Has the Macomb County real estate market hit Bottom?

For the past year we have been tracking the total number of listings, pending and Foreclosures, in our area. Why? We were looking for trends or signs that the Macomb County, Michigan real estate market hit the bottom. We figured once the foreclosures started to drop off we would finally see the bottom and maybe even get a bit of a rebound.

Funny thing is last year at this time we were estimating half way through 2009 we would start to level off again. But that was before the September 2008 financial crisis.

So what trends did we see in our tracking?

• Using just homes for sale over the past year we saw the number of total listings go up then drop off. Last year around this time we started at 6810 active listings. We peaked in July at 7126 and have steadily dropped since then and currently sit at 5254 homes for sale, as of April 1, 2009. Below is a chart showing the number Active Listings vs the number of active Foreclosures or Real Estate Owned / REO properties, in Macomb County.
  

• Looking closer at the chart below, we found the number of foreclosures in the active listings was climbing starting at 951 last year. They peaked in January at 1178 but even more interesting the foreclosures have dropped every month since then and as of April 1, 2009 they were down to 827. Finally!
  

• Next we looked at the homes that went Pending each month, we saw the total number increase from 943 last year in April, then in September they peaked at 1258, slightly dropped in December and again started to climb ending at 1332 this April. What really caught our eye was the fact that most of the pending sales were foreclosures.
  

Does this mean the Macomb County real estate market hit Bottom? Lets take a closer look.

• It appears the number of homes currently for sale are down but only because many sellers were simply priced out of the market. These are the sellers that want to move but do not want to foreclose or do a short sale. Yet simply do not have enough equity or money to move. Believe it or not this glut may actually help the market.
  

• The good news is with the inventory getting smaller and less foreclosures hitting the market, we are actually seeing a bit of frenzy in the market. That may be why sales are up.
  

• Even better the number of pending sales this year look much better than they did last year. And it's the beginning of spring.
  

• Now for the bad news. The drop in foreclosures since January is due in part to the Ban on foreclosures by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. According to a good article I read by Mary Kane in the Washington Independent the ban ended March 31, 2009. That may mean we are ready for another round.
  

With the Metro Detroit area hurting from the auto market the last thing we need are the foreclosures to come back. But we are hoping between the Neighborhood Stablization Program under President Bush and the $8000 First Time Home Buyer Credit, we will continue to bring out the buyers and increase sales.

Then maybe the Macomb County real estate market will finally hit bottom and take a ride back up. Something we really need in this area.