The White House As An Economic News Source?

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner

According to Reuters, Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary said today, "I think the president has said this, and I would certainly say this, I think you're likely to see unemployment at 10 percent within the next couple of months."

Yeah, like NEXT month.

Thank you Captain Obvious.

That would have been great information to consider several months ago when you projected a peak unemployment rate of 8%, a number that you have based a lot of your economic and housing "stimulus" projections off of.

Currently the advertised unemployment rate sits at 9.4% in May, in April it was 8.9%.  There is a pretty darn good chance that it will hit 10% in June when the numbers are published in a couple of weeks.  It looks like the Obama administration is going to need a bigger chart (courtesy of Geoff)...

Why is the unemployment number relevant?  Other than the fact that the current administration doesn't understand the gravity of the situation, the unemployment number is relevant because it is the compass by which economic decisions are based off of.  It is how you calculate projected deficits in GDP.  And as a result, it allows you to better understand what needs to be done to stabilize the housing market and broader economy.  Washington is bringing a knife to a gun fight.

 

Comments (9)

Kim Curran
RE/MAX Unlimited of Northern Virginia - Bristow, VA

AMEN.

Jun 22, 2009 08:47 AM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Mark - And, we're headed into jobless numbers higher than the bank "stress tests" accounted for. Then what?

Jun 22, 2009 11:16 AM
Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix, AZ

John:  Then we start TARPing banks...again...and guaranteeing more loans...again.  And then Obama trots out Geithner to have the banks buy each others toxic assets with tax-payer guarantees, all the while the economy goes to hell.  But at least the banking system will be on solid ground. :)

Jun 22, 2009 11:25 AM
Mike Saunders
Lanier Partners - Athens, GA

Mark - which does not include underemployment. By the way, In April, American take home increased by $121 billion. However, it did not go into the economy, since savings increased by $131 billion (strangely, the savings figure also includes the payoff of credit card debt, can't figure that one out).

Jun 22, 2009 12:51 PM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

I think that the CBO had it right when they said that the bailout as proposed by the Obama Administration would actually hurt the economy.  We would have been better off saving the Trillion Dollars...

Jun 22, 2009 04:56 PM
Kevin Robinson
Twin Falls, ID
Fractional Developer

Mark- Looks like they may have predicted this one incorrectly.

Jun 23, 2009 01:14 AM
Mike Frazier
Carousel Realty of Dyer County - Dyersburg, TN
Northwest Tennessee Realtor

Mark,

Surely the honeymoon is over. All that stimulus money wasted to get these results!

Jun 24, 2009 02:48 AM
Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix, AZ

Mike:  The best statement I heard recently was from Dick Morris.  He said that rather than Obama wanting to pass legislation that would cure this recession, he is using the recession as an excuse to pass legislation that will satisfy his own agenda.

I am amazed that there has not been one mention of cutting the capital gains tax, cutting taxes for all Americans (including business owners), or repealing the Tax Reform Act of 1986 as it pertains to investment real estate passive loss or income limitations.

There has not been any legislation proposed or passed that will actually have a sustained impact on stimulating job creation or investment in this country.

Jun 24, 2009 02:55 AM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

Fixing the economy wasn't the goal.  If it had been, we wouldn't have gotten a "stimulus" bill that didn't spend parge parcels of the money for years... pointless...

Jun 24, 2009 03:21 PM