So you think you outsmarted the crowd because you skipped the $8,000 first time homebuyers tax credit

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smarter than the average bear

How smart do you think you are?  Do you think you can outsmart people, just because you read some good advice, yet it failed to share with you the opposite side of things. That has been one of my biggest fears and pet peeves when it comes to blogging. And another?  That many blogs are opinions, not facts, yet they sound like facts.

Janet Guilbault wrote this interesting post that makes a good point : Outsmart the crowd : Skip the $8,000 tax credit & wait to buy - She talks about skipping the first time homebuyers tax credit in hopes that you could get the house of your choice for $20,000 less. She adds that winter is around the corner and the market should be slower, which could get you that price reduction. Again, some good food for thought, yet forgetting some very key points to her opinion. And just for the fact, in my opinion, this is a risk. Are you willing to chance your $8,000 tax credit?  Let's look at this further....








two sides to every story

Again, Janet states that you should skip the $8,000 tax credit, because you could get a better deal on a house in the winter months.  And because there wouldn't be as many buyers in the market, because of the first time homebuyers tax credit of $8,000 would not be available. Overall, I feel really strongly against this kind of advice.

Here are my thoughts on why you should be careful of such advice :

  • Reduced property values - You got the house for $20,000 cheaper, and based on a $250,000 mortgage, that would save you $120 a month. So you didn't get the $8,000 tax credit. It would take you 5.5 years to save that tax credit with your monthly savings.
  • Interest Rates - Do you have a crystal ball?  Do you know where mortgage rates will be in December? You get that new house for $230,000, yet the rate increased .375 of a percent. Your new savings will now only be $64 a month. That means that it would take you 10.4 years to save that $8,000.
  • Real Estate Market - Do you know how appraisals truly work?  Do you understand that an appraisal is an opinion from a certified appraiser?  Not one house is the same and in many cases, not all appraisals of that same house are the same. I could give you many examples of specific homes in recent months, having a few different appraisals that could vary from $3,000 to $20,000 in value.
  • $8,000 tax credit in your pocket - You now have the $8,000 in your pocket 2 months after settlement. What could you do with that monies?

- Use the money to fix up the house.

- Use the money to pay off some credit cards, which could save you more money in the long run.

- Possibly pay back some debt to those that helped you get into your new home.

- Save for any housing emergencies that could happen at any moment.

- Ryan Shaughnessy, in comment # 11, states that you could use the tax credit to pay for 12 months of your mortgage payments. Imagine that, no mortgage payments for a year.

  • Waiting for a possible increase to the tax credit, possibly a $15,000 tax credit - So you take Janet's advice and say to yourself, maybe they will extend the tax credit or raise it to $15,000. Ouch, in my opinion, that is a huge risk. If you are actually in the market now, why play the market? If you come across your home now, but it now, don't roll the dice.
  • Real Estate Market - Each real estate market is different. In my opinion, even the experts can't truly predict what the housing market will do. Some have said that we have hit bottom. Some say it could be a year. But then again, in some markets, prices have increased already. In Janet's post and in a few of the comments, some people have stated that there will be a correction to this. Again, it's an opinion, not a fact.
  • $20,000 reduced value - You don't physically see this money. You don't get 20k in hand. And what happens if the house was over-priced to begin with? What happens if values don't increase in 5 years? The only equity is that equity that you build yourself. In 5 years, you knocked your principal balance down by $16,000.
  • Mortgage Programs - you can buy now, but could you buy 3 months from now?  You have a 659 credit score and what happens it goes to 660, mandatory? No more home. Steve Kappre talks about this in his blogs.




Conclusion :  Janet ended her post with this ... "If you save $20,000 on your house, do you care if you sacrifice an $8000 tax credit? Probably not. (But don't expect anyone in the real estate industry to talk about this until AFTER the rebate ends)."

Well, I will still be talking about it, no matter if the tax credit continues or ends. I am all about educating the consumer, sharing both perspectives on real estate and mortgage issues. And yes, I would care if I sacrificed the tax credit, especially based on what I stated above. Especially if interest rates went up a half of a percent by December. In my opinion, I can go to Vegas and or Atlantic City to gamble. But why gamble on free money, money that you don't have to pay back. We are in a very tight economy now. I don't think many of you have money to gamble with as you did several years ago. (I don't want to get into the statement of free money, because yes, as tax payers, we are paying for that)

Lastly, excellent time for first time homebuyers. Home values are lowest in the last 5 years, with interests being close to the lowest in several decades, and $8,000 given to you if you qualify.




