The Los Gatos real estate market is not a unified "block" so much as it is a collection of micromarkets, a conglomeration of smaller markets by price point, school district, acreage, type of housing, and many other factors.
The overview is one indicator of the health of the community's real estate generally, but it may or may not be relavent to your home's pocket, or the neighborhood into which you'd like to purchase.
I. General Trends in the Los Gatos Real Estate Market (real estate "area 16", zip codes 95030 and 95032)
Los Gatos Houses - May 2009 Statistics and Trends
| Median Price | $1,012,000 | $955,000 (+6.0%) | $1,377,500 (-26.5%) |
| Average Price | $1,111,280 | $1,035,330 (+7.3%) | $1,438,880 (-22.8%) |
| No. of Sales | 20 | 25 (-20.0%) | 36 (-44.4%) |
| Pending Properties | 37 | 26 (+42.3%) | 37 (0.0%) |
| Active | 160 | 170 (-5.9%) | 163 (-1.8%) |
| Sale vs. List Price | 95.6% | 95.0% (+0.5%) | 97.5% (-2.0%) |
| Days on Market | 55 | 54 (+0.7%) | 27 (+104.8%) |
The months of inventory, or absorption rate, is found by dividing the "actives" by the "solds" in the last month. So the months of inventory in May would be 160/20 = 8 months of inventory. In April it was 170/25 =6.8. So the market has become more of a buyer's market. (Six months is balanced, less is seller's market, more is buyer's market.)
To see the full details for the statistics and trends for Los Gatos single family homes (houses) please visit my online Real Estate Report.
Los Gatos Condominiums and Townhouses - May 2009 Statistics and Trends
| Median Price | $587,475 | $710,000 (-17.3%) | $875,000 (-32.9%) |
| Average Price | $643,738 | $700,222 (-8.1%) | $890,000 (-27.7%) |
| No. of Sales | 4 | 9 (-55.6%) | 3 (+33.3%) |
| Pending Properties | 5 | 8 (-37.5%) | 10 (-50.0%) |
| Active | 49 | 51 (-3.9%) | 46 (+6.5%) |
| Sale vs. List Price | 97.3% | 94.5% (+2.9%) | 95.5% (+1.9%) |
| Days on Market | 75 | 74 (+2.0%) | 47 (+60.6%) |
Months of inventory (absorption rate) among all condos and townhomes was 49/4 = 12.25 in May and 51/9 = 5.6 for April. Big swing - looks like March was the "hot month" for sales among condos. Some of it may be seasonal fluctuations that will only be really clear when a few more months have passed.
To see the full details for the statistics and trends for Los Gatos condos & townhomes, please visit my online Real Estate Report.
II. Looking at a smaller segment of the market
There's a way we can crunch the numbers on our mls to get some of the smaller sections of the Los Gatos real estate market. It's a bit labor intensive but I have found it useful when looking at some price points, school districts, or both to see what's happening.
Earlier today I did some of this number crunching for a client and thought I'd share it here. In Los Gatos, there are a lot of variables, as mentioned earlier. Perhaps the biggest one is the school district. We have separate districts for elementary/middle schools and high schools. To make it easiest, I'll break it down by high school district (because there are fewer of them - really just two in town). Locals tend to refer to schools that include and feed into Los Gatos High as "in the schools" or "in the district". The other schools, which are in more outlying areas of town, are in the Campbell Union High School District (CUHSD).
What I wanted to know is how the market is for the "under $1 million" homes in Los Gatos. Overall, it's a whole lot better then the rest of the town! The "months of inventory" for Los Gatos overall was 8 months in May, but we see that in the under $1,000,000 group, right now it's a brisk three months! (COE = close of escrow. COE in last 30 days means that there was a completed sale within the last 30 days.)
| All of 95030, 95032 | Active | 33 | months of inventory | 3 | |
| Pending | 25 | active-pending ratio | 1.32 to 1 | ||
| COE in last 30 days | 11 | ||||
| Los Gatos Schools | Active | 13 | months of inventory | 4.6 | |
| Pending | 15 | active-pending ratio | .86 to 1 | ||
| COE in last 30 days | 3 | ||||
| C'bell Union HSD | Active | 20 | months of inventory | 2.5 | |
| Pending | 10 | active-pending ratio | 2 to 1 | ||
| COE in last 30 days | 8 |
What can we tell from this?
First of all, the lowest priced homes in Los Gatos have a much better chance of selling then the higher priced homes. We are seeing this trend across Silicon Valley such that in entry level houses that are aggressively priced, there are multiple offers and overbidding.
Second, these recent closed represent sales that started a month or two ago. Among the closeds, there was a strong buying period in the outlying parts of town. Now, though, we see a stronger movement among homes "in the schools" such that now, more homes are pending then are for sale and available!
Viewing it another way, the ratio between actives and pendings indicates that a large percentage of homes in the Los Gatos School District are selling or will sell right now. With the homes that have the Campbell Union High School District, it's about half. So the "chances of selling" appear to be 50/50.
That's actually not bad - recently, the odds across town for homes selling was only about 19%, or 1 in 5.
Although I have not crunched all the numbers, I suspect that the higher the price point, the more challenging the sale.
Of course, any home can sell in any market if the basics are right: condition, location, pricing, and marketing. You can't do much about the location once you've bought. Everything else, though, can be controlled and adjustments can be made such that a home is sellable, and most of it is in the control of the homeowner.
Whether looking at houses, condos, or townhomes, it's important to get and understand the data not just for Los Gatos as a whole, or your zip code, but for your segment of the market precisely. This is equally true whether you want to buy or sell a Los Gatos home.
Please call or email me for guidance with your particular plans to sell or buy a home!
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