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Economists are still morons

By
Mortgage and Lending with First Meridian Mortgage

I got a lot of feedback the last time I posted about how economists really have no idea what they are talking about. I have been saying for years that mortgage rates have very little effect on the housing market. I have said that expectation of future appreciation and eligibilty have much larger effects on people's decision whether to buy or not. Every economist disagrees with me.

 What is going on right now is proving me right.Right now, rates are at all time lows and the housing market is still in the toilet.  The rates can go below 3 percent and it would not make much of a difference. If people felt that we are at the bottom OR if eligibilty grew significantly, the housing market (and the overall economy) would start to rebound almost immediately.

 

Debi Braulik
www.roundrealestate.com - Maple Valley, WA
Selling Maple Valley to Fife WA Homes For Sale

People need to feel comfortable and hopeful to open their wallets. Right now they still don't. Until they do, the housing market will suffer. Who wants to take on that much debt with an uncertain future?

May 14, 2009 09:21 AM
Jerry Murphy, CRS, SRES
Long Realty West Valley - Anthem, AZ
Anthem, Phoenix, and Scottsdale AZ Real Estate

Until we see job losses at more normal levels of 150-200k per month we will not see a recovery.  People cannot buy homes, much less anything else, without income.  Jobs are the key to this whole thing. Good post and best of luck.

May 14, 2009 09:28 AM
Michael Pinter
First Meridian Mortgage - Brooklyn, NY

Debi,

I agree. Would you buy a home, even if rates were 2 percent, if you were unsure if your job was safe? Thanks for the comment. Feel free to subscribe to my blog.

Michael Pinter

 

May 14, 2009 09:32 AM
Michael Pinter
First Meridian Mortgage - Brooklyn, NY

Jerry,

Thanks for the comment. Feel free to subscribe to my blog.

Michael Pinter

May 14, 2009 09:33 AM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

I agree with Jerry. Job creations has always driven the housing market.  And, because of that, lowering interest rates only has a marginal effect on the housing market.

May 14, 2009 09:43 AM
Charles Stallions
Charles Stallions Real Estate Services - Pensacola, FL
850-476-4494 - Pensacola, Pace or Gulf Breeze, Fl.

The secret to being a good economist is telling 50% of the people one thing and the other another and they you can sell the 50% you were right with anything you want.

May 14, 2009 10:05 AM
Michael Pinter
First Meridian Mortgage - Brooklyn, NY

John,

Jobs are a big part of it for sure. Thanks for the comment. Feel free to subscribe to my blog.

Michael Pinter

May 14, 2009 10:06 AM
Chanda Barrick
Keller Williams Indy Metro Northeast - Indianapolis, IN
in referral

Just as Jerry said, it really doesn't matter what the rates are if people either A) don't have a job to pay for the purchase or B) they are concerned about the risk of losing their job.  In today's economy that would seem to be the majority...

Chanda (no 'r') :)

May 14, 2009 11:00 AM
Edward D. Nikles
Ed Nikles Custom Builder , Inc. / Nikles Realty , Inc. - Milford, PA

Michael , I also think the market velocity improves as rates cheat slightly upwards , as the fence sitters seem to realize , too late , that they missed the bottom -- again ! The experts then say the economy must be getting better because rates are going up -- self fulfilling prophesy ! Keepin' it Green !

May 14, 2009 02:36 PM
Michael Pinter
First Meridian Mortgage - Brooklyn, NY

Charles,

You are right. I once saw a ranking of the top ten economists and their scorecards as to what percentage of what they said in the past year was correct. After number three, they were correct less than 50% of the time. That means that the fourth best economist was incorrect more than correct. Thanks for the comment. Feel free to subscribe to my blog.

Michael Pinter

May 15, 2009 12:18 AM
Michael Pinter
First Meridian Mortgage - Brooklyn, NY

Chanda,

I agree completely. I forgot to mention the uncertainty about income. Thanks for the comment. Feel free to subscribe to my blog.

Michael Pinter

May 15, 2009 12:18 AM
Michael Pinter
First Meridian Mortgage - Brooklyn, NY

Ed,

That will definitely happen. The question is what happens after that? Thanks for the comment. Feel free to subscribe to my blog.

Michael Pinter

May 15, 2009 12:19 AM