Boise Real Estate Prediction: July Sales

By
Real Estate Agent with Silvercreek Realty

 

Predicting the Boise Real Estate MarketIf you read my last article about making predictions for Boise Real Estate, you’ll remember that making predictions in real estate is risky business but I’ve gone ahead and decided to do it anyhow.

My first prediction is going to be pretty conservative.   Rather than having you wait until the middle of August to know how many homes sold in July, I am going to tell you today!

This prediction is going to be tough because we currently have nearly double the pending contracts last month than there were the year before.  So, the actual sales could be higher than I am going to predict if they wind up closing in the next 15 days.  Chances are though, they wont because I have a feeling that many of them are ’short-sales’ which could take longer.

This prediction is based on Ada County Re-sale Single Family Homes.  If you’d like other predictions, let me know and I’ll put them together for you.

My Prediction For Total Sold Homes In The Month Of July

  • I predict that the sales in July will follow suite of the last 5 years and drop about 7-10% from the highest selling month of the year which is June.  Last month 462 re-sale homes sold and this month, I predict that 415-430 re-sale homes will close for the month of July.

There, I said it!           (Although I hope I’m wrong!)

Why I Could Be Right

Traditionally, going into the month of July, we peak for the  summer market and from there, the total amount of sales drop.  With exception to 2005, sales dropped as normal in July but then in August, they rose sharply and then dropped as usual.

Why I Could Be Wrong

As I mentioned before, there is a significantly higher amount of pending sales in the pipeline – 67% higher to be more accurate.  If these are set to close this month, we will actually break out of a 5 year trend and have July become a better month than June.  I hope this happens!

Keep your eyes open for my next prediction and in the mean time, please consider who might benefit from the services that I provide and who may enjoy reading what I write.

 

See this article at the source: Boise Real Estate Prediction: July Sales

Comments (4)

Suesan Jenifer Therriault
JTHIS-Professional Home Inspection Team - Blakeslee, PA
"Inspecting every purchase as if it were my own".

Would it be rude to say that I hope you're wrong on this one. I'm just thinking of all the Realtors over there and the low numbers ... ouch.

Jul 16, 2009 10:42 AM
Aaron Catt
Silvercreek Realty - Boise, ID
Boise Real Estate

No, please, I hope I'm wrong too!  Definitely take a look at the article I wrote on making predictions to begin with.

Few Realtors will do it because they don't want to risk a thing, but on the same hand they are totally willing to try and predict interest rates going up and are willing to share that because being wrong doesn't sting. 

Im willing to stick my neck out and be human and in the process become very knowledgeable about the stats and my local market. Hopefully people will see that I'm looking at market stats from an angle that goes beyond the typical 'cut and paste' of the local MLS stats.  Anyone can do that.

Jul 16, 2009 12:26 PM
Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Aaron,

I love the graphic.  Was that from www.Imagechef.com?

Mike in Tucson

Jul 16, 2009 04:52 PM
Aaron Catt
Silvercreek Realty - Boise, ID
Boise Real Estate

Thanks Mike,

It was from istockphoto.com

Jul 17, 2009 04:41 PM