To use Jim Cramer's own words, Cramer's housing bottom call today is "shameful".
He has no idea what is going on out there.
Jim Cramer is being an academic, something he accused Ben Bernanke of nearly two year ago.
This is a different kind of market, Cramer. It is not just about stabilizing demand, it is about the relationship of demand relative to the supply of housing, also known as the month's supply of housing. As long as foreclosures continue to flood the market and demand remains weak, home values will erode as they have been for the past 2.5 years.
Cramer's call for a housing bottom, which he defines as, "What does a bottom look like? It's the combination of ramping sales, and sales in certain areas are up ten times those of last year, and an end to falling prices." As Cramer likes to do, he often overlooks the facts. According to the NAR, 44 out 50 states saw declines in home sales from the 1Q08 to the 1Q09.
Unfortunately for Cramer, what he and many others fail to recognize is that the excess supply of homes, which is responsible for driving down home values, continues to plague the housing market. I have made the case before that due to recent foreclosure moratoriums, shadow inventory, rising mortgage delinquency rates (a record 12.07% of all mortgages are 30 days late), and massive job losses (most economists agree that there is a correlation between job losses and foreclosures), we are only in the eye of the storm right now in terms of foreclosures and escalated levels of housing inventory. This housing depression still has another two to three years to run its course.
The real unemployment rate has surged to 16.4%.
Credit card defaults just set a record in May.
According to the MBA a record 12.07% of all mortgages are 30 days late.
And Cramer wants us to believe that we are not going to see a new sea of foreclosures drive down home values?