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CNN / Money's "When will we hit bottom?" Forecasts

By
Real Estate Sales Representative with W.C. & A.N. Miller Realtors, a Long & Foster Co.

Today CNN/Money has been heavily advertising their new interactive map which shows their predictions for when each area of the country will "hit bottom" and how much further they believe each area's housing prices will drop.  Unfortunately, for us (the closest areas defined for the Washington, DC Metropolitan areas are labeled Bethesda and DC) they are predicting that prices in the Bethesda, MD area will drop another 11.1% and will hit bottom in the second quarter of 2010.   This type of thing only slows our chances of recovery, by discouraging potential buyers.   Here's the link to their report .  Click on the "Interactive Map" and then zoom in to the DC area to see the marker for Bethesda or DC ...

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/real_estate/home_price_forecast.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2009040212

 The Potomac 20854 zip code is fairing much better than the rest of Montgomery County, MD.  This chart compares home sales in the Potomac 20854 zip code between February 2008 and February 2009.  You can see that more homes sold (25 in 2009 compared to 17 in 2008) and for a slightly higher average sold price of 0.78% in Potomac, Maryland.

 

   2009

   2008

   % Change

Total Sold Dollar Volume:

$ 30,986,596

$ 20,907,150

48.21 %

Average Sold Price:

$ 1,239,464

$ 1,229,832

0.78 %

Median Sold Price:

$ 930,000

$ 1,260,000

- 26.19 %

Total Units Sold:

25

17

47.06 %

Average Days on Market:

117

175

- 33.14 %

Average List Price for Solds:

$ 1,384,864

$ 1,359,282

1.88 %

Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:

89.50 %

90.48 %

 

Montgomery County as a whole didn't fare as well for the same time period.  Below is the chart for the entire county.  You see that the total number of home sold dropped from 484 sold in February of 2008 compared with 448 sold in February 2009.   The average sold price dropped 25.52%. 

 

   2009

   2008

   % Change

Total Sold Dollar Volume:

$ 188,924,221

$ 274,052,306

- 31.06 %

Average Sold Price:

$ 421,706

$ 566,224

- 25.52 %

Median Sold Price:

$ 315,500

$ 415,000

- 23.98 %

Total Units Sold:

448

484

- 7.44 %

Detach/Attach Average Sold:

$ 540,399 | $ 279,302

$ 737,151 | $ 359,838

- 26.69 % | - 22.38 %

Average Days on Market:

118

121

- 2.48 %

Average List Price for Solds:

$ 473,121

$ 619,091

- 23.58 %

Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:

89.13 %

91.46 %

 

I hope and pray that CNN's forecasts don't hold true.   I believe that the Washington, DC Metropolitan area will lead our country's economic recovery, hopefully turning around before the end of this year.  Wish you all the best life has to offer.  Colleen Barlow, Realtor, Email: Colleen.Barlow@LongandFoster.com