IMPORTANT REMINDER – The $8,000 first time homebuyers tax credit ends on November 30th, 2009



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Re-Blogged 11 times:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
  1. Erik Hitzelberger 09/08/2009 03:38 PM
  2. Ryan Shaughnessy 09/08/2009 04:39 PM
  3. Lori Mode 09/08/2009 05:29 PM
  4. Gerry Suarez Jr. 09/09/2009 12:32 AM
  5. Dana Wilkinson 09/09/2009 01:54 AM
  6. Tom Burris 09/09/2009 02:16 AM
  7. Sandy McAlpine 09/09/2009 02:23 AM
  8. Jared Tafua 09/09/2009 02:23 AM
  9. Ceci Burklow 09/09/2009 04:22 AM
  10. Gene perez 09/09/2009 06:05 AM
  11. Nick Good 09/09/2009 07:01 AM
  12. Julie Chapman 09/11/2009 10:50 PM
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Janet Guilbault
Guild Mortgage - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Cory, you have misinterpreted something in my post.

The reason I said real estate people would not talk about this until after the rebate ends is NOT because they would expect a higher commission by selling a higher priced property (you said this rubbed you the wrong way) It had nothing to do with commissions.

The reason is because I feel it is a natural thing (as you can see from all the comments on Jeff's post) for real estate agents to believe in advising clients to BUY NOW instead of risking BUYING LATER.

Most would rather not discuss the possiblity of lower rates, lower prices, or a bigger rebate. They like the bird in hand mentality and defend this position. I think discussing all the possiblities gives any person in the real estate business far more credibility, even it it delays your sale.

There is a flip side of this coin, and right now no one knows what it will be. But when the coin is flipped, you don't want to be the guy who loses because you advised your client to go in the wrong direction.

Easy solution? Tell them all the variables and let them make up their own mind. That is how to earn respect in my opinion. 


Sep 09, 2009 10:30 AM #88
Janet Guilbault
Guild Mortgage - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Jeff: I think Will gave substance to my argument on a post where he is clearly in the minority.

I do however, think he is smarter than the average bear so I will stand by my comment.


Sep 09, 2009 10:40 AM #89
Jeff Belonger
Social Media - Infinity Home Mortgage Company, Inc - Cherry Hill, NJ
The FHA Expert - FHA Loans - FHA mortgages - USDA loans - VA Loans


RUTHMARIE.... . comment # 55. ... .  in my opinion, even if the prices are decreasing, you should still have marketed the tax credit. Not everyone is aware of this or it could have sparked some interest. You can't tell me that everyone is waiting for prices to come down. In my opinion, if you are a serious buyer, you buy. Don't play the market too much, it could bite you in the butt.

PAUL.... .ironically, I am a gambler in many ways.  But if I was a serious buyer, I would buy now, not wait later. Just too many variables that we don't have control of, which could cost you more later if you play that wait game. Just like those 7 months ago, when rates were low... like 4.5% with like zero points..., people said.." I am waiting for them to go lower.  okay, why?  If it makes sense now, do it now. Some lost out. So yes, we do agree on this. Overall, you make an excellent point about waiting if you are a buyer in the luxury market.  Your thinking makes some sense. Sure, higher rates would kill this kind of thinking.  But my main point of this post was the 8k that you could potentially lose out on. thanks for the thought and input.

DENISE.... . many of us agree on these same points.  And yes, different markets do matter, especially if your market is not moving in regards to prices dropping.  thanks

UNKNOWN.... . unknown variables probably could have been the gist of my blog, to have kept this very short. But we need details and explanations.

VICKIE.... . I always love showing both sides of the coin... yet so many don't in their blogs. And now if you read Janet's comments below, like comment 88 or 89. She says that those that show both sides, earn her respect. My question to her... how come she doesn't do this in her blogs then?  hhhmmm  thanks

STACY.... . comment # 60 .... . I hope so to, hence why I decided to write this blog. People just need choices, and not be shown one side of things.  And thanks for that polite compliment.


Sep 09, 2009 11:02 AM #90
Kerry Jenkins
Prime Properties - Crestline, CA

This was a great post with excellent points for getting buyers off the fence. 

Sep 09, 2009 11:27 AM #93
Steven Pahl
Keller Williams Tampa Properties - Tampa, FL
Real Estate Consultant Tampa, FL 813-319-6423

Excellent points, keep your buyer informed of the facts and let them make the decision based on their needs, not yours! 

Sep 09, 2009 12:26 PM #94
Jeff Belonger
Social Media - Infinity Home Mortgage Company, Inc - Cherry Hill, NJ
The FHA Expert - FHA Loans - FHA mortgages - USDA loans - VA Loans


JOHN O. ... comment # 61 ... . I agree, I hope all realize that each market is different. But I read some blogs and or questions answered, not everyone seems to think this or that they state this.

 You mentioned that your FHA market is taking an average of 48 days?  It should be around 30... it has nothing to do with being busy, unless you are using a broker, which could delay your closing for 45 days then. In regards to houses receiving multiple offers... I would say this is just because of FHA... how about that out of 10 similar homes, that maybe only 2 of them are veyr worthy, which would attract multiple offers. Maybe you are seeing more of these now, because that buyers market picked up.

Overall, you bring up some good and interesting points. Thanks for your feedback and let me know if you write this blog now. I would be interested.  Lastly, good to see you back and thanks for stopping by.


KENDALL... . risk vs reward should always be considered and not over-looked.  Thanks for your polite compliments.

DAN.... . I think educating the consumer and giving our opinion is all that we can do. But in this case, the other author just stated one side of things. And yes, for those realtors saying that the tax credit will probably be extended and that it might go to 15k, in my opinion, is a huge risk. I will state this over and over... if you had plans to buy and know what you want, do it now, not later.  Just too many unknown variables that could hurt you down the road.  thanks

RENEE.... . yes, inventory would be a problem. And even more so, as you stated, that sellers aren't giving concessions or that appraisals are coming in lite.  thanks for the feedback and for your input.

MIKE... . yes, I could see this happening, which scares me some.  But those prepared and on top their game, will be able to handle this.  thanks


DEBRA..... . I agree, you have to do what is right for your client.  But many think they know what is right and actually give bad or misleading advice.. or advice that is not explained from both sides of the fence. You made this statement.. "i sell homes to people who want to buy a home to love in not because they are getting o rebate..."

There is the problem that I have, because one person in this thread has stated several times, and in her blog, that people tell people to buy. Is that a blind statement or not. Sure, you will have some... but when buying a home, many are buying because they want or need to buy, depending on their circumstances. Overall, in my opinion, many buy because they love that house and have planned on buying a house. I think it's misleading to say that many came out to buy just because of the tax credit. Just my .02.


FRANCE & MARK.. comment # 68... . exactly... sure, the bill could pass, but why would you feed this into someones head, to take that risk. I would give them the info from both sides and give them my opinion. But to flat out say, just wait....  I think that is horrible advice, no matter how much you try and justify it... as two people in this thread keep doing. I take risks, but do I tell my clients to take risks?  I guess they want to play stock broker... thanks


Sep 09, 2009 12:57 PM #95
Ginger Moore
Wilkinson & Associates Realty - Gastonia, NC

Yes, I agree, buy now while you can get this $8000 tax credit.. great time for buyers!

Sep 09, 2009 12:58 PM #96
Lisa Matykiewicz
United Brokers Group - Gilbert, AZ

These are great points.  It is so hard for buyers to find exactly the right time.  I think if you are in the market, I would not risk missing out on the tax credit.

Sep 09, 2009 01:08 PM #97
Mary Ann Daniell Realtor
Coldwell Banker United, Realtors - Subsidiary of NRT LLC - Killeen, TX
Delivering Successful Results Since 1999

As you said, every market is not the same.   Our buyers need to buy NOW.. they arrive at Fort Hood looking for a home, a vacant one preferably, that we can negotiate a temporary lease on so that they can move in prior to closing.   Waiting and gambling that the tax credit will be offered again for more money is not a variable for most buyers here.  "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" especially when a government program is involved.

Sep 09, 2009 01:37 PM #98
Renée Donohue~Home Photography
Savvy Home Pix - Allegan, MI
Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer

Jeff:  If my own market was stable to buyer's market, I would be in 100% agreement with ya!  It's all local!

