Marin County Real Estate Market Update: What's Hot, What's Not (5/5/09)

Marin County Market Update - 1st week of May 2009

How's the Marin market? It all depends on where you live and what price range you're talking about. In general, the "lower" end of the market (up to $600,000) is surging. The higher end, though, is suffering.

What's Hot

The market is cooking for homes below $500,000 as buyers come off the sidelines and swoop in to pick up some great deals.  We're looking at pending sales here because the number of homes in escrow, or pending, is an important indicator since it represents today's news, whereas closed sales are yesterday's market.

As you can see in the chart, a whopping 61% of homes up to $500,000 are pending right now, indicating a seller's market. But unlike the recent past, buyers are not going crazy with overbids. In general, even homes that receive multiple offers are selling at or just slightly above the asking price (versus tens of thousands of dollars over the asking as in 2003-2006).

Homes in the $500,000-$600,000 range are selling well, too. Right now, 49% of homes are pending. This is considered a seller's market. (Traditionally, when 0-25% of homes are pending it's considered a buyer's market; 25-40% is a neutral market favoring neither buyers nor sellers and 40% and above is a seller's market.) This is not a perfect system; think of it as a rough rule of thumb.

Homes between $600,000 and $800,000 are seeing moderate buyer activity, and it's a neutral market.

What's Not

The higher end of the market, though, is stressed, and it has been for about the last five or six months. In Marin, of all homes priced in the low one-millions, only 19% are pending. Between $1.25M and $1.5M, it's 12%.  Suffering most is the $1.5M+ market, with only 1% of homes in escrow.

Year over year, sales of Marin County luxury homes ($1M and up) are down by almost half - 47%. Prices in this end of the market are down 13% when you compare April 2008 to April 2009. Marin County is not alone. The high end is stressed in cities and all over the country, with home prices down 12-24% in some places. While typicaly the luxury market is protected during tough economic times, things are different in 2009. The move up/move around buyers are in "delay" mode, in some cases because bonuses are not coming this year or investments are way down. Plus, foreign investors have turned to the low end of the market where they can buy in all cash.

People who are able to buy right now are in an excellent position to get a great deal and take advantage of low interest rates. Sellers out there: don't forget you still have some power if you are flexible and price aggressively off the bat. This will get you the most money possible for your homes.

Condo Sales

Year over year, condo sales rose only slightly in Marin County for the month of April. However, prices took a huge hit - down 32%. The condo and townhome market has been greatly impacted by foreclosures, which have put pressure on all values. That's why there are so many short sales now too as homeowners discover their homes are worth less than what they owe on them.

The good news is that the market decline is slowing and stabilization is near - many expect 2010 to be the year of stabilization with a slow comeback beginning in 2011.

If you are thinking of buying or selling, contact me today. I am happy to provide whatever information you need. This is a changed marketplace, and I have experience with all types of today's sales. Kevin McGinnis (415) 725-1911 or kmcginnis@fhallen.com

Search the latest homes for sale at www.BestHomeMarin.com  Daily list of foreclosures, too