Year 2000 Census: This pegged the population of Mill Valley (CA Real estate) at 13,615 with 6,281 total housing units, 2.2 people per house, and a mean income of $134,116. (Please see chart below.) The next census will be out within a year. Mean income data can tell us a lot about home prices, such as whether the implied average home prices are in line with Fair Value estimates, current average prices, or historical prices. For instance:
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▶ Estimated 2009 average household income for Mill Valley is $180,000
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▶ Averare incomes imply Mill Valley can support SFR prices at $1.33m
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▶ My fair value estimate for average home prices is $1.365
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▶ Current prices are hovering -15% below at around $1.15m
This means several things, i.e., the lack of high-end sales is dragging average prices down. The lower end of the market is much stronger, specifically $800k-$1.2m, andis hot right now. Most importantly, as long as incomes, taxes and demand remain in relative proximity, prices should come back to near our Fair Value estimate.
Current Inventory: The Mill Valley real estate market above $1.85m, like all Marin towns, has been very slow since Oct. '08. Mill Valley average home prices have dropped 19% from their peak last year, and it now takes 103 days (and several excruciating price drops) to sell a home over $1.85m.
| Address | Sale Price | sq ft | $/sqft | Days on Mkt |
| 51 Park Avenue | $860,000 | 1606 | 535 | 140 |
| 724 Alta Vista Road | $870,000 | 1218 | 714 | 40 |
| 319 Ricardo Road | $875,000 | 1598 | 548 | 127 |
| 354 Woodside Avenue | $879,500 | 1554 | 566 | 37 |
| 208 Corte Madera Avenue | $899,000 | 1713 | 525 | 48 |
| 93 Eldridge Avenue | $900,000 | 2061 | 437 | 16 |
| 200 Chapman Road | $900,000 | 1701 | 529 | 31 |
| 911 Centro Way | $908,600 | 1780 | 510 | 94 |
| 67 Meadow Drive | $920,000 | 1560 | 590 | 42 |
| 933 Greenhill Road | $925,000 | 1908 | 485 | 83 |
| 39 Millay Place | $925,000 | 2410 | 384 | 86 |
| 135 Reed Boulevard | $925,000 | 2706 | 342 | 104 |
| 32 Milland Drive | $935,000 | 2158 | 433 | 107 |
| 207 Gibson Avenue | $945,000 | 2521 | 375 | 107 |
| 75 Woodside Lane | $950,000 | 2756 | 345 | 58 |
| 132 Richardson Drive | $950,000 | 1975 | 481 | 138 |
| 30 Monte Cimas Avenue | $959,000 | 1628 | 589 | 140 |
| 98 Ryan Avenue | $960,000 | 1650 | 582 | 59 |
| 359 Marion Avenue | $973,150 | 2577 | 378 | 127 |
| 363 Dolan Avenue | $975,000 | 1986 | 491 | 0 |
| 290 Greene Street | $980,000 | 1644 | 596 | 80 |
| 200 Ricardo Road | $980,000 | 1914 | 512 | 30 |
| 239 Greene Street | $1,020,000 | 2271 | 449 | 114 |
| 127 Richardson Drive | $1,020,000 | 1900 | 537 | 67 |
| 55-55 1/2 Lomita Drive | $1,025,000 | 937 | 1094 | 179 |
| 94 Sycamore Avenue | $1,038,000 | 2000 | 519 | 86 |
| 142 Manor Drive | $1,040,000 | 1380 | 754 | 23 |
| 9 Amicita Avenue | $1,050,000 | 1702 | 619 | 121 |
| 599 Edgewood Avenue | $1,050,000 | 2000 | 525 | 281 |
