Has The Naples Florida Real Estate Market Stabilized?

When one of Florida's top economists stated that Naples had bounced last fall, I distinctly remembered thinking...oh really...how the heck do you know.  I was hesitant to be overly skeptical due to the fact that I was in complete disbelief when chirps about the Naples Florida market bouncing a few years ago came without even a hint of slow down and then roughly 6 months later those statements were clearly evident.

Since the evident slow down, I've learned to wait...and wait and watch and study...

It's been a little more than 6 months since that glimmer of hope hit the media and I have to say...there are definite signs of a rebound.  Since I've been selling (1996) One aspect of market trends that have always remained consistent is that the lower priced properties tend to start moving first and then activity continues up the price ranges as a market continues to strengthen. 

During the last 4 years or so when I've pondered the health of the market I've relied on a wide variety of resources.  One of which is a comparison between web stats of both my Naples Florida real estate website and a local competitor who places really well but is geared more towards the lower ended market.  For years I've had better traffic than they have but I've noticed during the last year the gap in activity between their site and mine has been shrinking.  Bad news for my business directly since I handle mostly higher ended property but good news for the Naples Florida market as a whole.  It's also good news if my theory of market trend is accurate and based on pending and closed sales this year...I may be correct.

If any of you are Fox News fans you may have just heard how we're in for another 3 years of a total real estate doom and gloom with our state of disaster seemingly ending "quite abruptly" the last quarter of 2012.  Granted those are nationwide mortgage default projections and although many once thought Naples Florida wasn't affected by what goes on in the rest of the world, we in fact are.  At the same time, we have seen magnificent increases of sales on properties priced below $500,000 and I can even say I've seen a nice bump in some recent pending and sales in some of our more luxurious neighborhoods as well.

Interestingly, June is simply not a stellar time of year for Naples real estate.  Our market is actually reversed compared to most areas across the country because it's hot, humid and usually rainy here during this time of year.  Our peak selling season is between January and April...mostly.

Even still, my web traffic is up 45% this June compared to last.  Real estate sales and pendings are also showing significant increases.  There were a total of 275 pending properties the first 15 days of June last year.  This year there are 562...not bad.  On the closed sale side of the spectrum there were a total of 286 closed sales from June 1st through the 15th this year while there were only 200 last year during the same time.  Folks, that still a 43% increase.

This is the part I like to pay attention to the most: 

Buyer and Seller Behavior

Back in April I wrote a blog post that showed a graph provided by Hank Fishkind depicting the public had this emotional feeling about our market:

Although I know a few agents, sellers and buyers who are still hovering in the "depression" segment, I've actually seen and heard more buyers, sellers and agents gearing more towards hope and in a few cases even relief!  Is this because we're coming off peak selling season?  Actually, I don't think so.  The euphoria of any buzz season would've given people would've since worn off yet I'm still hearing very positive conversation around town.  This includes casual conversation about sellers selling, buyers buying and agents doing both. That sort of chatter is something that been missing for awhile and if memory serves...there is nothing wrong with that!

Is this your get off the fence free card?  Nope, this is just a few observations and a few facts I've compiled to keep you in the loop.  If you're contemplating buying or selling in Naples, you always want to consult a smart Naples real estate agent!

Best Regards,

Your Naples Smart Girl!