Is the worst yet to come?

Lewis: Thanks for your insights. I am personally seeing my business grow. But, then again, I'm not a rock star yet. I have seen the purchase market heat up. It's not robust but, compared to last year, it's a nice change. Are things still difficult? Yes. Underwriting is as tough as ever and it appears the economy is not going to improve right away.  I don't necessarily share your fatalistic opinion but I do agree we've got a ways to go. Thanks for the post! Take care.

Lewis... excellent post for several reasons.  I have been brewing a post such as the one you wrote.  It should be out in 3 days or so.  And for more staggering numbers, go read Lenn Harley's post, Optimistic about the economy? Foreclosures...  overall, I see things that will be worse and the gov't in my opinion is putting out false and misleading numbers.

@ Paul and JW... I will disagree with you both.  yes, real estate is local. Paul, you have mentioned the same in some of my posts, that things are better for you. I am not going to try to make this a nasty debate.... but I could throw some curve balls to you.   If you closed 1 a month and now close 2 a month, that is a 50% swing.  You could have made more money on a few people that were out of your norm.  My point...  real estate is local.  It's also to where some places on the west coast does better and then the east coast follows.  I know this for a fact because of certain people that I talk to all over the US.  Its a pattern that I have been watching for 3 years now.

Overall, you might see your business grow on many different accounts. Maybe you picked up two new realtors that you didn't have last year.  As years go on, you build a pipeline of old clients, past referrals can come from this... past and new referrals. If you look at the national numbers, it's worse overall.  Applications were down last month, by like 14%.  That is a national number, not a Paul McFadden doing better.  Again, not trying to point this at you. But I have heard many realtors doing better than they did last year. This is coming from a few that just started 2 years ago. Again, there are many reasons. 

@JW....  I will disagree... there is more negative stuff out there this year and last year relating to loan officers than I have ever seen in my 16 year carreer.  There are more loan officers and or lenders botching deals now than before. More lies than ever before, and we have less in the business than we did 2 years ago. The ones that get greedy or just don't know any better, will ruin it for the good ones and for the good name of loan officers.  I have not checked where you work, but I do loans in 8 different states, so I hear more of what goes on out there... and it's the truth and it's very sad.  Sometimes people that are just positive people, don't want to hear the negative things. I want to hear about them and I do talk about them in my blogs. Why?  because people need to be aware and it educates them. It gives the borrower/reader examples.  And it's the truth... I don't believe in sugar coating. Besides, my most recent example not only saved a client a lot of money, but I got a deal from my previous blog.  Please read : FHA origination fees.

Lewis... sorry for hijacking this post... but I truly believe it is bad out there and many numbers are misleading. I will have all of this in my upcoming blog.  Mean while, I am flagging this post for a feature.  good job.  PS... my comments above our of my opinion, but also will be backed by real numbers and not just statements that the gov't makes just to help consumer confidence. 

JW... I respect your opinion, but you don't know me at all.  It's not about the fact that you couldn't get a deal done to save your life.  You might not like my answer on that one, trust me. And as I stated, I don't believe in total negativity, but I do believe in being upfront, real, and direct... to the point. I have a problem with the media and politicians that spread both negative and positive things. I agree, to stay positive and to help those with credit problems.  But if you are promoting positive stuff just to give people hope, one needs to be careful with that. There is a thing called false hope, which I call fluff. I guess you missed my point about blogging about negative issues.  To me, it's called educating. If people aren't made aware of what to watch for, then you aren't doing your job either. My opinion, but if you do the simple math, it seems right. Hence why I use these examples in my blog and it has saved people thousands of dollars.

Overall, yes, you can think and do what you want. Style or not, I am about what is out there, the good and the bad. If we don't share both sides, how can one know or judge correctly. ???  Yes, it's about the company that you work for and the support.  But question then, why did it take 5 years to realize this?  or... why did it take a down market?   I have worked for some bad companies in the past, yet I still managed to get loans closed, even difficult loans.  Support or not, it starts with the loan officer.  But this post wasn't about this.... If you go back and read the points mentioned in this post, they are real and spot on.  And I guess you missed the part about business being local and the west coast vs east coast thing. This is a fact...   I am a numbers guy and a stats guy. I could be here forever....  question, prior to your current company, how states was your broker licensed in? thanks

Lewis... my point exactly, the President and those that surround him, keep doing a song and dance now.  One day, the economy is getting better, that we are almost out of a recession... but that unemployment is higher.  And as you stated, that they misread the economy....  that the stimulus bill is working...  yet we see more jobs lost than recovered.  Which is it?  You can't have both. I truly believe they say all of this to help with consumer confidence. 

