Mortgage bond prices fell last week applying upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. The bond market continued to come under pressure from significantly stronger stocks. The DOW shot towards the 8,000 mark despite data releases that showed continued economic weakness. Most worrisome were the many reports that indicated people continue to lose jobs. Consumers find it difficult to spend without a job or with the fear their job may be in peril. The weaker than expected consumer sentiment data provided evidence of that fear. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 3/8’s of a discount point.
The bond market closes early Thursday in advance of the market holiday Friday. The shortened trading week may result in mortgage interest rate volatility as traders position themselves ahead of the extended holiday weekend.
LOOKING AHEAD
| Economic Indicator |
Release Date & Time |
Consensus Estimate |
Analysis |
| Consumer Credit | Tuesday, April 7, 2:00 pm, et |
Down $1.5 billion | Low importance. A significantly larger than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates. |
| Trade Data | Thursday, April 9, 8:30 am, et |
$36.5 billion deficit | Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates. |
| Good Friday Holiday | Friday, April 10 | Important. Shortened trading week may lead to mortgage interest rate volatility. |
Credit Demand
Inflation is typically the most important focus for the mortgage interest rate market. Inflation remains a concern as the Federal Government continues to print and spend money in an effort to spur the economy. Unfortunately, mortgage interest rates also continue to be pushed around by gyrating stocks and weak demand as performance uncertainty looms and the Fed has become the primary buyer of mortgage-backed securities. Most of the recent increases in interest rates have come following stronger stocks. The Fed continues to pump billions of dollars into the market to try to keep mortgage interest rates relatively low and steady. Up until this past week they have done a pretty good job of accomplishing that task. Remember, the Fed is not the only player in the game and selling pressure continues.
The level of interest rates reflects the balance between the supply of money from investors and the demand for money by borrowers. Rising inflationary expectations and uncertainty about the performance of the debt cause investors to require higher rates of return on investments to compensate for the erosion of the principal that eventually is returned to them or the risk of non-performance. Regardless of inflation levels, though, rising economic activity can increase the demand for investors’ funds, and thereby lead to higher interest rates. Investors pulling money out of bonds and into stocks have recently pressured mortgage rates.
The demand for money diminishes as the economy struggles. The Fed lowers interest rates as an incentive to businesses and consumers to increase their borrowings. The Fed hopes manufacturers will increase their investments in plants, equipment and inventories and that consumers will push housing construction along with consumer spending and with that, consumer debt.
Analysts will monitor this week’s consumer credit levels. There is much debate in the financial community about the future. Economists, market analysts, and traders all seem to have a different opinion about the future state of the economy and especially whether or not we have hit the bottom of the economic slide. One thing most market participants agree on is both the bond and stock markets are going to see additional volatility. Now is a great time to take advantage of rates at the still historically favorable levels.
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