Sep 09, 2009 02:05 PM #99
Jeff Belonger
Social Media - Infinity Home Mortgage Company, Inc - Cherry Hill, NJ
The FHA Expert - FHA Loans - FHA mortgages - USDA loans - VA Loans


CAROLYN..... comment # 69 ... .  you make some good points... for many years, we as Americans didn't take credit and especially credit scores as seriously as we should have.  Especially when someone could have gotten a FHA mortgage with a 500 credit score a year ago. Some people are now just working on their credit, so that hurts.  Overall, it does sound like you have had some weird transactions and clients.  And sorry to hear that your market hasn't been much all year in the first place.  thanks for your input.

MARTE... .experts or not, rates could go up. A lot of it is because of the MBS's, the mortgage back securities, that they aren't as favorable as once before.  We relied on the Chinese to buy this in past years and now we are the only buyers.. and that means that we have to use our own money.  So not only are we running out of money, but low rates will create inflation, which could change into hyper-inflation, if we aren't careful.  I wrote about this... Inflation vs Deflation - Is this criminal?  thanks

JASON... . I truly love examples like this, and hence why I love crunching numbers, and supplying examples.  thanks for the compliments and for stopping by.

BECKEY... . I agree, look at things logically and consider your own risk tolerance. That's some great advice.  thanks for your feedback and for the compliment.

SHEREE... . I agree, that we should lay both sets of facts out there. I see so many that are one-sided. This author makes a comment in here stating that she respects those that do this, yet she didn't do it herself. And you hit the nail on the head, that it comes down to the clients needs. In regards to your answer, that it depends.... I don't care for those kinds of answers though, even though it might seem that way. I prefer, "consider risk and the facts involved.. and choose wisely" And yes, we can guarantee or look into the future.  thanks

MIKE... . comment # 74 ... . I just feel like a broken record, stating that many blogs are those of opinions, not stated facts.  And it sounds like your have several different types of markets in your area. I will agree on this, that this doesn't include those high priced homes, unless it fits the FHA loan limits. And yes, we will always see greedy people in any kind of market, always trying to get the best deal. Rut row... please define best. Just as you stated, that the timing has to be just right, perfect timing. And so many gamble here.  Overall, thanks for the compliment and for the kind words... and for your input.


Sep 09, 2009 02:42 PM #100
Joan Whitebook
BHG The Masiello Group - Nashua, NH
Consumer Focused Real Estate Services

I think this is very interesting... and I think it will depend on the various markets.  In NH everything comes to a standstill because of the bitter cold weather and snow... so I think the time to buy is now... who knows what the spring market will bring.

Sep 09, 2009 02:55 PM #101
Barbara Tretola
RAC Real Estate Associates, Inc. - Massapequa Park, NY

I belong to the Steve Harney group and he cautions about making assumptions. Prices are staying still here, not dropping much anymore, and there are strong indications that THE FED will soon no longer buy down the rates. Besides the Federal money we have state and local programs that will go away when the money disappears. So buyers WILL miss out if they wait to long.

Sep 09, 2009 03:55 PM #102
Mark Velasco
Sharpstone Realty, Inc - Whittier, CA
Listing Agent-Whittier & Surrounding ciities

Great post Jeff. I will get all of my Clients into a home. I would rather not take my chances that there would be no more rebates.

Sep 09, 2009 05:14 PM #103
Jeff Belonger
Social Media - Infinity Home Mortgage Company, Inc - Cherry Hill, NJ
The FHA Expert - FHA Loans - FHA mortgages - USDA loans - VA Loans


WILL... comment # 75... . I'll be honest now, I am only responding to your comments out of courtesy. I know people can say that I could have a mean streak when replying to comments, but I totally dislike your attitude because you are now putting words in my mouth. Trying to bait me for a pit bull fight.  And here is why...

You stated this in your last comment. "If you waffled and are now for the Tax Credit then ammend those posts. Don't ask me to read a previous position. The comments were made on this position."

You have accused me being pro tax credit.  I never once in this blog said that I am for or against the tax credit. You assumed... I merely stated that you should not risk the tax credit.  I am a professional loan officer and it's my job to make sure that I can do the best for all of my clients. Am I suppose to say, if you ask for the tax credit later, I won't help you with your mortgage?  I would hate for you to say yes to that, so grow up and be real. I am about to get stern in this comment, for several reasons.  Here are some of the reasons.

