Have we hit bottom in Tucson Arizona? I'm an Optimist

Mortgage and Lending with Sunstreet Mortgage LLC. Licensed Mortgage Professional NMLS# 222004

I read a lot of information relating to how the housing market is still tumbling down and as many in Real Estate have said, "it's all local". We really don't know where the bottom is until we have lifted off towards recovery.

There is nothing wrong with being a realist on the subject. I know that there are a new wave of foreclosures coming, I know the Government isn't going to continue to buy up Mortgage Backed Securities forever and I know that unemployment is a variable whose impact we won't be able to gauge yet.

With all that in mind I am still an optimist. Home prices in Tucson have started to show signs of stabilization in the lower price ranges particularly under $200,000. The next wave of foreclosures will get absorbed just like the current wave has been. Our listed homes have declined to around 6000 or so.

There are more indicators that point to a recovery in the housing sector than in a lingering depression. Time is always the determining factor. Given enough time, we will get off the bottom. I think we already have.

What can I say, I am an optimist.


Mike Rohde

Comments (2)

Patrick Randles
Nova Home Loans - Tucson, AZ

I think we are there. If you look back a few months, we had an average sales price of $192,000. That is the lowest average since 2004. 3 months running we have gone up. Keeping my fingers crosssed.

Aug 16, 2009 11:29 AM

Thanks Pat, I agree. Hopefully we will quickly absorb the next wave of foreclosures coming as well. I do think this is about the final wave of foreclosures wrapped around the old subprime loans that may have been taken out in 2006 as an 80/20 with a 3/27 ARM and now adjusting. I guess all we can do is watch it unfold. Future unemployment will be the determining X factor going forward.

Aug 17, 2009 04:17 AM