Overall, it shouldn't be about what's negative or what's positive, just to give the warm fuzzy feelings to everyone. I want the truth, for be people to be direct, and straight forward. It shouldn't be what you see in your area, but on a national level.  And people should know about this, so we can try and help, possibly making this all turn around. The gov't certainly isn't making this happen, as they think. Their efforts and massive spending in my opinion, aren't and won't do as much as they predicted. To say that they have the best economists in the world, that they know what they are doing???  That statement is a joke.  Sure, so you go out and get the best that agree with you. What about those that disagree, that are just as good or even better?  Do we listen to them?  I have a very good idea about that answer.  ;o) 

Answer this....  I stated that mortgage applications were down like 14%...  what does that mean?  Sure, it includes refinances... but what about the real estate market that would help get our economy going in the right direction?  Just food for thought.

I agree with the comments that real estate is local.  Secondly, I do think that prudence should be the rule of the day.  In other words, I agree with you Lewis.  Credit cards should be cut up and debt eliminated.  I'm not one to preach fear, but we need to take responsibility for the direction of our own ship.  I, like Paul, am feeling a bit of a surge in my purchase business.  However, that doesn't eliminate the fact that real estate is local and that prudence and responsiblity need to be the actions for not only those in the industry, but with all Americans in general. 

That's another fine mess you've gotten us into Ollie!!!!!

If I had to take a stab at it from my very limited knowledge, I'd say things aren't going to snap back soon. Months ago I wasn't sure things would ever progress, do to myriad reasons. I'm busier then usual, do to several factors.

As far as optimism, I think we as lenders/agents could continue to do "ok" or even well if people stayed positive. I think just as many buyers can be scared away as encouraged by things like the FTHB credit.

Probably get a little worse before it gets better. Guidelines are still tightening.

Good originators will weather this.... And the good news is that the bad ones WON'T!!!!

You are sooooo right about the personal debt.

Here you go Lewis - from Forbes just today:

"Rising unemployment, a shrinking economy and falling home prices have left U.S. consumers increasingly unable or unwilling to pay credit card bills and home equity lines of credit. Though the headline numbers don't look so bad, the details suggest that financial companies face more and growing credit losses through the second half of the year."

Tom Burris won a cap on Social Media Edge today - he's RICH!

Lewis,

You make some solid points there. The economy still has some serious imbalances and it'll take some time to get them sorted out. There is hope so long as mortgage rates stay low.

Does JW work for fantasylandmortgage.com
?!?!?!?

Oh, yeah, they imploded.

LOL

I work for a mortgage banker.... and I have to agree that the aproval conditions are easier than those at a brokerage. But to say that business is better because you changed companies is a little naive. My business is good because of my contacts. My business is good because I treat my clients well(they refer people to me)

My business is not good because of who I work for.

As far as the economy goes.... I am NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER going to give off some 'pie in the sky' positive outlook on the market to my clients..... like jw apparantly does....  unless it is the truth. Right now.... it wouldn't be the truth. The economy is not good, the V.P. said so yesterday.
The housing market is still in the crapper.
Debt is up and savings are low.

My advice? Buy less house and invest/save the difference.

or

Go take the advice of some 'pie in the sky' hack loan officer who doesn't care about his clients best interest.

JW-  It seems like you are grinding the preverbial axe, more than anything here..You are the one that is coming off sour grapes..and I dont know why?/  Just my insights..no fact to back it up...

You have attempted, and in some ways..successfully...to change the whole though process behind this blog.

I would suggest writing your own blogs, and being prepared for the same kind of criticism.

Blog threads on the other hand, are a very good way for many of us to learn.  I learn every single day here on AR, and I have 20 years lending experience. 

I do agree with you that negativity has to be set aside...but with the way Nancy Pelosi, Obama, and their "team" handle things...is complain about it, as loud as possible, make sure the "common" man heres you and THINKS they are fixing things to help you".  Until that and the liberal news media change, the negativity will always be there! 

I thought this blog was about an opinion that the crisis and market might be worse than we are being led to believe?

The current Administration isnt squawking, because NOW they dont stand to gain..only lose!  - Bucky

My business is up but I am working my butt off trying to get them closed I would say the increase is directly related to the many folks who have left our industry.

I do get sick and tired of hearing news reports about how our local market may have hit bottom. No way ... we are still falling and the shadow inventory is just starting rear it's ugly head. I have got several investors who can no longer buy because of job lost or furlough day pay reduction.

Every day I stay away from the news reports and just buckle down and do the work. I try not try to stop and look up ( I did that in 2007 and part of 2008 watching the mortgage world as we know it crumble around us).

I try and focus on the fact that more millionaires were made during the Great Depression than any other time in history. I try and find the niche groups who are in the market and focus my attention there!

Great conversation here... thanks for the post!

Erin