Yes, you do sound like a journalist, trying to bait me. You are looking for ways to back me into a corner. Using a whole sentence in capital letters and in bold is truly a form of yelling at someone. Yes, I know it could be to get your point across, but you also made the words a tad larger, which is a slight insult on top of the yelling. Overall, yes, you disagree with me, but it's obvious that you have missed my point, just as a politician would. When someone has an agenda, they try to make their point, no matter if they skip over the other persons opinions, trying to make them into facts, or trying to make it look like they are all over the board. And that is how I feel and from reading your comments, what I can sense.

Getting back to point... I already stated that this is what you said... "If you waffled and are now for the Tax Credit then ammend those posts."

The reason I told you that I was against the tax credit from day one, was because you made a comment that I was all for it. Just because I talk about it and tell people not to miss this advantage, doesn't mean that I agree with what the gov't has done. You assumed and assumptions irk the hello out of me, especially in a debate. If I tell you and show you where you are wrong, yet you don't take the time to read my take on something, but tell me that I should go back and change my stance, obviously you have one agenda, and that is to argue your point, without truly understanding who I am and my position. Again, just what politicians do, hence why I hate politics.  But that still doesn't keep me from voting, participating in rallys, and some other things, in hopes of our country getting better, not worse.


So let me spell it out for you, since you were lazy not to read some of what I was trying to tell you. And yes, I said lazy and I had to assume, but what else would it be?  Stubbornness?

I disagreed with the tax credit when it first came out, because of the ramifications that it would have on our country and our finances later in life..  short term and long term. And I listed several reasons to this. But since the gov't made the ruling, the law, I still promoted it and talked about it. Why?  Because it was still part of real estate and since it was there, I could help owners financially... I could help their dreams. We all are going to pay for it anyhow.  Now, you might jump on that comment, because it shows a weak side of me.  I feel like we are in a political debate. Or that I am running for office against you. I hate that crap. I despise the slandering and bs commericals, just to make someone look bad. So I guess I now have to defend myself and to defend some of my positions in my comments and blog, because you took the liberty to call me out on a few of them, again, just assuming. Because as a reporter, they report what they think are facts, because they always don't dig deep down to make sure they are facts... and yes, this is a fact, and I feel like you have done this with me. Why bring it up, because you talked about journalism and such.


So, hoping that we have that out of the way, so I can continue answering your reply.... if not, this has just been a big waste, because some people just won't budge because of pride and or stupidity. I have read a few comments that stated that at first, when they read Janet's blog, it sounded good and they fell to the side of agreeing with it. Now, after reading many of the things that I laid out, they said that they have changed their minds. Not saying that you need to change your mind. But obviously you are stubborn on these issues, and both you and Janet feel that realtors tell people to buy now, because they are thinking about their commissions, that since the money is there, use it. I would slightly agree that we have some realtors that do this. But not all, and that seems to be your only defense.... throwing everyone into the same pot, just because you can't read through the meaning of what some people right. That is my opinion.


I am going to skip your second paragraph, about irrational buyers and the mess that we got into. The is a whole new topic and is not the primary focus of this blog. Unless you and Janet are trying to tell me, that people should wait, not to use the tax credit, because it would do more harm. In either case, I am not going to answer that, because I truly don't know your position on that.


You then went on to say in the 3rd paragraph..."As a realist and educator maybe you could reference the economic factors that you use to rationalize the existing "gamble" as you call it. I gave you an example of Janet's claims that waiting could be better. I did not base it on any market just a hypothesis."

See, you are basing it on merely a hypothesis. Let me define hypothesis directly from Webster :

Hypothesis - a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences. and assumption or concession made for the sake of argument.


I just feel like you like to argue your points and skip over some of the basic facts. Throwing confusion to the wind. Sorry, that is how I feel.  My main point to this blog was to argue Janet's stance on the fact that you would be better off waiting it out, in order to get a better deal. I merely wanted to point out that it was not only her opinion, but irrational thinking on her part, and advice that if taken, could backfire, that it was a risk. Yet, she did not share with the public the other side of the fence, explaining what you could be giving up, for a risk that is just based on hope. She, Janet likes to think outside the box, to get more comments, even if it's probably not the most logical thing to do. She might think it is, but read these comments. I didn't brain wash anyone. I merely put out some basic facts of the situation, stating that it could hurt you if you don't think it out. You know how many people make decisions without thinking it out.??  In this case, write a blog, without thinking it out. I follow her stuff and I can say that this stuff does happen. And I am not the only one that things this. Being a good writer, a creative writer, doesn't mean that what you write is actually true, acurate, or good advice.


