mortgage market: Mortgage Market Weekly 09/26 /09/30/11
- 09/26/11 05:47 AM
Mortgage Market Weekly 09/26 - 09/30/11 Good morning AR members and readers. Today has brought us a fairly expected open with a small +6bps gap up open after Fridays massive sell off exceeding 100bps. Today brings us the New Home Sales Report New Home Sales: Actual 295K, prior 298K, (consensus 293K)Ok its better than consensus but don't put too much stock in that for anything other than to put a little perspective back in the picture. Lets face it economy is hurting, We have over 14M people looking for work, Prices at 2000 levels, Rates at historic low 60yr levels, New … (1 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Rates for week ending 09/23/11
- 09/23/11 05:29 AM
Mortgage Rates for week ending 09/23/11 Well as many of you know rates really took a fall (good for consumers who can qualify) this week. When you add up basically no growth in the economy, continued high unemployment, major concerns in the Euro (PIIGS), consumer confidence at very low levels and then Bernanke's speech stating it could be several more years before we emerge from this, the result was equities market took a major beating losing almost 800 points this week and bonds saw some of their best levels in well over 60 years. The winners of this week were most … (1 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Daily 09/20/11
- 09/20/11 05:08 AM
Mortgage Daily 09/20/11 Today brings us an interesting little twist. Not only does the equities market rebound from its 200+ point early sell of yesterday but it regains all of its losses and is slightly above its Friday close but the bonds are also doing well. Currently the FNMA 3.5 is at 101.531 which is only 6bps lower than its close on Monday.The 10Y treasury is fairing equally and it's yield is currently at 1.942% Here is what is driving the numbers to keep bonds in solid ground right now... Housing Starts: Actual 571K, prior 604K (consensus 590K) Building Permits: Actual … (0 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Weekly 9/19 - 9/23 2011
- 09/19/11 02:18 PM
Mortgage Weekly 9/19/11 - 9/23/11 Well the week looks poised to keep it 60yr record lows intact. The real issues and concerns over a Greek default has caused many investors to flee for lesser returns but for safer waters.(ie: US MBS and US Treasury's) With a retracement in equities and the Dow down over 200 pts early in the trading session (gained back about 1/2 its opening losses and ended -104) you have to see that the rally created last week, no matter how much wished for, cannot sustain itself on hopes and investor trading alone. There needs to be substance … (0 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Market 09/06/11... better late than never, right?
- 09/06/11 03:17 PM
Mortgage market 09/06/11... better late than never, right? Well of course the day is over but I have been so busy it is all I can do to keep up it seems. I hope to get this out much earlier for tomorrow. Here is the deal for today, JOBS, JOBS and NO JOBS! Thats really it. For the first time since the end of WWII have we had a period of time when under a presidency there was actually a ZERO jobs created... hmmmmmmmm makes me want 4 more, how about you? Anyway the markets turned south quickly and the DOW was showing … (0 comments)
mortgage market: How accurate do I need to be... exactly?
- 08/22/11 11:49 AM
How accurate do I need to be... exactly? (to earn your business) Today Mortgage rates position themselves to... To what? Exactly, no one really knows with any level of certainty the direction on markets as you have so many variables both nationally and globally. I am a big fan of calling direction on rates and markets and running a secondary market you have to be. From talking to others, of like mind, the topic of percentage of accuracy came up. I am assuming it was all of us beating our chests as how many correct calls we make against our peers. So going through … (3 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Rates replace Fridays losses.... Already!
- 08/08/11 06:18 AM
As I and several others predicted today's news has created a reversal of Fridays sell off. FNMA 4.0 coupon is back up over 103 again and currently sitting at +46 bps for the day. The 10Y is also fairing well at + 1 21/32!! The yield is at 2.37%!!!!!!!!!!! No guarantee on how long this will last but for now those looking to refinance, get out of an ARM, looking to lower their payments or looking to purchase have an excellent window of opportunity! There is no major driving news today so its all technicals and reality of the market place making … (1 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage rates cooling off a bit... needed
- 08/05/11 05:57 AM
Mortgage rates cooling off a bit... needed. OK I am in the lending business and say that rates decrease is good to cool off a bit? Yes I do and here is why. I am all for rates at their current levels and we may even see them further decrease, don't gamble when they are this good take what you have and laugh every month on your ultra low payment, because they dropped too quickly. What I mean by this is it is not healthy in ANY environment when a radical change occurs in either direction. It is based on fear, someones … (0 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Rates back to record lows of Oct 2010!
