Is there another wave of foreclosures coming???

By
Real Estate Agent with Keller Williams Premier Realty

I do a majority of my business in Inver Grove Heights, Minnesota.  It's a moderately sized city just outside of the Twin Cities.  I would characterize the area as one that may not have been as greatly affected by foreclosures as some.  More middle of the road.

Now there's been a lot of rumblings in the industry about a new wave of ARM's and ALT-A loans coming due this fall and that we may want to be prepared for another hit to our housing prices.  I've also heard that banks are now holding onto their inventory in an effort to decrease supply and ultimately raise prices. 

I will say that I have seen a decrease in inventory in our area over the last three to four months.  I've also seen increased activity in non-forelcosure home sales, which is what I specialize in (sounds funny that I now have to 'specialize' in this area).  But I'm undecided as to which story I want to believe.  I would say I lean towards the banks holding inventory since I've seen the evidence.  And if this were true, why would there be a flood of homes come this fall? 

As usual, it seems that there are plenty of 'Doom-and-Gloom' stories for everyone.  I tend to want to believe in the stories that encourage progress and improvement.  But maybe that's just the old bleeding heart social worker in me.  And this is why I turn to you.  I am interested in hearing others take on this issue.  What have you heard?  What do you believe?  The floor is yours . . .

Comments (1)

John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Brian - While the reports of banks holding thousands of foreclosures are anecdotal, I too, believe that to be the case.  And the potential wave of additional foreclosures due to ALT-A and Option Arm loans seems real when you review the data.  The size of the "wave" depends upon a number of factors.  If the government's efforts to modify loans fails to dramatically increase, that will add hundreds of thousands of foreclosures to the mix; and if banks begin releasing foreclosures more rapidly, that will add even more. 

Anyone who knows the answers to those questions can get rich, but my guess is that the pace of foreclosures will increase this fall, just not quite the flood that some have predicted. And that prediction is probably worth the pixels it takes to post this comment.

Aug 16, 2009 09:06 AM

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