Knoxville, Tennessee real estate sales; are they finally going up?

By
Real Estate Agent with RE/MAX Shoreline New Hampshire & Maine

The National Association of Realtors says: “For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row.”


So is the good news really good news or maybe just a seasonal 'bump' that happens around this time every year and will soon revert back to business as usual (relatively speaking)?

Here's a graph comparing Knoxville, Tennessee area sales through July of 2009 to previous years

knoxville & Farragut Tennessee real estate sales compared to previous years, provided by jim lee, knoxville tn area realtor

So yeah, Knoxville, Tennessee area sales have increased every month so far this year. HOWEVER (and it seems there is usually a "however"), if you compare sales this year to historical sales data for the past 4 years, there were up almost every month following the previous month up unti about April-May and then they started dropping again.

The very simple reason behind this phenomena besides real estate sales being very localized, is that sales are also very seasonal as well in additional to being tied to the health of local economies. Look at the historical data in the graph above.

Typically sales are lowest in December, January, and February. Then they begin rising in March building up to a peak in most places by mid summer and then they start dropping off again until the reach the mid winter low points.

So why do more people buy and sell houses in the spring and summer than in the fall and winter? There are lots of reasons but some of the more common are these:
  • Parents like to buy and/or sell in the spring/summer timeframe because the kids are typically out of school and don’t have to be moved from one school district to another in mid-term.
  • Lots of homebuyers prefer shopping for a home in the warmer months because there is usually a larger selection of houses to choose from, the weather is more pleasant to get out and look, and since the days are also longer, there is more time to look around both after work during the week and on weekends.
  • Companies that transfer employees also try to do more of their job shifting in the summer months for the same reasons. Bottom line; sales are up compared to previous months in 2009 but still way down compared to the same months in previous years.

Under Creative Commons License: Attribution
Posted by

Jim Lee , REALTOR®, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS)

http://JimLee.com  RE/MAX Shoreline

100 Market St., Suite #200, , Portsmouth, NH 03801 Phone: (603) 431-1111 x3801

Visit New Hampshire Maine Real Estate.com to search homes, get Seacoast area information, and find out how great living on the New Hampshire and southern Maine Seacoast really is.

 

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Rainmaker
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Lou Ludwig
Ludwig & Associates - Boca Raton, FL
Designations Earned CRB, CRS, CIPS, GRI, SRES, TRC

Hi Jim

Looks like your market is headed in the right direction.

Good luck and success.

Lou Ludwig

Aug 24, 2009 02:18 AM #1
Rainmaker
599,889
Jim Lee
RE/MAX Shoreline - Portsmouth, NH
Portsmouth NH Realtor, Portsmouth, NH

So far it's headed in the right direction Lou but I'm anxious to see what happens next month and again in November when the tax credit expires.

Historically our market has started downward in August even in the great years.

Aug 24, 2009 02:30 AM #2
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Jeff Dowler, CRS
Solutions Real Estate - Carlsbad, CA
The Southern California Relocation Dude

Jim - we have seen similar trends, but the market has been so weird for the last 4 years that it's hard to know what trends are any more. I think we will see a shift once thetax credit goes away, unless it gets extended. And here we have a foreclosure moratorium that will be ending withthe expectation of many more REOs in Q4. ONe thing we can say with certainty - things will change.

Jeff

Aug 24, 2009 03:19 AM #3
Rainmaker
434,738
Dick and Dixie Sells
Sells Real Estate, LLC - Trinity, FL
Realtors, Tampa Bay Florida Homes For Sale

We have seen similar action here but have alot of REO properties looming in the shadows. Hope the Knoxville market is definitely turning. We have a daughter and son in law that are both UT graduates. GO VOLS!

Aug 24, 2009 03:34 AM #4
Rainmaker
1,142,035
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time

Jim, I guess we already knew that. NAR will spin it anyway they can. They also don't mention that most of this surge is because of the low priced distressed properties. Sales are up because values are way down. Now I will say that if this trend keeps up for another 4-5 months it will be avery good thing.

Aug 24, 2009 10:25 AM #5
Rainmaker
599,889
Jim Lee
RE/MAX Shoreline - Portsmouth, NH
Portsmouth NH Realtor, Portsmouth, NH

Yep, one sure thing here. "The more things remain the same, the more they change."

I see a big dump of foreclosures early next year as lenders try to clear their books somewhat and write off more bad deals.

Aug 25, 2009 02:53 AM #6
Ambassador
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Renée Donohue~Home Photography
Savvy Home Pix - Allegan, MI
Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer

Lookin good!  Our sales are up up up and I am curious (when we get our dump) where we will be after the first time buyer's tax credit.  I am optimistic!

Sep 04, 2009 12:34 PM #7
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Rainmaker
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Jim Lee

Portsmouth NH Realtor, Portsmouth, NH
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