- 08/04/11 08:14 AM
Mortgage Rates back to record lows of Oct 2010! With the slew of bad economic news pouring in the equities market (that was WAY overvalued in my opinion) has seen a sell off of over 1000 pts in the last 7-10 days alone. This and the end of QE2 has provided a rude reality check wake up call to investors that have helped the bond market make an incredible rally. Since Wed of last week the bond market is up almost 300bps! Rates are back to the 4% fixed mark for 30 years and makes housing even more affordable for those … (2 comments)
mortgage market: Up Up and AWAAAAAY!!!
- 08/03/11 07:13 AM
Wow mortgage rates have taken an incredible turn to the good in the last week. From Last Wed to today we have seen bonds jump by almost 300bps!
Be very careful as this kind of massive spike (regardless of up or down) almost always come with some profit taking and slight corrections before it recovers and continues its trend.
Today the FNMA 4.0 is currently at 102.625 and the 10Y has moved from its intraday high of +14/32 with yields of 2.56% to -1/32 and its yield is currently at 2.61%, as of 11a PST I don't expect much change … (3 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Rates screaming right now!
- 08/02/11 07:42 AM
Mortgage rates are screaming right now!!!! They are screaming COME GET ME! And while that may be true as we are nearing closer to their record low point of 10/10 for those wishing to cash in on these great rates action will be needed. After another historic fast run upward the bond market has seen almost 250bps of gains since last Wed! Even if warranted from the poor economic news, you have to expect profit takers to jump on this bandwagon of gains and prices may take a temporary set back as outside of 10/10 we are in uncharted ground right … (0 comments)
mortgage market: Treasuries Stabilizing even as Debt Ceiling Approaches... interesting
- 07/28/11 04:39 AM
Treasuries stabilizing even as debt ceiling approaches... interesting. Good morning AR readers and members and as I wrote on Monday has held true with average of 30-50bps swings up and down each day today brought us a gap up open of +22bps to reverse some of yesterdays losses, that reversed that previous days gains. So today we are now 4 days closer to the debt ceiling D-Day of Monday 8/2/11 and treasuries are actually up a bit the 10Y is currently below 3.0% on its yield and the FNMA bond is almost a 1/4 higher in its pricing. Here is today's … (1 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Rates holding true to Monday's Call
- 07/27/11 09:38 AM
Mortgage Rates holding true to Monday's call. Today's downward trend is not shocking as it lines up perfectly with yesterdays large gains. While the debt ceiling looms ever closer and over the heads of all I do not expect to see anything different than the patterns we are seeing this week. Until a resolution comes rates will likely continue its roller coaster ride as those influencing rates and bonds try to guess the results ahead of time. Here are the other market drivers today... MBA Mortgage Purchase Index: Actual -5.0%, prior +15.5% Durable Orders: Actual -2.1%, prior 1.9% (consensus 0.5%) Durable … (0 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Rates remain choppy
- 07/26/11 04:48 AM
Mortgage rates remain choppy FNMA 4.0 is currently sitting at +22bps for the day 100.563 and the 10Y is +11/32 and yield is below 3 at 2.96% Here is the rest of today's news... Case-Shiller 20-city Index: Actual -4.5%, prior -3.96% (consensus -4.4%) Consumer Confidence: Actual 59.5, prior 58.5 (consensus 56.0) As yesterday not a lot of market driving news other than above and when you look at Case0Shiller being that poor as well as Consumer confidence still below 60 we are far from out of the woods. We do have a 35B auction going off this afternoon but all eyes … (0 comments)
mortgage market: Debt Ceiling looms and rates likely to get a bit choppy
- 07/25/11 04:12 AM
Debt ceiling looms and rates likely to get a bit choppy. As we draw nearer and nearer to the Aug 2, 2011 deadline for the US Debt ceiling issue I can only expect rates to be a bit choppy this week. As the CME Group increased margin requirement for dealers/traders in the treasury that will only lead to fewer playing in the space and as less competition is around that typically means higher costs/prices. The 10Y is already reacting negatively with a current loss of -16/32 and Yields have driven over the 3.0% mark once again. The Yield on the 10Y … (1 comments)
mortgage market: US Mortgage rates now tied to Italy...
