How Long Will the Decline Last?

J Philip, you may be right. It may be that the little uptick some markets are experiencing is just that - a little uptick to be followed by another downtrend. If the bottom comes in 18 months, it may be years before we recover.

J. Phillip -This is exactly the type of information the consumers need to hear.  I know when I moved to Northern Dutchess in the late 80's and then IBM had that big downsizing in the early 90's the market was declining until the 911 event; then there was a dramatic rise which everyone knew would not be sustainable.

All that unsold inventory is going to take a long time to work through and it's hard to imagine prices going up until sometime after that is done.  Maybe I'm wrong though and they will shoot through the roof tomorrow?

Hi Phillip,

Interesting info, I remember the early-mid's 80's market very well. In So Cal we peaked in late 1988, we didn't know that however until 3rd quarter 89.

As for our nat'l debt, I doubt that anyone will ever see the end of that, hope I'm wrong but I don't see how at this point.

I remember the last drop clearly, and it seems as nothing concerned to the current one.  The drop here in the OC has been around 40%.

I think it is time people bought homes as a place to live and a secure investment for the long haul and those figures show an average appreciation that works out over the years.  I have felt for years that families could live in a bit smaller houses and not every child has to have his own bedroom and bathroom.  Maybe now people will make do with less. 

But J, Jim Cramer is predicting that the housing market will bottom on June 30th? ;)

From what I am looknig at it is entirely possible that home values could fall another 20% over the next two to three years based on the ongoing supply and demand imbalance.