Has Real Estate Hit The Bottom in College Station,Texas?

Real Estate Agent with Century21 Beal Inc.

The experts believe the sales bottomed in January, but they believe the prices will continue to decline nationally 9% to 12% this year.

Two negative indicators are  the lack of end user demand and the swollen inventory to sales ratio.

    Mortgage finance is better than it was 8 months ago. the Mortgage Bankers Association Index of        mortgage applications for home purchases is near 10 year lows and down 30%.

    There is about a 9 month supply of inventory; in a healthy market the supply would be about 6 months.

    Some experts quote a figure as high as 50% of all home sales as distressed homes (short sales and foreclosures). This stat seems a little high to me.

    Now for the good news; Housing starts and permits are at a post-war low. Building permits are at less than 1/3 of their 10 year average. Mortgage rates are about 5%, the lowest in 40 years. Falling home prices and low interest rates have created record affordability.

Are there any people reading this that would make a prediction? Agree? Disagree?

I have some concerns nationally; but in my local market we are dong great!

Comments (11)

Bill Lauler
Chase Realty LLC - McLean, VA
Associate Broker,CIPS,CRB,SRES,GRI

 Hi Robert , has real estate hit bottom. I guess that depends where your business is our market in Northern Virginia soared in the hay day,but now it has dropped in price close to 25% to 34% across the board. As far as the stimulus goes.Have youseen the $4500. for the clunkers if you bring in your car for a new car. Why did the government not think this could work for real estate as well.

Aug 04, 2009 02:45 PM
Ricki Eichler McCallum
CastNet Realty - Corpus Christi, TX
Broker,GRI,ABR, e-Pro, TAHS

Hi Robert,  Our area is busy, not just my office but all the offices in town.  The inspector I used today told me he was busier than ever and could barely keep up. He didn't know how long he could keep up the pace he is working.  I feel the same way.

Aug 04, 2009 02:59 PM
Robert Ott
Century21 Beal Inc. - College Station, TX

Hello Annie, In my opinion the markets that soared are the one's taking the biggest hit on declining prices. The "Clunker" money give-away is not a wise decision.  God help us if the government continues to "think"!

Aug 05, 2009 03:00 AM
Robert Ott
Century21 Beal Inc. - College Station, TX

Good Morning Ricki, Glad to read the Hill Country of our great state is doing well! My grandfather always told me to make hay while the sun shines. You get tired but it is a "good" tired. Thanks for your comments.

Aug 05, 2009 03:04 AM
Karl Peidl
Moorestown, NJ
Accredited Loan Consultant

Robert - The only way to know when we've hit the bottom is by looking back after it has passed.  I think now is the bottom as far as affordability.  There are several signs that we will start to see rates increase (inflation and the government bond buying program ending to name a couple).  If rates go up, it could counter-act any additional drop in prices.

Aug 24, 2009 05:19 AM
Robert Ott
Century21 Beal Inc. - College Station, TX

I agree with you Karl; thanks for commenting.

Aug 26, 2009 04:00 AM
Todd Clark
eXp Realty LLC - Tigard, OR
Principle Broker Oregon

I think the number of active listings right now is even higher than the 50% mark for distressed property. But, the real tale of the tape is the fact that 80% of the pending and solds for the past 2 months are non-distressed properties. (I think even buyers are sick of the banks)

Todd Clark - www.LivingBeaverton.com

Sep 20, 2009 12:12 AM
Robert Ott
Century21 Beal Inc. - College Station, TX

I believe your stats are the exception compared to other parts of the country; thanks for commenting Todd.

Sep 21, 2009 02:07 AM
Elizabeth Weintraub Sacramento Realtor Top 1%
RE/MAX Gold - Sacramento, CA
Put 40 years of experience to work for you

Our market in Sacramento has been bouncing around the bottom since spring. We're actually seeing price increases in the entry-level market right now.

sacramento agent

Oct 22, 2009 02:57 AM
Robert Ott
Century21 Beal Inc. - College Station, TX

The is certainly good news Elizabeth; Thanks for your comments.

Oct 22, 2009 03:18 AM
Irene Tron
Valparaiso, IN

Good to hear that your local market is doing well.  That seems to be the case in a lot of places.  I wonder if the media is just focused on the doom and gloom.

Dec 07, 2009 09:38 PM