| 715 View Point Road | $1,050,000 | 2279 | 461 | 16 |
| 58 Carmelita Avenue | $1,050,000 | 1728 | 608 | 63 |
| 423 Durant Way | $1,055,000 | 3082 | 342 | 29 |
| 421 Wendy Way | $1,075,000 | 1860 | 578 | 131 |
| 174 Sycamore Avenue | $1,100,000 | 1838 | 598 | 96 |
| 239 Perry Street | $1,120,000 | 2640 | 424 | 31 |
| 1 Alturas Way | $1,125,000 | 2536 | 444 | 95 |
| 215 California Avenue | $1,135,000 | 1940 | 585 | 97 |
| 425 Eldridge Avenue | $1,140,000 | 1822 | 625 | 63 |
| 1030 Trillium Lane | $1,175,000 | 2515 | 467 | 83 |
| 244 Oakdale Avenue | $1,199,000 | 1338 | 896 | 51 |
| 132 Del Casa Drive | $1,200,000 | 2222 | 540 | 125 |
| 79 Elinor Avenue | $1,200,000 | 1714 | 700 | 21 |
| 24 Lower Drive | $1,200,000 | 2439 | 492 | 232 |
| 66 Cypress Avenue | $1,225,000 | 2664 | 460 | 139 |
| 24-A Shell Road | $1,225,000 | 2309 | 531 | 112 |
| 31 Sunrise Avenue | $1,380,000 | 2600 | 531 | 0 |
| 21 Lower Drive | $1,395,000 | 3051 | 457 | 16 |
| 295 Corte Madera Avenue | $1,418,000 | 2850 | 498 | 42 |
| 104 Walnut Avenue | $1,425,000 | 2266 | 629 | 193 |
| 306 Cape Court | $1,437,500 | 2139 | 672 | 50 |
| 6 Dawn Place | $1,450,000 | 3255 | 445 | 70 |
| 163 Locust Avenue | $1,470,000 | 1656 | 887 | 49 |
| 237 Del Casa Drive | $1,475,000 | 3200 | 461 | 31 |
| 162 Hillside Avenue | $1,475,000 | 2753 | 535 | 0 |
| 477 Cascade Drive | $1,480,000 | 2247 | 659 | 0 |
| 301 Rydal Avenue | $1,495,000 | 2918 | 512 | 13 |
| 36 Helens Lane | $1,520,000 | 2271 | 669 | 120 |
| 32 Edgewood Avenue | $1,550,000 | 2061 | 752 | 113 |
| 25 King Street | $1,550,000 | 2553 | 607 | 211 |
| 43 Park Avenue | $1,560,000 | 2610 | 598 | 23 |
| 378 E Streetrawberry Drive | $1,575,000 | 3019 | 522 | 144 |
| 133 Locust Avenue | $1,600,000 | 2757 | 580 | 80 |
| 146 Del Casa Drive | $1,600,000 | 2512 | 637 | 103 |
| 58 Matilda Avenue | $1,610,000 | 1873 | 859 | 115 |
| 151 Bayview Drive | $1,623,000 | 3212 | 505 | 47 |
| 560 Edgewood Avenue | $1,760,000 | 3463 | 508 | 208 |
| 107 Oakdale Avenue | $1,775,000 | 3139 | 565 | 60 |
| 532 Throckmorton Avenue | $1,800,000 | 3367 | 535 | 49 |
| 34 Renz Road | $1,800,000 | 2731 | 659 | 102 |
| 359 Lovell Avenue | $1,825,000 | 2331 | 783 | 81 |
| Averages | $1,213,711 | 2,237 | $561 | 84 |
| Above $1850 | ||||
| 130 Coronet Avenue | $1,907,500 | 3734 | 511 | 55 |
| 1000 Marin Drive | $1,925,000 | 3691 | 522 | 185 |
| 42 Vista Del Sol | $1,950,000 | 3416 | 571 | 57 |
| 8 Hilarita Avenue | $1,950,000 | 2385 | 818 | 111 |
| 122 Cornelia Avenue | $2,175,000 | 2500 | 870 | 178 |
| 94 Sunnyside Avenue | $2,275,000 | 2683 | 848 | 74 |
| 389 Throckmorton Avenue | $2,375,000 | 3260 | 729 | 25 |
| 117 Chapel Drive | $2,400,000 | 3987 | 602 | 118 |
| 235 Lauren Avenue | $2,650,000 | 3937 | 673 | 57 |
| 303 Vista Linda Drive | $2,725,000 | 4939 | 552 | 63 |
| 33 Heron Drive | $3,150,000 | 3209 | 982 | 0 |
| 324 Melrose Avenue | $3,400,000 | 3492 | 974 | 21 |
| 90 Vasco Court | $4,000,000 | 4595 | 871 | 105 |
| 8 Sandy Lane | $5,000,000 | 5324 | 939 | 133 |
| Averages | $2,705,893 | 3,654 | $747 | 84 |
Posted by David DuPont 415-867-6611
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