Onto your next statement... the 4th paragraph... you said .. "The claims you make are incomplete. That's all I was trying to illustrate. I thought I did it well and I think you may as well because YOU DID NOT DISPUTE OR COMMENT ON THE FINANCIAL CLAIMS I MADE!!!"

I have to laugh at this one, because you were probably patting yourself on the back, saying... I got him... he ignored my question/statement, so I am right. Again, just as politicians do to each other, trying to gain ground in an argument, debate, or political stance.

Let me go back to this then, since you claim I didn't answer your question.  PS>. I did... paragraph # 7...  Here is the ending of that response of mine."Keep in mind, tax credit or no tax credit...  loss of equity or no loss of equity.. specific type of mortgage... you will always reduce the principal, unless you have an interest only loan.  So you are dealing with a known and not an unknown."

My probelm with your equity stance is that no matter how you slice and dice it, you will basically have the same amount of principal reduction on what ever mortgage you take out with that interest rate. You added it to your argument, to make the savings look much better. Hence why I stated that you just added confusion to this whole argument. And then Janet chimes in, alright Will... that's what I like to see... and that adds to my other point. She didn't read into your statement, but merely agreed with it, because not only were you defending her, but that it looked great... sure it did....  the numbers looked better. But easy math...  A-B = C.  And that equation will occur with a mortgage, no matter if you are debating the tax credit or loss of property value. You brought this into the equation when it wasn't needed, unless you can show me otherwise. I do numbers for a living and I think I am damn good at it. I am not going to list some of my other blogs, and to show you how I think.... because you won't read them.  But if this was an official debate, I would show them, and use them to explain on how I crunch numbers and figures... that I do look at most things from both sides of the fence, when I do this. Now, unless I totally missed your point, which I could have, please explain again... or call me. But from what I see, it doesn't change the basics of what this blog was intended for. .Hence why I said, you just added confusion to many of the readers now.  Because people look at the bottom line in many cases to make their decisions, and they don't review how you got their. Just like on good faith estimates. Many look at the bottom line, which in my opinion, is 110% the incorrect way of reading a GFE. Want to argue that one? Because for me, that would be an easy one, since you seem to like to use numbers and figures. So, I did answer your question the first time...


In your stance that I must not understand web 2.0.... lol  Another assumption and you missed my whole point. A realtor from Texas, in a totally different market, should not be giving advice on homes in that area, due to values. Period.. if you think otherwise, then not only did you miss my point, but I am trying ti understand how you think as a realtor. Here is an easy one...  a 4 bedroom 2 bath house that has 4,000 sq feet in Northern Jersey will be a lot more than that same house in Florida. Different markets.  Even thought this realtor thinks that they are a professional, her statement was... NOT TO BUY. In all honesty, how can you give that same advice 2,000 miles away, without knowing and living that market. Do you are that real estate markets are not the same, different, all over?  Yes or No....  and it goes back to more than just her main statement. If you read my blog, as you said you did, I argue the fact that you need to ask many more questions because giving that kind of answer.  Now, that is my opinion and many will argue that. But to me, that is common sense, asking those specific questions. What I have learned, and why we are in part of the mess that we are in, many don't have that common sense.  They think they do, they don't.  I talk to loan officers, realtors, financial advisers, and other real estate related professionals all across the US on a weekly basis. Many have the same stances that I do on this, yet our current gov't goes in the opposite direction. Yes, there are two sides... but when you lay out the basics, results... and the fact that so many decisions were made very quickly, before people could get a grasp on it or them, that could lead to more negative outcomes. Let me give you an example... President Obama said that we must get the 2009 stimulus package out now... that the bill needs to be signed now. That are best economists say that if it's not down now, by tomorrow, or 3 days from now, that we will be in financial turmoil. LOL... if you couldn't read through the writing on that wall, then I really can't continue with you on these comments. If you understand my point and where I am going with that, and actually agree... or want to debate that, give me a call.


