The experts believe the sales bottomed in January, but they believe the prices will continue to decline nationally 9% to 12% this year.
Two negative indicators are the lack of end user demand and the swollen inventory to sales ratio.
Mortgage finance is better than it was 8 months ago. the Mortgage Bankers Association Index of mortgage applications for home purchases is near 10 year lows and down 30%.
There is about a 9 month supply of inventory; in a healthy market the supply would be about 6 months.
Some experts quote a figure as high as 50% of all home sales as distressed homes (short sales and foreclosures). This stat seems a little high to me.
Now for the good news; Housing starts and permits are at a post-war low. Building permits are at less than 1/3 of their 10 year average. Mortgage rates are about 5%, the lowest in 40 years. Falling home prices and low interest rates have created record affordability.
Are there any people reading this that would make a prediction? Agree? Disagree?
I have some concerns nationally; but in my local market we are dong great!