- 07/11/11 04:11 AM
US Mortgage rates now tied to Italy??? Well as crazy as it sounds, today's follow up to Fridays massive +50bps gap up open added an additional +31 gap up to start off the session on a positive note. One of the main forces behind this is the EU sovereign debt issues. An emergency meeting was called today regarding concerns over Italy's massive debt and ability to repay, is at the forefront of this causing a flight to quality here in the US. In addition to the second day of solid opening gains, we have the 10Y up 18/32 putting it back below … (2 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Rates Improve as Economy doesn't follow expectations
- 07/08/11 04:00 AM
mortgage rates improve as economy doesn't follow expectations. Good morning AR members and readers, in something that is not a shock the over moved market got a severe wake up call this morning as the employment numbers came out with a very dismal report. This is why I say the ones who can manipulate the market, and do, can only do it for so long as the system will eventually align itself properly. Here are the numbers driving the markets for today IMPRESSIVE +50bps gap up open... Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 18K, prior 54K (consensus 80K) Nonfarm Private Payrolls: Actual 57K, prior … (2 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Rates awake... a day late from yesterdays news
- 06/15/11 06:05 AM
Mortgage rates awake a day late from yesterdays news Good Morning AR members and readers. Here is the info that is driving today's market, well not actually some of what is driving the market came out yesterday but I guess it took a while for the "ones in control" to understand it, lol. MBA Mortgage Index: Actual 13.0%, prior -0.4% CPI: Actual 0.2% , prior 0.4% (consensus 0.1%) Core CPI: 0.3%, prior 0.2% (consensus 0.1%) Empire Manufacturing: Actual -7.79, prior 11.9, (consensus 10.0) Industrial Production: Actual 0.1%, prior 0.0%, (consensus 0.2%) Capacity Utilization: Actual 76.7%, prior 76.9% (consensus 77.0%) NAHB Housing … (2 comments)
mortgage market: Volatile week ahead for Mortgage Rates?
- 06/13/11 05:18 AM
Good morning AR members and readers This week is PACKED with market driving news releases and should prove to be significant in making a larger move than typical, in both good or bad direction, depending on the data. The releases for this week are as follows... CPI Retail sales PPI Business Inventories NAHB Housing Empire Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Building Permits Philly Fed Michigan Sentiment Probably the biggest 3 divers in this group are the CPI, PPI and Retail sales numbers BUT lets face it we are in strange waters right now and there is a lot of emotion and fear still … (0 comments)
mortgage market: Mortgage Rates... Calm before the storm
- 06/10/11 04:39 AM
Good morning AR members and readers... This week appears to have shaped up, especially last couple days, to be the storm, before the calm, before the storm. We have had some serious movement, over the last 2 days, on very weak driving data (that's the storm round I). An overheated equities market showing a large 150(ish) point retracement from its folly or exuberance and unfounded gains yesterday and the 10Y yield is back down to the 2.95% mark again. What does all this mean? Likely today, and even Monday, could be the calming of the overreacted movements in the markets that caused some who … (0 comments)
Life, Lessons, Encouragment and a little market insight to boot, is a blog written by David Shamansky.
I write this as a daily informational and encouragement resource to others in the real estate and mortgage community.
Mortgage Market Weekly 09/26 - 09/30/11
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