You then go on to say this.... "What ticked me off is that you are a banker. The banks have built in a security for their real estate investments known as an appraisal. Having someone overpay for a home says it is OK to throw away money to get what they want. This might just be a gamble? Maybe they should wait and see? "

I am a mortgage banker, not a bank...  and not a broker.  There is a difference between the 3. You not only are now assuming, but that you have thrown me into that group or accusing me of this.  Forget about the actual appraisal stance, on banks, and what you think they are controlling.  In my opinion, poor argument. Let's just get to the main point, the part that I said, "it's okay to pay more."  The buyer is buying what they want.  If they feel that it's worth it to them, then why get in their way?  Who is to say what it's truly worth? Sure, it's an appraiser's job... but it's also an opinion.  As I have said before, you could have 5 appraisals done...  1 comes in higher... 2 as the same value... and 2 lower. The argument would be, which one is correct. Well, you don't know this, because you usually only get one appraisal.

Overall... you are ticked off at me, even though you have me mixed up for the wrong type of company per se....An Assumption. Secondly, you argue about the appraisals, yet you are a firm believer that maybe the borrower should wait and see then...  but wait, you still need an appraisal. So let me ask you this question.  (and I am going to highlight this one in bold, because I would like your answer on this)

Jeff Belonger's question -  first, the scenario...If I find a house that I really wanted, I have been shopping for 5 months now.. I have plans and goals. The property is worth $300,000. I can settle on this house in the next month with a 5% rate and I will be getting my $8,000 tax credit in a few months.

My question to Will.... -  Are you telling me that I should wait a few months, to see if I could get a better buy for that property?


Lastly, you make this statement... "My point was that I felt you eliminated some important information. You say it's by design. That's fair.

It's the difference between Journalism and Commentary. Luckily I know the difference. It makes life much less of a gamble."


Question, do you actually know the difference?  Or is this from watching too much tv and the news?  Not trying to be smart here...just that I bet many that work in these so-called industries don't have a clue either. Journalism to me is reporting the truth. Many report what they think we need to hear, not what we want to here.  In commentary, this can be the same in many occasions. And yes, there is a difference, but not always. In many cases, it's the same, even though both have a different definition. Besides, knowing the difference between the two, how does that make life much less of a gamble?  That sounds like a broad and or generic statement. Just because you know something, doesn't always take the gamble out of something. When you have too many variables that you don't or can't control in regards to a specific issue, gambling or not, there will be risk involved... and that is part of gambling.


Overall... I do thank you for coming back and for taking the time in commenting. I also thank you for the polite compliment at the end. But I don't think I can continue, because there were several times that you attacked me on my past blogs, telling me that I need to change my stance then, when in reality, this blog above was not a stance on whether the tax credit is good or bad... but whether you should take advantage of it....  and not to just buy a house. I never stated that either, nor do many realtors that Janet says do this. That is an assumption, because many didn't go into detail. If you read my blog closely, I do mention that you should be buying the home because you want to, not just because of the tax credit. I will tell you this... I try to be very careful on how I word things... how I write my blogs... and how I fill in certain wholes, knowing that some people try to find holes in my blogs, so they can argue a point. Hence why I also share old links to blogs, to back up my stances and such.  Now, do I always fill these wholes, do all of my blogs sound clear, that you are able to understand them?  Not always, I am human. But what I won't do, it write outside the box, just to get a feature and tons of comments...  I truly try to share both sides, even if I am against one of those sides. And part of my argument was that I didn't see Janet do this and I see this amongst many other bloggers. A great example... it's like a realtor showing a home, sharing all the good things.  Yet, they feel that one of the rooms has an issue, but they don't point this out.  It happens... it's a fact of life. Just as blogging is.  And when I see this, I like to write about it, sharing the other side, and to include the side that I am debating against, so people have both sides to the topic.  So they can make an educated guess then... Just food for thought - thanks


Sep 10, 2009 12:28 AM #104
Jeff Belonger
Social Media - Infinity Home Mortgage Company, Inc - Cherry Hill, NJ
The FHA Expert - FHA Loans - FHA mortgages - USDA loans - VA Loans


GENE aka Greater Mortgage Solutions... comment # 76 ... . I think many and most of us agree with this, even though two people in this thread don't agree... which is okay. But only one of them is trying to defend their stance, yet they are all over the board. I think it's plan and simple...  do you take that risk, knowing the variables know, with those same variables being unknown later, even in a few months.

