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WHAT DO THE NUMBERS TELL US?

By Roberta Lee

Real Estate Agent with Century 21 Olde Tyme

May 30, 2007 10:42 AM

Like most of us, the other night I was doing my weekly MLS search to get the latest statistics. I know there have been posts written about this but for some reason it just hit me. You know how you hit your forehead when the thought or idea finally dawns? Well I had one of those moments. I wish I could say it was cathartic, but it wasn't that illuminating. It did however, help me to put things in prospective.

In my search, I went back to January 1, 2006. Now we all know the market was beginning to change by then, but it wasn't as extreme as it is now.

Here is what I found out for my area only. Remember, I live in Southern California.

All listing are down by almost two thirds. Of those listed the average (not mean) were on the market from 89 to 233 days. Of those the average was about 190 days. The ones on the market the longest were in the price range of 7 figures and $350,000. to $400,000. I found that very interesting. The million dollar homes didn't surprise me; it was the less expensive homes that gave me pause to wonder.

The agents that were the top producers in 2005 were not the top producers in 2006 nor are they, so far, in 2007; and being a top producer right now doesn't mean much. It means that you are barely surviving.

Of course along with the slow down in listings and sales we have to look at the revision in obtaining loans. The plethora of loans that were available have dwindled down to a precious few. It is harder to qualify for a loan and there are fewer programs to qualify for. This means we have fewer buyers for the homes that are on the market. Right now more than ever it is necessary to have your buyer pre qualified . I know that is a mantra we have sung for as long as I have been in business, but more so now than ever. If you don't want to waste your time and that of your buyers you will have them pre qualified before you even look for that perfect home for them. The day of the lender telling us they can get any one a loan is gone from view for a while at least. Of course they will come back in some form or another, and the market will change, but right now it seems to me that the genie is back in the bottle for a while.

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Nick and Joslyn Solomon

Century 21 Moline Realty - Cambridge, MN

The Solomon Team - Century 21 Moline Realty, Inc.

I like this blog. It's very true. I haven't looked at the numbers overall for our county - I know that our office is close to as busy. Right now if you can fog a mirror you can get listings, but they're usually overpriced and expired listings previously on the market. Buyers, on the other hand, are something you need to fight for. Foreclosures are up, flooding the market with "affordable" starter homes. I have some really GREAT priced listings, that just aren't seeing any action, because there are so many out there to compete with.

The loan subject is scary, too. I know it is a cycle, a normal cycle that turns and turns, but it will be interesting to see where we go from here. I'm sure we'll see some government programs, at least in this area, to help get people into homes instead of renting, because our income ratio is so low.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see!

May 30, 2007 10:54 AM

David Spencer

Keller Williams Northland - Kansas City, MO

Show Me real estate in Kansas City

The west coast, ie California, has this strange phenomena of multple mortgages - 2nd -3rd-4th etc. We don't have that in the midwest (were sane).

Times like these require some thought, "Articles of Agreement"- "Creative Financing". Problem is that today, as opposed to the early 80's when interest rates were 18% to 20%, buyers have no source of available cash. but remember the tough get going and find alternatives. Remember "money" is in the eye of the beholder. Remember the story of "the Red Paper Clip" (you can Google it).

May 30, 2007 11:37 AM

Roberta Lee

Century 21 Olde Tyme - Norco, CA

Norco Corona Riversid Homes For Sale

Joslyn

I notice you are from Minnasota. I am so happy that things are not so bad for you there. The word that is getting to some of the sellers here is, this isn't the time to get your money out of your house. They don't want to list for less than they think their house is worth. This is the problem with the listings over 100 days on the MLS. But as we all know it is a cycle and will level off at some point. The question as I see it is, how agents will we lose before that happens?

Thanks for the comments and for taking the time to stop by. :)

May 30, 2007 01:41 PM

David

Yes, in California you can use your house as your own ATM card, where as in Texas you can't. There are many foreclosures here due to the fact many over refinanced and couldn't make the payments. So sad. But that having been said, foreclosures are not that easy to qualify for. Once burned..... is how the lender feels.

Thanks for the comments and I hope you had a great day. :)

May 30, 2007 01:45 PM

Robert

I couldn't agree with you more. But in my mind I have always felt that way. I have had some LO treat me as though I was an interloper and not give me information that would have been helpful to the transaction. I feel the more closely agent and loan officer work the better for the client....always.

Thanks for the comment and for taking time to stop by. :)

May 30, 2007 01:47 PM

Roberta - You are exactly right. People need to understand that property values were inflated above normal, and now they are settling back into normality. You can't buy a house and a year later make $40,000 on it anymore. That's just not the way it works. No fun to tell people that, but seriously - don't they watch the news???

May 31, 2007 03:36 AM

Well I can see we are on opposite sides of this country. $40,000.? Oh no my friend. Here in CA it was any where from 100,000. to 300,000. in a year. Now try to explain to the sellers of today that if they get only $10,000. today They are lucky. And when you tell them that is the market, and it will level out, they don't want to hear it. :( Sellers only hear what they want to hear. Let's hope here in CA it will catch up with itself soon. Have a great day and thanks for the comments. :)

May 31, 2007 05:11 AM

Ronda Myers-Waters

Willems Realtors, Principal Broker - Chesterton, IN

Thanks for the post. I'll have to do the research in my area. I know that anything above $250,000 is barely moving. The low end home are selling ok.

Jun 01, 2007 06:12 AM

Ronda

I would be interested in know what you have in your area. The strange thing in this area is, the lower priced homes are not moving well. Go figure. Thanks for the comment. :)

Jun 01, 2007 06:21 AM

Ray Saenz

Exit Realty Laredo - Laredo, TX

Homes for Sale in Laredo, TX - Texas, Realtor

Hey Roberta, My friend, I have lost many of your blogs :), I need to have time to sit and check them all, keep the good blog and very interesting blogs, I have seen just very quickly and you are doing very good !

Jun 19, 2007 05:20 PM

Ray,

Oh my friend thank you for the kind words. I have been in Texas for about 7 days so I haven't posted much. But I'm back now and will go to work. Thanks for stopping by and commenting. You are such a dear. :)

Jun 20, 2007 01:57 PM

WHAT DO THE NUMBERS TELL US?

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