Looking for input here SWFL Market

Just got this via an email newsletter form a local Broker - who got it from a local broker

Thought I would pass it along.



The Realtors in all the counties of Southwest Florida have developed a consolidated MLS system that covers Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee and Collier Counties, that is, the zone from Sarasota to Naples/Marco Island. This system is saying that at the end of May there were 40,192 houses for sale and that May sales were 1,431 houses. That means that there are 28 months of inventory in Southwest Florida. A "normal" market has six months of inventory. Nationally, there is just over 7 months of inventory.



All of Southwest Florida has a large number of second homes and pre-retirement homes that represent between 20 and 30 percent of the total housing stock( 202,000 housing units in

2005 ). When prices are going up most of these houses are not for sale. When prices started to decline, many of these houses were put on the market. This situation combined with the general overbuilding in the zone is making it hard to bring down the inventory levels of unsold houses to something approaching normal levels.



On the Port Charlotte, North Port, Punta Gorda MLS there were 6,600 houses for sale at the end of 2006, there have been 1,200 house sales this year but inventories only dropped to

6,229 as of the end of May. The number of house sales is only down about 33 percent from 2005 and 2006 sales levels but house inventory levels are over five times higher than previous years in terms of months of sales.



The result of all the above is that house prices remain under pressure and builders have slowed down their activities by 80%. House prices have dropped 25% since this time last year and selling prices are usually below the cost of construction. Until builders start buying lots for new construction, land prices will not recover.



How Long Will it Be Before Builders Start Buying Land?



If the population of Southwest Florida continues to grow at 3% per year and the proportion of second homes doesn't decline, builders won't need any significant number of building lots until 2010
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Jeff Tumbarello

H. G. Wells - "Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe."