CNBC's Diana Olick vs. Jim Cramer

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner

There are housing analysts, and then there is Jim Cramer.

For those of you who don't know, in August of 2008, CNBC's Jim Cramer predicted that the housing market would bottom in June of 2009.  Well, here we are in June of 2009, and rather than Cramer swallow his pride and admit that he was wrong, Cramer confirmed his prediction and made a shameful housing bottom call despite the fact that the preponderance of evidence points to continued home value declines. 

Diana Olick is CNBC's housing analyst who continues to see weakness and risk in the housing market based on, well, the preponderance of evidence. 

So knowing that these two both work at CNBC, I couldn't help but find the humor in Olick's recent post when she wrote the following in response to some people (Cramer?) thinking she is too bearish on housing, "I'm not a bear; I'm a realist. It's your right to have an opinion, but it's not my job. My job is to gather for you and funnel to you the facts: The numbers, the trends, the industry forecasts and the experts' analyses. I have no agenda and frankly gain nothing from being either a bull or a bear. If anything, I'd be better off personally as a housing bull. CNBC doesn't allow me to own stock, but I can own a house, and I do. If you think housing has bottomed, that's your opinion, but that's just what it is: Opinion."

Comments (13)

Goodbye Active Rain
Out of Real Estate

I think Jim Cramer is being fed info to speak about irregardless of whether he is right or wrong.  With regards to the housing market being bad or good is a matter of interpretation.  The media and those who work the retail end say its bad.  Investors love the market.  Everything is for sale.

Jun 23, 2009 01:42 AM
Home Loan Search.Online
Home Loan Search Online - Newnan, GA

I'm not a big fan of CNBC but I wonder if the improvement in the market recently is a seasonal adjustment and someting that might or might not be sustainable.

Jun 23, 2009 01:45 AM
Terry Miller
Miller Homes Group - Tyler, TX
Miller Homes Group and Tyler Apartment Locator

Just like weather men, he gets paid and is never right. Ego pure ego.

Jun 23, 2009 01:49 AM
Bill Gillhespy
16 Sunview Blvd - Fort Myers Beach, FL
Fort Myers Beach Realtor, Fort Myers Beach Agent - Homes & Condos

Hi Mark,  Perhaps we need some definition of what a " bottom " actually is.  I see very few analysts who think we are not in some form of a bottom.

Jun 23, 2009 01:56 AM
Larry DeGroat
Realty Professionals, Inc. - Searcy, AR
ABR, CRS, e-PRO, GRI in Searcy

I have seen the market pick up but only feel it is because this is the time of the year that it normally picks up.  I am in Central Arkansas and did a study for the first 5 months of 2008 and the same first 5 months of 2009 and we are off nearly 36% compared to the amount of transactions comleted in 2008.  To me, that is DOWN.  That is a lot.  Yes, the phone is ringing and houses are selling but it has nothing to do with what the government is doing, it is normally like this at this time of the year and a 36% loss in business is not a good thing.  I usually look at the glass being half full but reality is what it is.  I like Cramer and nobody is perfect.

Jun 23, 2009 02:03 AM
Bill Ladewig
LoanOfficerSchool.com - Escondido, CA
Experience Is Your Advantage

Hi Mark, I think, if we are not at the bottom, we are very close.  Cramer might not be far off.

Jun 23, 2009 02:04 AM
Tim Maitski
Atlanta Communities Real Estate Brokerage - Atlanta, GA
Truth, Excellence and a Good Deal

How were they going to define the bottom?  If you use the Case Shiller Index you would have to wait until September to get the June information.  Then you'd have to wait another six months before any sort of clear trend could be determined. 

Tops and bottoms are really hard to determine in real time.  By the time most peple realize that the market has bottomed, we'll probably be a year into it. 

I can't stand Cramer but it's way too early to say that is was wrong. 

Jun 23, 2009 02:09 AM
COMPASS PALM SPRINGS | Stewart Penn
COMPASS - Palm Springs, CA
COMPASS Palm Springs - Broker Associate

Jim Cramer always is, and always has been an idiot.

Just watch his ridiculous behavior on his show while purportedly discussing important matters.

Jun 23, 2009 02:13 AM
Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix, AZ

Tony:  With due respect, just because something is on sale doesn't mean prices are not going lower in the majority of markets.

Integrity Mortgage:  Here is a link to the seasonally adjusted sales data for the past couple of months.  Home sales on a seasonally adjusted basis remain weak.

Terry:  Indeed.  I am just amazed that CNBC continues to trot him out.

Bill:  While home sales have stabilized, at least for the interim, I am yet to see any indication that home prices have.  Home prices are driven by demand AND supply.  Currently a record 12% of all mortgages are 30 days late.  We are heading for another tsunami of foreclosures as the job market continues to deteriorate.

Larry:  Thanks for bringing that data up, the NAR has shown that home sales are down year over year in 44 out of 50 states.

 

Jun 23, 2009 02:46 AM
Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix, AZ

Bill:  I am yet to see any evidence that would support this.  The relationship between the supply and demand for real estate is still very weak.  In fact, indications are that another tsunami of foreclosures is about to make land-fall.

Tim:  Home values are driven by supply and demand.  Currently in May, according to the NAR, there is a 9.6 month supply of housing.  This indicates that there is still significant downward pressure on home values.  Additionally, the supply of homes is about to be impacted by the next wave of foreclosures which are a result of the deteriorating job market and loan resets.

Jun 23, 2009 02:52 AM
Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix, AZ

Stewart:  Indeed.  Cramer is an entertainer.  Nothing more, nothing less.

Jun 23, 2009 02:53 AM
John Walters
Frank Rubi Real Estate - Slidell, LA
Licensed in Louisiana

That graph speaks volumes of whats to come.  Cramer is a big mouth and I listen to him rarely.

Jun 23, 2009 05:46 AM
Kathy Toth
Ann Arbor Market Center Keller Williams - Ann Arbor, MI
Ann Arbor Real Estate Experts - Kathy Toth Team

There's more "entertainment" on CNBC lately that on NBC. I'm not sure where you can actually find real news anymore.

Jun 23, 2009 10:35 AM