Real estate agents and others who work in the industry and are "in the trenches" day by day are positioned to see things happen before they show up as national statistics.
Lately I have noticed more multiple-offer situations. I have noticed this on the properties that are above average in terms of their appeal. I definitely don't see this happening across the board. Nevertheless, it gets my attention.
Are we inching closer to the end of the falling home prices that have been the norm?
According to NAR stats, the number of Existing Home Sales fell by a modest 140,000 units last month.
We have had five months of sales hovered in the 4.5 million range.
Add to that the fact that the national housing inventory is down by about 900,000 from its July 2008 peak.
These are good statistics, at least relatively speaking.
Along with that, the Commerce Department said the supply of newly-built homes for sale is at a 7-year low. Another good housing stat.
If home sales fall and the number of buyers stays the same, what is the result? The result is buyers looking at fewer houses. Would we expect supply and demand to cause home prices to at least start to level? Maybe even saying such a thing in the current environment sounds and feels too heretical to consider!
But wait, there's more! The March data is not inclusive of the $8,000 tax Credit for those purchasing their first home. Remember that the stimulus package was not passed until February. So most if not all of the March data does not reflect these buyers.
So...amidst the other statistical indicators that have not been anything to cheer about, there is also some data that is encouraging.
In my own part of the world I see prices declining at a - I would say - noticibly slower pace. And I see these multiple-offer scenarios in more than a few different situations: for example, extremely well-kept homes, and on the other end of the spectrum, extremely low-priced homes. I don't offer this as anything more than what I am observing locally.
That's the thing about the future...you can't be sure of it until it arrives.
Bottom line: make your home buying and selling plans with common sense based on a long term view, and not based on any absolute reading of events that have not yet occurred.
[The Kathy O’Neal Team serves home buyers and sellers in Northern Virginia, with special focus on Chantilly, Centreville, and the communities of the Western Fairfax region.]
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