CHERYL... . I agree with your statement.. I think the argument here, from the few that say wait, is because their argument is based on realtors and loan officers that say "Buy Now".  All you can do is imply and assume based on that statement. And that ticks me off....  if they would read further, many of us say this in conjunction with... buy now if you are serious... if you have found that home.. if you need to, etc, etc.  Not to buy just to get the $8,000 tax credit. I think this is the only thing that they have to stand on, those trying to argue why you should wait, then buy now. thanks

NICK.... . I agree 110%.... but read my comment above, to Cheryl. Those that say wait, their main argument for waiting is based on a basic statement that they are assuming.  Why else would you argue the basic facts that stare us in the face. In my opinion, the only other reason would be because you are a risk taker, a gambler, and that you are using your client who is in the middle. And thanks for the compliment.

PAUL..... . we will allow a buyer to pay more than the appraised value, as long as they have the assets. I don't know of one lender that won't allow this.  More importantly, why they wouldn't. If the lender is loaning a specific percentage based on the actual appraisal, why would it matter. Just curious.. And I am sure the tax credit will be replaced. But again, why take that risk. That was the gist of my post.  Thanks for the compliment and for stopping by.

JOHN.... .   lol... well, math can be faked in several ways.  If I am comparing FHA rates to conventional rates, yet I don't include the pricing hits on the conventional side for lower credit scores and for lower LTV's... I either faked this or just didn't know... which is even worse in my opinion.  But thanks.. I love crunching numbers. Because yes, if done correctly, math and numbers can't lie.  thanks

GENE... .  good point... fantasy vs reality... that could have been the name of this blog. Just as you stated, a fantasy would be living the dream that values came down, known as risk and gambling. ;o) I like that... thanks for sharing.

NANCY.... . thanks, I love to break down things, and to try and show both sides of the fence, even if I am trying to sell one side.  thanks

CHRISTINE... . another good example. And I agree, there are always two sides to that coin. Why I wanted to write this post was because Janet never showed or shared the other side of that coin. I really do try and share both, when I write my blogs.  I think many people don't... and there are reasons why for this.  thanks

DENVER.... comment # 84... . ah, an Engineer.  ;o)  My dad was a Chemical Engineer... extremely smart and bright, but we always teased him because he lacked common sense in some cases.  But I love an analytical mind... someone that can appreciate numbers, figures, and break downs.  thanks and thanks for that polite compliment.


Sep 10, 2009 01:05 AM #105
Carla Muss-Jacobs, RETIRED
RETIRED / State License is Inactive - Portland, OR

Oh phooey . . . I just read Janet's response and it was nice!  I wanted a little scuttlebutt today! 

Sep 10, 2009 11:18 AM #106
Jean Doyle
RE/MAX House Values - Mount Arlington, NJ
Morris and Sussex NJ Real Estate

Jeff you make great points. When it comes down to it if it makes sense for someone personally to buy now then now is a great time for them to buy. There are always many other factors that go into someone decision to buy a house and most of them have nothing to do with Realtors or Loan officers.

Sep 11, 2009 03:53 AM #107
Harrison K. Long
HomeSmart, Evergreen Realty - Irvine, CA
REALTOR , GRI, Broker associate, Attorney

Jeff ... Thanks for this interesting post and rebuttal to Janet Guilbault article and her argument that it's OK to skip the $8k first time homebuyere tax credit and wait for a better opportunity.

The tax credit is a good thing for buyers who qualify. However, many such buyers here in Orange County are in the $400k home price range, and we have had investors return to the market in a big way, creating havoc with mulitiple cash offers, wiping out many people's chances to get a home.  We made offers on 7 different homes for a young couple, none of which were accepted. They got discouraged and are now waiting it out.

We don't have a crystal ball.  If interest rates to up after November 30, you were right to tell everybody to get after the tax credit now. If interest rates go down and housing inventory goes up, Janet wins.

Sep 13, 2009 05:05 PM #108
Steve, Joel & Steve A. Chain
Chain Real Estate Investments & Mortgage, Steve & Joel Chain - Cottonwood, CA

Jeff, I appreciate you view point. I believe it's safest to make and advise on decisions based upon facts known.   Certainly some types of market moves can be anticipated to some degree.  But I wouldn't want to advise a client on what may or may not happen.    I heard Joseph Kennedy quoted again the other day," Only a fool waits for top dollar".  The absolute top and bottom will always be known once they've  passed. 

Sep 14, 2009 05:07 PM #109
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