitely on the rise my questions is "What … (4 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 05.19.15
- 05/19/15 04:06 AM
Hold on and fasten your seat belts people, we may be in for a little turbulence! We have the potential for some real volatility this week, as I mentioned yesterday, and with the Housing starts up much more than anticipated this good news sparked another sell off in the treasuries this morning!?!?! I guess good news from low rate to help spark MUCH needed housing in many areas is now met with higher rates? What am I missing here?? Anyway I don't think it will sustain BUT if Fed Chair Yellen says anything that even hints at a time when the feds are going to increase rates then … (6 comments)
denver mortgage rates: Mortgage Market Snapshot 05.15.15
- 05/15/15 01:50 AM
Well today is bringing about what I have called earlier in the week for... RECOVERY to the massive losses the mortgage rates have taken over the last couple weeks. No its not fully recovered and losses are real but those losses are being replaced with some gains finally and I expect to see that continue. Data does NOT support the massive sell offs that have occurred recently and with the data from Empire Manufacturing in and showing continued weakness on top of weakness in earlier data I simply fail to see continued rally for equities and sell off for bonds. Here is the data … (0 comments)
Life, Lessons, Encouragment and a little market insight to boot, is a blog written by David Shamansky.
I write this as a daily informational and encouragement resource to others in the real estate and mortgage community.
Well the news has arrived and let the games begin...
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