1-3 ?

You have a 1-in-3 chance of losing your house to foreclosure if you got an adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, in 2004 through 2006 that had an initial teaser rate of less than 4%.

If you got a subprime ARM in that period, you started out with a higher rate, and that puts you at less risk. You have a 1-in-8 chance of losing your home.

That's the takeaway message from a densely detailed report by Christopher Cagan, director of research and analytics for First American CoreLogic. Cagan's study focuses on 8.4 million ARMs that were originated in 2004, 2005 and 2006. About 1.1 million of those borrowers will lose their homes in the next six to seven years because of payment shock brought on by rate resets or loan recasting, Cagan estimates.

Cagan assumes that property values will remain relatively flat from their December 2006 levels. If house prices fall -- and in many markets, they already have fallen since the start of the year -- foreclosures will be higher than his estimates. If house prices rise, there will be fewer foreclosures than forecast. Each 1% rise or drop in house prices will translate into a decrease or increase of roughly 70,000 in foreclosures. These numbers are very scary!