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Real Estate Market News: Things looking up both nationally and for Idaho

By Gary Lirette

Services for Real Estate Pros

July 28, 2009 07:17 AM

Finally, some good news for Sandpoint, IDaho's outlook and our national condition.

By Gary Lirette, host of North Idaho Business radio show on KSPT and KBFI, and REALTOR® for Tomlinson Sandpoint Sotheby's International Realty

July 28, 2009

Home prices show signs of stabilizing in May
Widely watched index shows first month increase in almost three years

According to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities, reported by MSNBC on July 28, 2009

Housing construction hits a 7-month high
Sign builders regaining confidence as emerge from housing bust

Construction of new U.S. homes rose in June to the highest level in seven months, reported by MSNBC July 17, 2009

New-home sales soar 11 percent in June
Largest monthly increase in more than eight years, Commerce Dept. says

According to MSNBC reported on July 27, 2009

LA Times really likes Coeur d'Alene and Schweitzer Mountain Ski Resort
According to the LA Times Travel section, our part of the Inland NW is a "relaxing lakeside retreat" as reported on July 25, 2009

June 25, 2009

With the U.S. unemployment rate currently at 9.1%, the 7.8% rate in the state of Idaho seems generously low, though this is a 22-year high. Unemployment in Bonner County is still lower than the national level at 8.6%, with neighboring Kootenai County at 8%. The summer tourist business is experiencing a slow start, but with gas prices low and people looking to make more regional trips the vacation norm being forecasted, our summer season should hold its own. This means that at least a few more summer hires to bring the rate down even further. Construction is also moving forward, though not booming by any measure. Certainly the North Idaho region is faring better than our biggest neighbor: Spokane. They have an even higher number of unemployed than the national average, approaching double digits at 9.4%.

Even our real estate market is doing considerably better than last year. With homes in every other county in Idaho losing value in the last year, Bonner County has had a modest increase of just over 1%. Our pending sales as of today are at 167, though 115 of those are for homes and condos. With 282 closed sales since January 1, 2009, we are on target to match or exceed the 907 closed sales from last year. The hardest sell this year seems to be land parcels, much because there are fewer banks making land loans, and the ones that are continue to require stellar credit and 25 - 30% down.

Bottom line is that while we are not jumping up and down for joy in Sandpoint, we aren't as bad off as the rest of the country. In fact, according to Economy.com and Moody's, Idaho will be one of five states that will lead America out of the recession by the fourth quarter 2009. Read the article below.

Five States That Will Lead US Out of Recession

Posted By: Cindy Perman | Writer

cnbc.com

03 Jun 2009 | 03:03 PM ET

If you're not prepared to go to Australia to ride out the recovery, great news! A new report shows the five U.S. states poised to lead the nation out of recession.

You might want to get out your hiking boots and trail mix because most of the states are out in the northwest: Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Texas and Washington.

Those are the states where job growth is expected to sprout first - in the fourth quarter of this year - according to Moody's Economy.com, which conducted the survey.

The criteria for the survey included the labor market, income, credit quality/banking, real estate and consumer spending. Moody's conducts a regional employment forecast as well as an "adversity index" to gauge the status of state economies.

In the case of the northwestern states, the reason they got picked is because of their high concentration of high-tech companies, Moody's economist Andrew Gledhill said. Analysts expect a pick-up in tech spending as the recession gets going.

"[W]e feel that pent-up demand for high-tech equipment that has been furthered in part by the financial crisis could benefit states with these kinds of links," Gledhill said.

As for Texas , it was the oil industry: The strength of the industry made the lone-star state one of the last states to join the recession, and therefore will make it among the first out.

Housing was another factor: All five states had better-than-average household credit, which left them in shallower holes than other states, like, say, California .

Don't worry, California . You'll be back.

And, in case you're wondering where your state is in the lineup, Moody's has come up with the next waves of states to start showing signs of recovery.

The second wave, expected to hit in the first quarter of 2010, includes a lot of southern states-and Dakotas . That group includes: Alabama, Georgia, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota and South Dakota.

This group had relatively minor recessions that affected cyclical industries like manufacturing, Gledhill said, and should be able turn those minor recessions into minor recoveries when the economy starts to turn.

"Plus, housing has not been as much a factor for some of this group, which is such a hindrance elsewhere," Gledhill explained.

The third wave, expected to show growth in the second quarter, is all across the map. Those states are: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Tennessee and Wyoming.

If your state wasn't mentioned - sorry - it's in the remaining 31, which isn't likely to start popping until the third quarter of next year.

The most sluggish growth is in the northeast (ahem, Wall Street), midwest (*cough*cough* GM ), and Florida (enough said).

Gledhill said the impact of the housing crisis could also be a factor in California , Florida , Arizona and Nevada , causing those states to be slow to recover.

There was only one state that, as of the end of March, still had enough growth that it wasn't technically in recession.

Can you guess what it is?

You betcha, it's Alaska!

Pony Treats:

Down-But Not-Under. Australia, dubbed the best place to ride out the recession, really dodged a bullet on this one: Its economy actually grew last quarter, meaning it never officially entered recession, Reuters reports.

URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31086859/

March 18, 2009

The stock market was up all week. MSNBC reported on March 18, 2009 that "Stocks had their fifth advance in six days Tuesday after a surprisingly strong report on home construction and building permit applications. Since the rally began last week, the Dow is up 849 points, or 13 percent."

Housing starts were up 22 Percent according CNBC (http://www.cnbc.com/id/29734541).

Add to that on March 11, 2009 CNN reported applications for new mortgages are up 11%. (http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/11/real_estate/mortgage_applications.reut/index.htm)

Bonner County is the only county in the whole state of Idaho that is not a declining market for housing prices, according to Jack Dyck, VP of Mountain West Bank.

Locally, home prices are going back up, unemployment is still lower than other areas, and is historically normal.

On Sunday Ben Bernanke took the bull by the horns, sounding very reassuring on 60 Minutes, and the Fed will be releasing their latest guidance today.

Another nice boost is the reappearance of cheap airline tickets. With gas prices being so much lower, airline flights have finally followed suit.

There has been so much bad news lately it was nice to note that CBS News has changed their motto to "CBS News is Very Good News."

How about the flack over AIG? Didn't the majority of this money go out during the Bush Administration? While the current administration owns responsibility for 30 billion more going to this behemoth, the lack of oversight started with the previous congress and president. President Obama's Geitner made the same mistake.

Obama recently unveiled his plans for helping small businesses, and stimulus money is already hitting North Idaho with the hiring of firefighters to help keep the danger levels down.

Add to that our unemployment rates for Idaho are among the lowest in the West, and Bonner County is the lowest in the region.

Good news? You Bet!

Gary Lirette, REALTOR® & host of the radio shows North Idaho Business as well as North Idaho Arts on KSPT & KBFI in Sandpoint & Bonners Ferry. When you need your real estate questions answered...