Consumer Confidence Highest Since February 2008?

Real Estate Broker/Owner

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said that consumer confidence rose to 70.8 in June, the highest reading since February of 2008.

This of course begs the question, why?

As I wrote about last month, it appears that the tail is wagging the dog with these numbers.

There are three major "economic" concerns that people have, their home, their job, and their investments (stocks).

Home values are still falling like a rock as is evidence by the latest numbers published by the NAR showing a -16.8% decline.  There are very good indications that home values will continue to fall for the next two to three years.

The advertised unemployment rate is likely to hit 10% in June and the "real" unemployment rate is currently at 16.4%.

The only bright spot has been the recent rally in the stock market which itself has proven that it is no longer an economic indicator.  In other words, the stock market has surged over the past couple of months as a result of pent-up optimism more than anything else.

Even Warren Buffet has recently come out and said that the economy is in "shambles" and he does not see any "green shoots."

While Warren is not perfect, I am guessing the man that owns several businesses has a different pulse on the economy than most consumers do.

Comments (5)

Matt Grohe
RE/MAX Concepts - Des Moines, IA
Serving the metro since 2003

Mark: I'm with you, I'm stumped. Seems like form the Wall Street Journal things are really in the tank worldwide.

Jun 26, 2009 04:09 PM
Dean Moss
Dean's Team - Keller Williams Realty Partners Chicago IL - Chicago, IL
Dean's Team Chicago IL Real Estate Team

Mark -

Maybe the public is beginning to feel things have to get better, or that they can't get much worse.

The start of the turnaround will begin in Real Estate - I am convinced of it - when opportunistic buyers and investors snap up distressed homes and commercial properties.

Here in Chicago, we have already begun to see that!


Jun 26, 2009 04:15 PM
Franklin & Brentwood, TN Homes Mike Nastri
Keller Williams Realty - Franklin, TN
It matters to us as much as it matters to you.

I go along with Dean, it seems to be on the upswing here too.  Maybe it is just an up season, or my location in Tennessee,  but I am starting to receive the KW profit share for the first time in a nearly a year, so something positive must be happening.  

But we should remember, the larger the ship the longer it takes to change direction.

Jun 26, 2009 04:28 PM
Jim Hale
Eugene Oregon's Best Home Search Website

It's not about the housing market,  Stupid. 

It's about getting that housing market back on track.

There are signs that it might be heading back again -- in California among other places.

Jun 26, 2009 07:03 PM
Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix, AZ

Jim:  I'm not sure what you mean.

There are three markets that are showing sings of real stability in terms of supply and demand, CA, AZ, and NV.  The rest of the country is deteriorating.  I guess all we need is for home values to come down 50% in the rest of the country and we'll be in great shape. :)

Jun 27, 2009 12:25 AM