Did we see a housing market bottom? From the stats I am seeing we just might have seen it.
Our MLS system (Multiple Listing Service) after every month sends us statistics that go back 4 years. By going back that far it takes out the unusual highs and lows that could happen on any given month.
The three most compelling charts are days on market, median sale price and average selling price per square foot.
Let’s start with days on market. The trend line on this chart shows a rather steep incline. In July of 05′ we had an average of 78 days on market. By March of 08′ we averaged 161 days. The next few months the days on market average started to head down only to turn right back up and again hit 161 days on market during the month March of 09′. This number hit right on the 4 year trend line. Since then we have been below the trend line and last month we had an average days on market of 142. The trend line was right at 161 days. Will we see this trend line start to level off?
The next and most important to sellers is the median sale price. This trend line has been declining for over 4 years. We saw a significant drop in the median price in February. We hit a median price of $165,000. This was way below the 4 year trend line which was about $193,500. Since that time the median price has jumped to $200,000. Rising above the trend line for the first time in 8 months.
The last chart I find of major interest is the selling price per square foot. Again February saw the average selling price per square foot drop to the lowest in over 4 years. We bottomed at $115.20 per square foot. Since then prices have rebounded nicely to $131.05. This is right on the 4 year trend line. Will that line be resistance or will July break through and then use that trend for support?
We will get our July figures in about 3 weeks so it is going to be interesting to see what happens. From what I personally see and from talking to other professionals in the business I think the numbers will all go in the direction we want them to go. This is good news for everyone. Let’s hope the trend is our friend and the housing market continues to improve.
For the actual charts please email me at email@example.com and I will be glad to send you a copy.